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Early January 2014 cold snaps - featuring the polar vortex of doom


Ian

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Not for you personally but for anyone:  Does the Euro still have that physics problem leading to colder minT forecasts or was that fixed?

I don't know if anything was fixed or even addressed but the Euro was pretty spot on with today's cold blast. It was way too cold for the cold fronts back in December. Next tuesday will be a big test.

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i was thinking about that too -- do you happen to know how far back there are hourly obs at DCA (or other regional sites) -- be interested to look at the integrated 24-hour average temps rather than max-min for the average -- as you said, days like today don't really look that impressive in the record book

 Lots of opinions on this but besides all the development that has occurred in and around DC over last 100 years, transforming what used to be like Germantown into a Macadamopolis and thus complimenting global warmers(Nation's Capitol is 5-7 degrees warmer than 100 years ago!!!!) there is the inherent bias that occurs at 12:01am that does not occur at 12:01 pm. That is, we frequently have our high temeprature at 12:01 am, we almost never-never have our low temperature at 12:01pm.
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 Lots of opinions on this but besides all the development that has occurred in and around DC over last 100 years, transforming what used to be like Germantown into a Macadamopolis and thus complimenting global warmers(Nation's Capitol is 5-7 degrees warmer than 100 years ago!!!!) there is the inherent bias that occurs at 12:01am that does not occur at 12:01 pm. That is, we frequently have our high temeprature at 12:01 am, we almost never-never have our low temperature at 12:01pm.

 

But we do have low temps at 11:59pm, which is the "opposite" of the midnight high.

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Maybe in the metro areas the snow cover will likely be gone by Tuesday, but not a foregone conclusion here. GFS has my area above freezing for about 9 hours at night Sunday night and below the rest of the time until the next arctic front. Not sure that can wipe out what's on the ground, not to mention we could get a fresh coating with the front.

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Not for you personally but for anyone: Does the Euro still have that physics problem leading to colder minT forecasts or was that fixed?

It does as per Joe D from BOX. He mentioned it the other day on Twitter.
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Brutal. Certainly possible if radiational cooling is present and no winds. True, won't be any snowcover left, but still possible IMO

 

As we know, DCA is already hard to hit 0°F or below to begin with. I see Dulles dropped to -3°F on January 13, 1981 with no snowcover. I did no official search for DCA, it was just a random date since I was researching the same info for Richmond and it hit 2°F there on that date with no snowcover.

 

Edit: DCA's low on 1/13/81 was just 11°F

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As we know, DCA is already hard to hit 0°F or below to begin with. I see Dulles dropped to -3°F on January 13, 1981 with no snowcover. I did no official search for DCA, it was just a random date since I was researching the same info for Richmond and it hit 2°F there on that date with no snowcover.

 

Edit: DCA's low on 1/13/81 was just 11°F

The brutal cold outbreak Christmas 83 had no snowcover. Not positive but I don't think there was much snowcover in the January 1985 blast as well.

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The brutal cold outbreak Christmas 83 had no snowcover. Not positive but I don't think there was much snowcover in the January 1985 blast as well.

You are correct. Richmond hit 3°F back then and the high was only 14°F. I only chose 1/13/81 because for Richmond, it's the closest we've gotten to 0°F with no snowever in recent times. I don't know what the snow depth status was for DCA and IAD in 12/1983, I'll leave that for Ian or snow. unless they want me to look for them. :P

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You are correct. Richmond hit 3°F back then and the high was only 14°F. I only chose 1/13/81 because for Richmond, it's the closest we've gotten to 0°F with no snowever in recent times. I don't know what the snow depth status was for DCA and IAD in 12/1983, I'll leave that for Ian or snow. unless they want me to look for them. :P

No snowcover in the DC and Balto. area during the 12/83 cold wave. A few snow showers and squalls accompanied the front and coated the ground but not enough to be considered snowcover. I'm sure there have been many more major cold waves that had no snowcover. If Ihave time later I will look into it.

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