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January 3-6th Winter Storm

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Posted
Posted

AFD from IND. Good read both on the storm, cold and also another snow in the offing:

 

994  

FXUS63 KIND 030826  

AFDIND  

 

 

 

 

UPDATE  

 

THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.  

 

 

SYNOPSIS  

 

ISSUED AT 255 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014  

 

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH TONIGHT. A STORM  

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE THIS  

WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF  

THIS STORM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE  

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  

 

 

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/  

 

ISSUED AT 255 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014  

 

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES  

ACROSS THE AREA. LAYERED HUMIDITY PANELS SUGGEST ONLY SOME PASSING  

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM TIME TO TIME.  

 

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK  

REASONABLE. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT...SO ONLY  

EXPECTED A SMALL TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT. THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT  

MAY BE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AS A RESULT...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE  

LOWS SLIGHTLY.  

 

 

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  

 

ISSUED AT 255 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014  

 

MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST  

ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL PASS  

OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A DEEP  

COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. OPERATIONAL  

AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE CLUSTERED AROUND A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM  

ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY...AND ON THE HEAVIEST  

SNOWFALL AXIS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN  

INCREASING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND  

PERIOD.  

 

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN  

THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIFT MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR  

NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...SO WILL PUT SOME SMALL  

CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS FOR LATE SATURDAY  

AFTERNOON.  

 

APPEARS THE BEST LIFT...AND RESULTANT HEAVIEST SNOW...WILL BE DURING  

THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH  

THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT  

AND HIGH POPS ON SUNDAY. LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE IN THE  

PROCESS OF MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...SO WILL TAPER  

POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT THAT TIME.  

 

AT THIS POINT...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE CLUSTERING AROUND  

STORM TOTALS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH  

POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS  

WELL AS TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY  

BE NEEDED SOON TO COVER THE THREAT.  

 

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR  

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE COLD SIDE. WILL  

RAISE THE GUIDANCE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. HIGHS ON  

SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY...WILL READINGS  

POTENTIALLY FALLING TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY DARK.  

 

 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  

 

ISSUED AT 326 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014  

 

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE BITTERLY COLD AIR  

ARRIVING AND REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE TEMPS  

MODIFY.  

 

SUNDAY SNOWSTORM WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY  

WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE STORM.  

MODEL GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON INTENSE COLD ADVECTION  

EXPANDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS TUMBLING  

RAPIDLY TO -30 TO -25C AND POSSIBLY LOWER BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS  

WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA HAS SEEN IN 20  

YEARS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBZERO TEMPS ON  

THE ORDER OF 36 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST  

AREA. CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND  

GROWING LIKELIHOOD OF A DEEP SNOWPACK...STILL BELIEVE RAW MODEL  

OUTPUT MAY BE UNDERDOING THE COLD A BIT AND HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT  

ALLBLEND TEMPS INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD POOL IS AT ITS MOST INTENSE  

OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND EXPECT COLDEST  

TEMPS WILL BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWS FROM -17 TO -10F ACROSS  

THE FORECAST AREA AND FRANKLY THIS MAY STILL BE CONSERVATIVE  

CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW DAYS.  

 

TO PUT THIS COLD BLAST INTO PERSPECTIVE...INDY HAS EXPERIENCED JUST  

SEVEN DAYS WITH LOWS OF -10 OR LOWER SINCE THE RECORD COLD OF  

JANUARY 1994. WE MAY ADD TWO DAYS TO THAT LIST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN  

MORE IMPRESSIVE...THE COLDEST HIGH IN RECORDED HISTORY IS -11 FROM  

JAN 20 1985. ONLY 16 DAYS IN THE INDY PERIOD OF RECORD HAVE  

EXPERIENCED SUBZERO HIGHS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE ADDED TO THIS  

VERY SHORT LIST.  

 

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE A PROBLEM IN TANDEM WITH THE TEMPS...  

AS THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW  

WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AT -40 TO -30F MONDAY THROUGH  

TUESDAY.  

 

THE POLAR VORTEX WILL LIFT OUT INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE TUESDAY  

AND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW  

WILL RETURN AND WITH IT RECOVERY IN TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND  

THURSDAY. AS THAT TAKES PLACE HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING  

OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND  

THURSDAY AND TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. EVEN AT SIX DAYS OUT...THIS IS  

ALREADY SHOWING OMINOUS SIGNS OF BEING THE NEXT STORM IN THE  

PIPELINE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. STAY TUNED.  

 

 

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z TAF UPDATE/  

 

ISSUED AT 326 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014  

 

MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH LIGHT  

NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.  

 

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  

 

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD AS COLD AND DRY HIGH  

PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  

 

A FEW VFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LAF AND HUF  

AREAS...BUT AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND  

RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO LONGER REACH THE TAF  

SITES AS THEY CHANGE THEIR TRAJECTORY.  

 

TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY...THUS  

VFR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CI EXPECTED.  

 

 

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  

NONE.  

 

 

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS...JAS  

NEAR TERM...JAS  

SHORT TERM...JAS  

LONG TERM....RYAN  

AVIATION...JP/RYAN  

 

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND  

 

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:  

WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS  

WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS  

 

 

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS. The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

I see hints of much stronger development showing up on the GFS 06z and projecting the RGEM forward ... expect the southern low to run into a wall of extreme cold that will force the track south of BNA then north-northeast, with those uppers and the lakes open, this could turn into a monster blizzard, not quite the same pattern as 78 but a lot worse than these early maps are showing. Something like a 970 mb low over central Lake Erie tracking north northeast, 40-50 mph winds over MI into w OH by Sunday afternoon and evening. This could be an extremely dangerous situation for the entire region and in particular south end of Lake Michigan should be prepared for extreme conditions, as strong northerly winds bring heavy snow through much of IN. Bet there won't be any real issues about rain or snow in KY either, this thing will have so much cold air surrounding it when it finally gets the signal to move that it will rapidly develop a coastal secondary moving up the Hudson valley and cut off any warm advection. Just looking at the current situation, can't see much organized warm advection over all this snow and with the frigid air over the northeast locked in by a Quebec high that can't really move, most likely scenario is a very rapid PV transfer south. The SK low looks like it has no clue where to go and will probably just end up dying out over northern ON Saturday as the TX low energizes.

 

Expect some much different looking model runs to start appearing later today. With this development scenario and the open lakes, snowfalls of 20-30 inches are possible in lake enhancement zones and 10-20 inches more generally. We may be about to witness a historic storm with almost unprecedented wind chill and blizzard severity measurements. With the occlusion to the coastal secondary areas such as Toronto could also see very heavy snow as cold southeast winds race into the developing centre.

 

The football game in Green Bay should probably be moved over to MSP so they can play it indoors and they could do a double-header weekend in IND to save the Chargers from freezing to death in CIN. But I imagine we will be treated to a weekend of arctic football such as we are quite familiar with in Canada.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

I see hints of much stronger development showing up on the GFS 06z and projecting the RGEM forward ... expect the southern low to run into a wall of extreme cold that will force the track south of BNA then north-northeast, with those uppers and the lakes open, this could turn into a monster blizzard, not quite the same pattern as 78 but a lot worse than these early maps are showing. Something like a 970 mb low over central Lake Erie tracking north northeast, 40-50 mph winds over MI into w OH by Sunday afternoon and evening. This could be an extremely dangerous situation for the entire region and in particular south end of Lake Michigan should be prepared for extreme conditions, as strong northerly winds bring heavy snow through much of IN. Bet there won't be any real issues about rain or snow in KY either, this thing will have so much cold air surrounding it when it finally gets the signal to move that it will rapidly develop a coastal secondary moving up the Hudson valley and cut off any warm advection. Just looking at the current situation, can't see much organized warm advection over all this snow and with the frigid air over the northeast locked in by a Quebec high that can't really move, most likely scenario is a very rapid PV transfer south. The SK low looks like it has no clue where to go and will probably just end up dying out over northern ON Saturday as the TX low energizes.

 

Expect some much different looking model runs to start appearing later today. With this development scenario and the open lakes, snowfalls of 20-30 inches are possible in lake enhancement zones and 10-20 inches more generally. We may be about to witness a historic storm with almost unprecedented wind chill and blizzard severity measurements. With the occlusion to the coastal secondary areas such as Toronto could also see very heavy snow as cold southeast winds race into the developing centre.

 

The football game in Green Bay should probably be moved over to MSP so they can play it indoors and they could do a double-header weekend in IND to save the Chargers from freezing to death in CIN. But I imagine we will be treated to a weekend of arctic football such as we are quite familiar with in Canada.

 

 

I'll go on record and say i will bow down and kill your ass if this happens as you say.

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Torchageddon

Torchageddon

Posted
Posted

I see hints of much stronger development showing up on the GFS 06z and projecting the RGEM forward ... expect the southern low to run into a wall of extreme cold that will force the track south of BNA then north-northeast, with those uppers and the lakes open, this could turn into a monster blizzard, not quite the same pattern as 78 but a lot worse than these early maps are showing. Something like a 970 mb low over central Lake Erie tracking north northeast, 40-50 mph winds over MI into w OH by Sunday afternoon and evening. This could be an extremely dangerous situation for the entire region and in particular south end of Lake Michigan should be prepared for extreme conditions, as strong northerly winds bring heavy snow through much of IN. Bet there won't be any real issues about rain or snow in KY either, this thing will have so much cold air surrounding it when it finally gets the signal to move that it will rapidly develop a coastal secondary moving up the Hudson valley and cut off any warm advection. Just looking at the current situation, can't see much organized warm advection over all this snow and with the frigid air over the northeast locked in by a Quebec high that can't really move, most likely scenario is a very rapid PV transfer south. The SK low looks like it has no clue where to go and will probably just end up dying out over northern ON Saturday as the TX low energizes.

 

Expect some much different looking model runs to start appearing later today. With this development scenario and the open lakes, snowfalls of 20-30 inches are possible in lake enhancement zones and 10-20 inches more generally. We may be about to witness a historic storm with almost unprecedented wind chill and blizzard severity measurements. With the occlusion to the coastal secondary areas such as Toronto could also see very heavy snow as cold southeast winds race into the developing centre.

 

The football game in Green Bay should probably be moved over to MSP so they can play it indoors and they could do a double-header weekend in IND to save the Chargers from freezing to death in CIN. But I imagine we will be treated to a weekend of arctic football such as we are quite familiar with in Canada.

All I can say is I hope your right. I have never been under an official blizzard warning (only LES type) and I feel like I am "missing out" as they say.

 

I'll go on record and say i will bow down and kill your ass if this happens as you say.

:huh: --->  :lol: I've already bowed down when I read a 1911 summer reference from Roger for the summer of 2012 in southern Ontario. I was practically obsessed with 1911 at the time and to hear another person forecast and compare that to a summer I wanted to be torchageddon was magic.

 

Don't kill his ass! We want him around to luck us into another historic storm someday! :axe:

LOL, this page is hilarious! 

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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted

Lol... Here we go again. It's going to snow??? Not one mention of it and as a matter of fact let's just talk about wind chills instead, not because people couldn't get stranded in there car outside IN the windchills due to the HEAVY SNOW you have failed to mention lol.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

658 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...

AVIATION

SYNOPSIS

ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

THE BIG WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL

OF AN ARCTIC BLAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR

COMING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANTIME...WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE

TODAY BEFORE LAKE CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE WIND IS GOING TO PICK

UP AND WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL PRODUCE WIND

CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE EARLY TODAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL

ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE

0. WIND CHILLS 20 TO 30 BELOW SEEM LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER

AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM

(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING AND THEN SNOW

POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER DRAGGING THE ARCTIC

FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT...WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY APPROACH

ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD FALL JUST SHY. WIND

CHILLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE FOR A FEW

HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO

DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND WEST OF US-131 AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS BUT

ACCUMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR

ALONG WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS TEMPS MAKE A RUN AT 30 IN SW

FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT

FEEL MUCH COLDER. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA

SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ACCUMS IN

THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE SEEM POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN THE DGZ

AS IT LOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPS WON/T MOVE MUCH SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE

UNDERWAY.

LONG TERM

(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM.

WIND CHILL READINGS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AROUND -25 OR

COLDER WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR THE FIRST

DAY BACK TO SCHOOL.

SINCE WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY

MONDAY... THE HIGH TEMP FOR MONDAY 1/6 WILL PROBABLY BE THE MIDNIGHT

READING. TEMPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY FALL BELOW ZERO.

IF IT TURNS OUT THAT THE HIGH ON MONDAY IS ONLY AROUND ZERO... THIS

COULD BE IN THE TOP TEN COLDEST HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST AT GRR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY

131 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK

THAT MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE VERY COLD TEMPS AND SNOW WILL

MAKE ROADS ICY AND CHEMICALS WILL PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE.

TOTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT

GIVEN THAT A DGZ WILL NOT BE PRESENT DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS.

THAT MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SLIGHT WARMING

ALLOWS THE DGZ TO RETURN TO THE CLOUD LAYER.

ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT ON TUESDAY... THE

SNOW THREAT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER H5

TROUGH DIGS WEST OF MI AND MAY INDUCE WARM ADVECTION SNOWS.

AVIATION

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 658 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MKG... VFR LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH

INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN

GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT

WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

AT MKG... A BAND OF DISSIPATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COME ONSHORE

AROUND MID MORNING BRINGING MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS... AND POSSIBLY A

PERIOD OF IFR. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID

AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40

KTS AT TIMES AFTER 00Z.

MARINE

ISSUED AT 856 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH

THAT WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST

AND REACH GALES LATE IN THE DAY.

HYDROLOGY

ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA. A

SUSPECTED ICE JAM UPSTREAM IS CAUSING A SHARP RISE AT THE SMYRNA

RIVER GAUGE. THE ICE JAM ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER THAT HAS IMPACTED

EVART SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS NOW

ON A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT

EVART AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELED.

RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GAINING ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FOR THE

FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THOSE RIVERS THAT ICE OVER COMPLETELY WILL HAVE

A MINIMAL ICE JAM THREAT. RIVERS WITH JAGGED ICE BUILDUP ARE IN

DANGER OF EXPERIENCING JAMMING AND RAPID FLUCTUATIONS. WIDESPREAD

HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED

IMMEDIATELY BY A BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR. HOPEFULLY RIVER LEVELS

WILL LOCK IN SOMEWHAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...NONE.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

LMZ844>849.

GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR

LMZ844>849.

SYNOPSIS...93

SHORT TERM...93

LONG TERM...MEADE

AVIATION...MEADE

HYDROLOGY...EBW

MARINE...93

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Hush. The euro definitely looks promising. Suspect we'll start seeing headlines by this afternoon.

 

I'm confident enough to post this...

 

16.1" on Feb 16-17, 1910

15.5" on Jan 25-27, 1978

13.2" on Feb 27-29, 1984

13.0" on Dec 18-20, 1973

12.8" on Jan 2-4, 1996

12.5" on Feb 24-25, 1965

12.5" on Jan 26-28, 2009

12.3" on Mar 19-20, 1906

11.8" on Dec 28-30, 1973

11.8" on Mar 19-20, 1996

 

That's the 10 biggest snowstorms on record for Indianapolis. Poor big snowstorm climo compared to other sites in the GL/OV...but the Euro and its ensembles have been pretty consistent, all things considered. This one may have a chance to break into that list for Indy.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

huge changes coming on the nam.

Differences from 00z to 12z today at H5 are huge.

 

 

h5 differences by 12z Sat aren't that huge. Maybe a minor shift towards foreign consensus.  Nothing earth shattering. You're locked and loaded. Good luck!

 

Wanna play halo sat?

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
Posted

h5 differences by 12z Sat aren't that huge. Maybe a minor shift towards foreign consensus.  Nothing earth shattering. You're locked and loaded. Good luck!

 

Wanna play halo sat?

 

Sure. 

 

Add:  Arch3rsterling5

 

 

I haven't played in about 10 days.  But it's easy to pick up after 12 years of playing quite a bit.

 

as far as the NAM it has major amplifying potential and we know the nam can go berserk with that.

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