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Early January 2014 cold snaps - featuring the polar vortex of doom


Ian

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Micro climates on a calm night are interesting. I'm a full degree cooler than my closest reporting station (less than a half mile away) but the school is about 40' higher in elevation. My street borders a creek valley so I benefit from cold drain even with such a modest elevation change. Last night the station had me by a degree most of the night.

Normal people couldnt care the least about 1 degree. I'm probably not normal

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I kind of think there will be a cold shot after the 17 or 18 but he sure likes trying to be first. 

 

 

The EC ensemble mean seems to be trending that way going back looking at the last 3 or 4 runs...though nowhere nearly as extreme as the single control run at D15 or the day 10 OP Euro run (which is a bit sooner than ensembles want to bring the coldest ar in).

 

If (big if) we were able to get another big arctic intrusion, the pattern would probably be shifted slightly east versus this last one as the PNA ridge looks to be beefier...but I guess that stuff can change.

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