WVclimo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Raw GFS 12z is in the neighborhood of a top 2 coldest day at DCA next Tue. I give it a low chance of verifying. 00Z GFS has MRB with a high temp of 7 on Tuesday. That would tie Christmas Day 1983 for second lowest all time, behind the 6 on 1/19/94. Only these two days, and 2/18/79 at 8, did we ever stay in single digits for a high.Also has 496 thicknesses, which has to be a record. Would love to see this verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I can hardly wait for those strong arctic winds to reach Woodbridge. The wind advisory went into effect at 2am, but we have light winds with slowly falling temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sadly, DCA's high for today will be around freezing. Is this the obs thread for the cold? 14.6, which already matches the coldest I recorded in 2012, and only a little above 2013's min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Zone forecast has snowshoe at -24 with windchills of -45 for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sadly, DCA's high for today will be around freezing. Is this the obs thread for the cold? 14.6, which already matches the coldest I recorded in 2012, and only a little above 2013's min. I guess so re: obs. 9.8F here in Clarksburg at 8:10am. Coldest of the year and 3F colder than anything last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 6z GFS has a sub zero low temp Tuesday at IAD and low single digit at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NWS DC/Baltimore @NWS_BaltWash 25m FREDERICK MUNI APT,MD (FDK) ASOS reports gust of 68.0346160126 knots from WNW @ 1345Z KFDK 031345Z 30025G35 10SM SKC M09/M15 A3022 Wow! Those ASOS units are a lot more precise than I ever knew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 NWS DC/Baltimore @NWS_BaltWash 25m FREDERICK MUNI APT,MD (FDK) ASOS reports gust of 68.0346160126 knots from WNW @ 1345Z KFDK 031345Z 30025G35 10SM SKC M09/M15 A3022 Wow! Those ASOS units are a lot more precise than I ever knew! The only time I ever see metar tweets from them are for false obs. I guess they probably have it set to report sever winds or something but it doesn't seem to work well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Feels warm in the sun...how come snow or ice still melts at 16 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Feels warm in the sun...how come snow or ice still melts at 16 degrees? Because we live in the torchy sub-tropics with intense sun angles. Those are technical terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Because we live in the torchy sub-tropics with intense sun angles. Those are technical terms. Thanks...I was gonna Google it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Because we live in the torchy sub-tropics with intense sun angles. Those are technical terms. Trust me, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Feels warm in the sun...how come snow or ice still melts at 16 degrees? LOL--jan 3...16 degrees and our snow is melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I could see lows below zero approaching BR Mon night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Because we live in the torchy sub-tropics with intense sun angles. Those are technical terms. Very technical indeed. Can't wait for those -20's at Snowshoe tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 LOL--jan 3...16 degrees and our snow is melting. It's almost spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 18, 19, 20 at BWI, IAD, DCA for 11a 15z RTMA.. too bad we got screwed at midnight. It does make you wonder how many days like this there are in the record that look considerably milder on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Brrr. 12z GFS for Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I could see lows below zero approaching BR Mon night. Euro last night had northern md at -4 tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Brrr. 12z GFS for Tuesday morning. I don't see it getting that cold wihtout snowcover. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I don't see it getting that cold wihtout snowcover. No way. Gonna be tough. Tonight is poised to overperform from recent range tho as noted last night. Upper levels might be warming but we'll still get solid cooling ... MOS is down like 10 on todays runs from yesterday. GFS MOS has pretty much everyone outside the city in single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18, 19, 20 at BWI, IAD, DCA for 11a 15z RTMA.. too bad we got screwed at midnight. It does make you wonder how many days like this there are in the record that look considerably milder on paper. rtma_tmp2m_washdc.png i was thinking about that too -- do you happen to know how far back there are hourly obs at DCA (or other regional sites) -- be interested to look at the integrated 24-hour average temps rather than max-min for the average -- as you said, days like today don't really look that impressive in the record book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Brrr. 12z GFS for Tuesday morning. Brutal. Certainly possible if radiational cooling is present and no winds. True, won't be any snowcover left, but still possible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Record temps in play for next Tuesday: BWI: Low max 22, min 8 DCA: low max 18 (a record from 1878), min 5 (kind of doubt either is broken given it's DCA) IAD: low max 21, min 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Record temps in play for next Tuesday: BWI: Low max 22, min 8 DCA: low max 18 (a record from 1878), min 5 (kind of doubt either is broken given it's DCA) IAD: low max 21, min 8 The IAD and BWI records seem very doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with this hrrr_t2m_washdc_16.png Colder in the lower elevations. Is that indicative of an inversion, plus snowcover influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FWIW my zone forecast has my area at -4 for Tuesday morning. That would be the coldest temperature I have recorded in over a decade. It would also break the record low for the date by 6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Colder in the lower elevations. Is that indicative of an inversion, plus snowcover influence? I havent looked but I would imagine there is inversion potential tonight assuming the winds weaken substantially as forecast. Might be one of those drop a ton early nights then stable.. HRRR is more than likely too cold most spots but maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 i was thinking about that too -- do you happen to know how far back there are hourly obs at DCA (or other regional sites) -- be interested to look at the integrated 24-hour average temps rather than max-min for the average -- as you said, days like today don't really look that impressive in the record book not off the top of my head. you could probably keep testing back on wunderground to see http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2014/1/3/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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