Chinook Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 well.... 956mb.. and going down. About the same pressure as the (Ohio) Blizzard of '78. This would be the storm of the (21st) century for central PA, central NY, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice clobbering of snow in these parts per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z Euro not as strong as the bomb shown but yet it shifts NW and tracks right over my head. Makes no sense to me. The northern stream wave orientation is very different on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Fair enough number of 12z GEFS have something. Of course, I know where this one may be heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The northern stream wave orientation is very different on this run. Western PV lobe looks weaker and more progressive so amplification is more tamed. Western ridge axis looks further west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice clobbering of snow in these parts per the Euro. Indeed. If it happens it's almost hard to fathom how cold it could get behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bring it baby. This could go over 12" for western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ILN AFD - Sonds like they are thinking an I-71 cutoff. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY WILL BE COLD BUT PROBABLY FREE FROM PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SINCE MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA...CUTTING ACCUMULATIONS CONSIDERABLY THERE. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE COLD TEMPS...WHICH WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would like to say congrats Madison, but with the strength of that polar air dropping in, the southern and eastern parts of the subforum might be the winners on this one. Now if only the WTOD stays east of CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would like to say congrats Madison, but with the strength of that polar air dropping in, the southern and eastern parts of the subforum might be the winners on this one. Now if only the WTOD stays east of CMH. It would be classic to see the WTOD into Ohio the day before a historic arctic outbreak. To be fair, though, it wouldn't actually match climo. There actually aren't many true arctic outbreaks (with lows passing -10) that had significant storms that preceded them, at least not here. Some examples are January 14th, 2009. 5.6" followed by lows of -6, -10 and -11. January 1994 is the most obvious, with a 7.8" storm followed by lows of -17, -22, -9 and -15. January 1985 had about 5" before -5, -19 and -16. January 1964 had 7.1" that brought down a very brief -14 for a single night. Same thing for the following January 1965 with 7" followed by 1 night at -11. I really couldn't find too many. But in all cases, the preceding precipitation was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I always liked P007 of the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS still doesn't want to show a big storm like the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z GFS gives most of IN/OH 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS still doesn't want to show a big storm. Let's see if the Euro has it again. GFS had 5-9" from S half of IL to OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z GGEM tracks from NE MS to WV to NYC. Looks like a good hit for eastern IN and most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ok ok, it's the NAVGEM...but it's kinda cool what it does with this storm, when it gets into Canada. Loop it from 96 hours until the end. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So far Euro looks further west. Low by SW ohio at 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So far Euro looks further west. Low by SW ohio at 120 hrs. Really about the same as the 12z Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like a very good run for LAF. Cutting it a little too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Garbage. Let's hope this run is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like a very good run for LAF. Cutting it a little too close for comfort. Would we have it any other way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not a bad start to the first Euro of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Track is same as the 12z run. Is snowfall relatively similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not a bad start to the first Euro of the year! That would be very nice. 8-12" around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not a bad start to the first Euro of the year! That would be very nice. 8-12" around here. Hope so, because we aren't going to see much from today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hope so, because we aren't going to see much from today's event. Only thing exciting from this event was last night LES band just to my north (I was up there when it happened) ... good 2-3" between Fenton and Grand Blanc ... almost white out conditions in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hope so, because we aren't going to see much from today's event. Only thing exciting from this event was last night LES band just to my north (I was up there when it happened) ... good 2-3" between Fenton and Grand Blanc ... almost white out conditions in the center. I'm at about a tenth of an inch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm at about a tenth of an inch right now. I got a 1/2" before midnite from that LES band. So far today NADA ... I am not even getting pixie dust right now. This next event has more potential for us but it is thread the needle type situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS a bit southeast/weaker...12z GGEM a bit northwest/stronger, compared to their respective 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the 12z Euro does have snow for Detroit and also down to central OH. Seems to indicate a changeover, or perhaps even an ice storm situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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