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Early January 2014 cold snaps - featuring the polar vortex of doom

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

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snowfan

snowfan

Posted
Posted

Out of the area, but cold related......Mt Washington has said that if you get stranded hiking over the next few days, they will not be able to assist in any search and rescue missions....even by way of snow cat.

 

When the temps are forecasted to be -20 and the winds are expected to reach 100mph, you're an idiot if you go out in that.

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

Out of the area, but cold related......Mt Washington has said that if you get stranded hiking over the next few days, they will not be able to assist in any search and rescue missions....even by way of snow cat.

 

When the temps are forecasted to be -20 and the winds are expected to reach 100mph, you're an idiot if you go out in that.

Shoot - I just canceled my plans... Maybe I can still go tubing in the Potomac before it freezes.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
I'm sick with disappointment.

 

NWS forecast is for a low of 9 for Dale City. I am just sick with disappointment.

 

Not having snow on the ground I can understand. I got to enjoy one hell of an overperformer a few days ago. I know my climo. Sure we are well below climo for snow, but then I know where I live, in the tropics lol.

 

I don't now what the hell is goin on. Buda Texas south of Austin is running 25 degrees right now with a dewpoint of 4. They hit 17 last night. That may well be record breaking for them.

 

We hit 9 last cold front.

 

Man I am so disappointed, just sick with disappointment. I am with Ji now. Fruckin WINTER CANCEL.

 

 

All I wanted was a damn low of -3 with a nice refreshing northerly breeze.

 

What I will get is a pedestrian low near 10.

 

I am not criticizing NWS forecasting prowess. They forecast just fine. What I feel they should consider working on is their weather headlines. That claim of incredible cold was correct for the northern plains, where some will drop to -35 with wind chills to -60.

 

 

For DCA and northern Virginia well east of the Apps, it should have read, Winter cold front set to impact Mid Atlantic with cooler conditions for the next several days. MUCH COLDER with life threatening wind chills in the mountains and north of DCA.

 

Other than their recent weather headlines, which led many in my part of the country that we were in for a major arctic blast worthy of January 1985 (which this definitely is NOT, at least not for Woodbridge), the NWS does a fantastic job. So do all the mets on this fine forum.

 

January 1985 will probably never be surpassed, at least not in my lifetime. Too much development and climate change absolutely rules. In that month I was ecstatic over a beautiful low of -14 degrees with a high of only 2 above. Hooray for Woodbridge! Can't even get a LOW of 2 above tonight! This "arctic outbreak" is not 'INCREDIBLE' for Woodbridge Virginia.

 

 

It's pedestrian. On to golf weather and copious amounts of rain in a 57 degree environment in a few short days.

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Ian

Ian

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You did a really nice job, I shared it on my facebook page. 

Thanks, Wes. 

 

Hopefully temps will fall enough before midnight or we might get screwed there again. 

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

GFS MOS came up a bit from 6z at DCA

 

12z.. 

 

NAM: 19/10

GFS: 16/10 

 

6z temps are 16 and 17 which sort of indicate midnight screwage. 

 

I figure there is an 80% chance we get counterfeited at midnight at DCA with a 21 or so

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Ian

Ian

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I figure there is an 80% chance we get counterfeited at midnight at DCA with a 21 or so

MOS might be too warm in this situation but wouldn't bet much on that. HRRR has us at like 5 at midnight which seems pretty unlikely.
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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

MOS might be too warm in this situation but wouldn't bet much on that. HRRR has us at like 5 at midnight which seems pretty unlikely.

 

some places are outperforming MOS so far...like ORD....but others further east arent...I think it may just be delayed rather than the cold sucking

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
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Sucks to be us.

 

My money is definitely on many places to our south ending up far colder than we get tonight or tomorrow.

 

Who knows why DCA and northern Virginia well east of the mountains is always milder than everyone else.

 

Sucks to be us, in snow AND in supposed 'INCREDIBLE' cold. It's incredible alright.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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Oh dear Jesus :facepalm:

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/06/22201007-polar-vortex-what-is-it-and-when-is-it-going-away?lite

 

Move over, haboob. See you next summer, heat dome. The weather phenomenon hogging all the attention now is "polar vortex."

Twenty-six states are under wind-chill warnings or watches, and the polar vortex is to blame, breaking loose from its North Pole confines and plunging the country in a deep, dangerous freeze. 

"Think of this as a polar hurricane," said NBC News' Al Roker. 

It isn't expected to linger for long but will leave a mark. Here's what you need to know:

140106-noaa-satellite-jsw-1022a.photoblo

NOAA via AP

NOAA satellite image taken Monday, Jan. 6 at 01:45 a.m.

So what exactly is a polar vortex?

A polar vortex is basically a great swirling pool of extremely cold air located tens of thousands of feet in the atmosphere, said Frank Giannasca, senior meteorologist with The Weather Channel.

Basically an arctic cyclone, it ordinarily spins counterclockwise around the north and south poles.

While it tends to dip over northeastern Canada, it’s catching everyone’s attention because it has moved southward over such a large population — as many as 140 million Americans are feeling the freeze.

Why has it traveled so far south?

There’s a variety of reasons why a chunk of cold air over Canada would break off our way.

Chiefly, warmer air builds up over areas such as Greenland or Alaska, and that air forces the colder, denser air southward.

Also, weather patterns can create the right conditions for the polar vortex to point south.

But in this case, “this very well just may be one of those anomalies where it forces itself southward,” Giannasca said.

Is this a rare phenomenon?

Yes, and no.

Through the course of a winter, the arctic air can get displaced southward, typically into the eastern U.S. But it is uncommon for such cold air to cover such a large part of the country, happening maybe once a decade or longer.

Amplifying this polar vortex are the extreme cold and brutal winds — sending places such as Fargo, N.D., at 32 below zero and Madison, Wis., at minus 21. Add the wind chill, and it will feel like minus 50s and 60s in some parts.

Could there be a polar vortex again this winter?

Forecasts show temperatures around the country as a whole will begin moderating by the end of the week — that means the 20s and 30s in the Plains and Midwest, while parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast could be in the 40s.

But, like any unpredictable weather phenomenon, whether or not this can happen again, “is hard to say,” Giannasca said.

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