Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Holy cow, make that .70" liquid almost to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This 18z NAM run definitely going toward the foreign model runs. Surface low passes near CMH and deepening pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Holy cow, make that .70" liquid almost to here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think we all know how 00z will turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z NAM looks nice for Chicago especially south side. Does this mean it has pushed north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 IND leaning towards the EURO.. COLD BUT DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSUREMOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OFTHIS HIGH WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATING IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHTAND EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. GIVEN THE THICK SNOW COVERWILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT US LATESATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRALAND EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTSAROUND SUNDAY AS THEY TRACK THE SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FASTER ANDFARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z EURO ANDGEMNH MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW WITH A STRONGER LOWTRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDSTHE 12Z EURO AS IT IS HAS BEEN VERY CONSTANT AND IS CONSIDERED ONEOF THE BETTER LONG RANGE MODELS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILLSEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET. WILL ISSUEINSTEAD A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z euro ensemble mean has a track from central AR through Columbus and up just west of montreal. Has ~0.7" of QPF from detroit through toronto and up to ottawa. I assume we stay on the cold side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 An early look into the system from the WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I assume we stay on the cold side? Yep. Slightly colder/further east then the OP, should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The NAM coming in looking all sexy....ooooh. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm driving the 402 and 401 on Sunday from Sarnia to Kitchener. What time might the snow begin in SW Ontario? Thinking of cancelling plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 amazing consistency among models....haven't seen that all year. Hard to ignore.....sucks for me. However I'll pull out an often used weenie card from the past: "once this current storm exits, the models will have a better handle on the strength of the incoming air mass and will shift southeast..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The NAM coming in looking all sexy....ooooh. Sent from my HTC6435LVW Yup. Looks similar to the GGEM/Euro and the UKMET, QPF wise and track wise. Low tracks over Southern Illinois/IND, through the Ohio Valley and right over the GTA. General qpf of 0.50 to 0.75 in many regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The NAM coming in looking all sexy....ooooh. Sent from my HTC6435LVW Yup. Looks similar to the GGEM/Euro and the UKMET, QPF wise and track wise. Low tracks over Southern Illinois/IND, through the Ohio Valley and right over the GTA. General qpf of 0.50 to 0.75 in many regions. Anything less than 0.50 scares me. I haven't cracked 6 inches since Nov 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anything less than 0.50 scares me. I haven't cracked 6 inches since Nov 2011. whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A trend I'm okay with:) The NAM coming in looking all sexy....ooooh. Sent from my HTC6435LVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Howell airport came in with 6.2 inches on Nov 30th 2011, that's my last warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 An early look into the system from the WPC. WPC also has 8+ maps up for the day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anything less than 0.50 scares me. I haven't cracked 6 inches since Nov 2011. Wow, really? Your kidding right? Damn. I guess you and I both have our personal snow drought stories, lol. That February storm last year broke the trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ILN usuing I-71 as changeover point. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE GONE WITH 100 POPS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS. GFS STILL OFFERS THE COLDER SOLUTION...SUGGESTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AND ALL SNOW. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING COLDER...BUT IS STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO AND BROUGHT A CHANGE TO RAIN UP TO I-71 SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CUT INTO SNOWFALL THERE. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD LEAD TO HEADLINES FOR WINTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING ZERO. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY IN THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.MONDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN MANY YEARS. UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND WITH SNOW COVER CONTRIBUTING ITS INFLUENCE...LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY UP TO 5 BELOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO...WELL INTO WIND CHILL HEADLINE TERRITORY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. UNDER THE FRIGID AIRMASS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO READINGS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ON MONDAY NIGHT.LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This was just posted on the WAVE 3 facebook page. Two meteorologists explain that the EURO has been trending southeast the last three runs. White is operational and yellow is the the ensemble "mean." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This was just posted on the WAVE 3 facebook page. Two meteorologists explain that the EURO has been trending southeast the last three runs. White is operational and yellow is the the ensemble "mean." Notice the 588dm heights out over the Atlantic though, every run they have been expanding, there is only so far it could trend Southeast with the ridging strengthening off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Notice the 588dm heights out over the Atlantic though, every run they have been expanding, there is only so far it could trend Southeast with the ridging strengthening off the East Coast. It also doesn't account for strength of the system and a gazillion other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It also doesn't account for strength of the system and a gazillion other factors. Yeah, the other factor is the PV is neutrally tilted on this run and its ensembles vs positively tilted, the storm would probably bomb right after that snapshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Notice the 588dm heights out over the Atlantic though, every run they have been expanding, there is only so far it could trend Southeast with the ridging strengthening off the East Coast. You'd be able to do a better comparison but how did the 12z Euro look compared to 00z? It seemed to me like the 12z didn't really track farther south than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anything less than 0.50 scares me. I haven't cracked 6 inches since Nov 2011. Its been a while here as well (Feb 2013) Came short with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Howell airport came in with 6.2 inches on Nov 30th 2011, that's my last warning criteria event. But did you get a WSWarning for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You'd be able to do a better comparison but how did the 12z Euro look compared to 00z? It seemed to me like the 12z didn't really track farther south than the 00z. 12z was stronger and a hair west of the 00z starting at 72hr and continuing through the run. I'd say about 50 miles or so west of the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z GFS...pretty good I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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