The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Damn at 42 hours the H5 vort is more amplified but the nam is still squashing it. damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This won't be it, but the NAM will have a nuclear run soon. Hell, 18z may be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This won't be it, but the NAM will have a nuclear run soon. Hell, 18z may be the one. I totally agree every run keep getting get closer. Heights were much more amplified out front this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plumes with one of the bigger inside 48 hr spreads I've seen, essentially 0-18" at ORD with a mean of 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Heights were much more amplified out front this time. I'm surprised how much they're able to do so being hot on the heels of the last storm which wasn't exactly a slouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plumes with one of the bigger inside 48 hr spreads I've seen, essentially 0-18" at ORD with a mean of 8" IKK: 0.2 to 20.1" IND: 1.5 to 16.8" LAF: 1.8 to 17.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I see hints of much stronger development showing up on the GFS 06z and projecting the RGEM forward ... expect the southern low to run into a wall of extreme cold that will force the track south of BNA then north-northeast, with those uppers and the lakes open, this could turn into a monster blizzard, not quite the same pattern as 78 but a lot worse than these early maps are showing. Something like a 970 mb low over central Lake Erie tracking north northeast, 40-50 mph winds over MI into w OH by Sunday afternoon and evening. This could be an extremely dangerous situation for the entire region and in particular south end of Lake Michigan should be prepared for extreme conditions, as strong northerly winds bring heavy snow through much of IN. Bet there won't be any real issues about rain or snow in KY either, this thing will have so much cold air surrounding it when it finally gets the signal to move that it will rapidly develop a coastal secondary moving up the Hudson valley and cut off any warm advection. Just looking at the current situation, can't see much organized warm advection over all this snow and with the frigid air over the northeast locked in by a Quebec high that can't really move, most likely scenario is a very rapid PV transfer south. The SK low looks like it has no clue where to go and will probably just end up dying out over northern ON Saturday as the TX low energizes. Expect some much different looking model runs to start appearing later today. With this development scenario and the open lakes, snowfalls of 20-30 inches are possible in lake enhancement zones and 10-20 inches more generally. We may be about to witness a historic storm with almost unprecedented wind chill and blizzard severity measurements. With the occlusion to the coastal secondary areas such as Toronto could also see very heavy snow as cold southeast winds race into the developing centre. The football game in Green Bay should probably be moved over to MSP so they can play it indoors and they could do a double-header weekend in IND to save the Chargers from freezing to death in CIN. But I imagine we will be treated to a weekend of arctic football such as we are quite familiar with in Canada. Environment Canada still seems underdone with the cold, with regard to with their temperature forecast for Tuesday, calling for a high of -8 Celsius in Toronto (19F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 At 48 hours it almost blossoms. So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 IKK: 0.2 to 20.1" IND: 1.5 to 16.8" LAF: 1.8 to 17.5" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Uh, not to be a buzzkill, but the differences between the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z NAM runs look so incredibly small to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The changes for the southern half of Cook county from the 6z run to this run are pretty funny. <.10" of liquid to >.50" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plumes with one of the bigger inside 48 hr spreads I've seen, essentially 0-18" at ORD with a mean of 8" Same with DKB, 0-16.2" with a good cluster around 5" and another around 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This run of the is a weather conundrum of sorts. It's stuck in middle Earth of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Warning snows near ORD this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Uh, not to be a buzzkill, but the differences between the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z NAM runs look so incredibly small to me. Your not a buzz kill at all. It may not look like a lot. but the top image is about 3-5 hours slower from an explosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro and Nam now showing heavier snows to be north and west of DTW....This thing is hauling once its gets going...DTX afd this morning says they favor southern areas for bigger totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Uh, not to be a buzzkill, but the differences between the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z NAM runs look so incredibly small to me. It's always a red flag when really small changes at 500 start producing rather large changes in weather/QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Geos will not be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Through 69 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Geos will not be denied Mt Geos über alles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 wait and see... chi ends up with a 2.5' snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 One nice thing is it seems the bulk of precip seems to be snow...even for folks in my neck of the woods sweating the track. Not much pre-frontal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Uh, not to be a buzzkill, but the differences between the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z NAM runs look so incredibly small to me. Actually Jay, there were really significant differences early on with the orientation and progression of the PV. Honestly I thought this was going to be much crazier looking than it turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 not worrying about p type always makes events more enjoyable so sick of knocking and pinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The RGEM is a bit more amplified through 12 hours only a lil bit tho edit: even more so at 24 hours. Probably going to go BOOM BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Actually Jay, there were really significant differences early on with the orientation and progression of the PV. Honestly I thought this was going to be much crazier looking than it turned out. I was looking at the 5h maps at 33 hours when I wrote that, and to me, they looked identical to the 45 hour ones on the 0Z NAM. I don't know. Like you said, not much pre-frontal qpf...looks odd actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The RGEM is a bit more amplified through 12 hours only a lil bit tho edit: even more so at 24 hours. Probably going to go BOOM BOOM not seeing that edit: was comparing to the ggem from 00z....you might be right wrt the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here are some of the latest numbers for YYZ. Pretty good consensus for 4-7" of snow on the global models. Hopefully meso models can trend SE and bump up QPF a bit. 6z GFS cobb: 7.5" 6z NAM cobb: 4.5" 0z euro text: 5-6" EC ENS: 5-6" SREF mean: 4-5" 0z GEM: 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-032315-/O.NEW.KIND.WS.A.0001.140105T0600Z-140106T0600Z/CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR1011 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT.* MAIN IMPACT:ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTS...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE...:* ACCUMULATIONS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A HALF A FOOT.* TIMING: LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.* OTHER IMPACTS: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.* WIND CHILL VALUES: BITTER COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO 20 TO 25 BELOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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