Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Good thing the 1/3 0z NAM isn't the final solution. Again, I see room for improvement...and it was better than its 12z run. Win, win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Good thing the 1/3 0z NAM isn't the final solution. Again, I see room for improvement...and it was better than its 12z run. Win, win. It's weird that I'm not happy with the NAM's .4-.5" of QPF... last year that would've been the best of the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I am Seconded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Take it easy Pat. Nobody is trying to steal anyone's storm. LOL! That's MY storm and you can't have it, see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I remember the Blizzard of '78 here in Flint. I remember there were snowdrifts 10' in spots and the snow was easily 2' deep in the lowest spots. I got up in the morning and the front room window was covered 2/3 of the way up. The entire east side of our house was drifted to almost the roofline. I remember people died in MI because of it. The only school open for miles and miles was St. Mary's Catholic. I remember another really bad winter storm when I was a kid, in I think it was 1967. My dad and i went outside to shovel at one point, it was after dark and all you could see was the streetlight. You couldn't hardly even see across the street. Out of nowhere, a blast of lightning hit something like a few houses away. My dad told me to drop the shovel and get in the house immediately! Neither of us had any clue thundersnow even existed and it scared the hell out of him. The snowflakes were the size of silver dollars and coming down like I've never seen since. We got over 20" and the whole city was pretty much shut down for two days. Dec 2000 was unreal in Flint.... I worked in that city quite a bit during that month. Depth around 2 feet was pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 1/14/1992 and 2/23/2003 also come to mind. But again, synoptically, this is really a poor man's bomb potential given the unimpressive southern stream wave. And the phase doesn't really become fulsome until it's well into Canada. The 1978 storm had the PV interact much earlier. Things can change but I'm seeing this as a quick hitting 4-8" type event for whoever ends up in the main swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Dont know where else to put this ILZ014-031630-COOK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO803 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CSTSATURDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT...VERY WINDY. PARTLY CLOUDY. BLOWING SNOW.NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESSAT TIMES...MAINLY IN OPEN AREAS. LOWS 12 TO 16. WIND CHILLS AS LOWAS ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THEEVENING INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And the phase doesn't really become fulsome until it's well into Canada. The 1978 storm had the PV interact much earlier. Things can change but I'm seeing this as a quick hitting 4-8" type event for whoever ends up in the main swath. Nam. not very moisture laden; however, it shows about 5" for the GTA using 12:1 snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Alek call will be DAB At this point that would be a good first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Dec 2000 was unreal in Flint.... I worked in that city quite a bit during that month. Depth around 2 feet was pretty common. I'm thinking that's the one I had to drive home from East Detroit to Davison in.. during the middle of the night. It took me 6 hours before I set foot in my home.It was the worst driving experience I've ever experienced. It was in a '93 GMC Sonoma 2wd. I am simply amazed I got home in that thing. I still maintain the only reason I made it was that I never took my foot off the gas once I hit Ortonville/M-15. I was going about 30 and just left it in 3rd gear and followed the ruts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 hell I'd give up all chances of a storm riding the front in exchange for a squall line with thunder and high winds. Wasn't there a situation like that with an advancing arctic front a few years back, (IL and IN), and they even issued severe thunderstorm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And the phase doesn't really become fulsome until it's well into Canada. The 1978 storm had the PV interact much earlier. Things can change but I'm seeing this as a quick hitting 4-8" type event for whoever ends up in the main swath. If we can get the southern stream wave to just dig/amplify into N. New Mexico and N. Texas, we're golden (what's nice is that it won't take much at this point for that to be realized, see NOGAPS). But given our luck, I'm not holding my breath for that bit of Olympics to happen. Everything else appears to be all set for a bomb but that southern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Take it easy Pat. Nobody is trying to steal anyone's storm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I am Seconded. And the 3rd time is the charm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 hell I'd give up all chances of a storm riding the front in exchange for a squall line with thunder and high winds. Wasn't there a situation like that with an advancing arctic front a few years back, (IL and IN), and they even issued severe thunderstorm warnings?I do remember that. It was just a few years ago. I'm sure the human weather encyclopedia (aka ChicagoWX) could drum up that answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll take 3-5" of snow over a deluge of snow destroying rain followed by record cold any day...and if it screws you all, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like Louisville would get 3-5 inches of snow on that run, however if that run were to come about 20-40 miles south, then we would be looking at a classic 4-8 inch event. I just want a six inch snowfall, haven't seen one since 2011 when I got two in three days, the last one before that for me was in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And the 3rd time is the charm! Get your own snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Based on the Rgem the GEM is going to be in the same camp it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Get your own snowstorm! I'll share with you, Tim, stebo, and GW but none for Patrick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The 12z Euro taken verbatim would dump a foot over a wide swath of Southeast Michigan. With surface temps in the low 20s and 850mb temps around -12c, the Euro's insane QPF would also be accompanied by very good snow ratios. It wouldn't be slop, not even close. Also, nice to see the third rate American models finally come on board. Only a couple days behind the NOGAPS, lol. My call for DTW: 14.0" 14" would be a top 10 all-time storm for DTW. Seems bullish, but I'd have no problem with 2+ feet of snow in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Based on the Rgem the GEM is going to be in the same camp it was at 12z. or possible a bit more southeast. Comparing the 00z 48 rgem to the 12z 60 ggem it looks like the PV is further south and the low over the great lakes is stronger as well knocking heights down a bit more in the east. small changes, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 hell I'd give up all chances of a storm riding the front in exchange for a squall line with thunder and high winds. Wasn't there a situation like that with an advancing arctic front a few years back, (IL and IN), and they even issued severe thunderstorm warnings? January 29, 2008? IND: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=12401&source=2 ILX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=012908-temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?n=D9553AB5-1#blizzard Well Environment Canada has a certain criteria for Blizzard warnings to be issued. In most cases, they always issue a SW or WSW rather than a BW. And SSC, didnt they issue it for the Jan 1999 storm? Based on EC's climate page, the 1993 superstorm was only around 4-8" for us. I believe blizzard warnings were issued for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 January 29, 2008? IND: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=12401&source=2 ILX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=012908-temps yup, thanks....I was jealous as hell over that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I believe blizzard warnings were issued for that storm. I'm nearly certain they were winter storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 yup, thanks....I was jealous as hell over that one I guess I should of said in terms of where I am at. What happens after the system passes my area can have little effect on the outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 January 29, 2008? IND: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=12401&source=2 ILX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=012908-temps I'm glad I screen capped this, always thought it was worthy of saving at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The nam sucks for everyone expect those who are on the far SE edge. So it's either we all get a run of the mill storm. Or some get a potentially epic event while others get hosed. I'll take #2, being on the southeast edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 or possible a bit more southeast. Comparing the 00z 48 rgem to the 12z 60 ggem it looks like the PV is further south and the low over the great lakes is stronger as well knocking heights down a bit more in the east. small changes, but who knows. The southern wave looks a little farther south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.