WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Wes made a good point about really windy conditions mitigating the discrepancy between DCA and surroundings. That is to be expected as the mixing offsets the warmth factors. What I would really like to see is an 8" snowcover everywhere including an iced over Potomac, with clear skies and light wind. At that point, 95% of the heat inducing elements would be covered in over a half foot of snow.. Even then, I think, DCA would still be skewed including the closer by Andrews and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It's simple and I have lived it. Few night ago when I hit 6.5 and so many other areas , probably 98%+ of the square footage of DC metro area, were in the single digits DCA was 17. In the 70's into the 80's DCA would have had a min of 11/12 and in the 50's 60's probably 9/10. The river is another excuse and basically you only have to make excuses when something is wrong or all evidence appears so. Annapolis is on the Bay, it does not do this. Good luck trying to interview someone at DCA about this. They will refer you to the FAA, the FAA will refer you to NWS. It has not been done on purpose, it just slipped nicely into the AGW debate and no effort will be made to rectify it. Establish a station in the 1880's move it many times with no accounting/adjustment for that, take an area that is over 50% marsh and build it out entirely and make no accounting/adjustment for that and have what you have now. Imagine a station that was established as official and all around it was buildings. The buildings get torn down and a huge lake is built all around the site. Do you think there would be a change in temperatures and do you think some effort would be made to account/adjust for that? AGW is not just about GHG emissions. It appears other human induced activity has been taking place around your measure station whilst the cold has been lacking. You are quite the prickly chap, I must say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Wes made a good point about really windy conditions mitigating the discrepancy between DCA and surroundings. That is to be expected as the mixing offsets the warmth factors. What I would really like to see is an 8" snowcover everywhere including an iced over Potomac, with clear skies and light wind. At that point, 95% of the heat inducing elements would be covered in over a half foot of snow.. Even then, I think, DCA would still be skewed including the closer by Andrews and the like. no doubt DCA would be skewed in that scenario....we have seen that for years now on calm nights after big snowstorms...15+ degree differences between DCA and IAD...IAD doesn't get as cold as it used to....it is too built up now, but no question DCA is going to be warmer than all of suburban DC metro on a calm snowcovered night.....part of it is UHI, part is location...since 1900, DC has only had 2 lows colder than -5.....IAD since 1962 has had around 20 (DCA - 0).....Andrews wouldn't be a bad place...they can sometimes get much colder than DCA as you have noted...There is nothing wrong with the sensor or siting at DCA imo...it is on a river in a concrete jungle at sea level which is going to skew the low temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Northern Fauquier and Loudoun added to Wind Chill Watch... 20 to 30 below WC possible lows lows 0 to 10 below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Remember also that IAD is at elevation in a bowl, which is perfect for radiational cooling. It is also unrepresentative of the DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Little slower getting here. Line on national radar adavncing slowly last 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 After this month DCers are going to be expert punters with postgraduate honors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like the front is alone the east shore of the Bay right now based on winds. Cold air is lagging behind a bit. Freezing line along the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like the front is alone the east shore of the Bay right now based on winds. Cold air is lagging behind a bit. Freezing line along the Blue Ridge. winds were picking up as I was leaving the house, though temp was 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014 DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ054>057-061730- /O.NEW.KLWX.WC.Y.0002.140107T0500Z-140107T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG 422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. * WIND CHILL...5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO. * TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING...THEN LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS TUESDAY. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD THEN LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014 MDZ003-VAZ025>031-WVZ050>053-055-061730- /O.UPG.KLWX.WC.A.0001.140106T2300Z-140107T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WC.W.0001.140106T2300Z-140107T2300Z/ WASHINGTON-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN- CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD 422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014 ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO. * TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING...THEN LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TONIGHT AND 10 TO 15 ABOVE TUESDAY. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I like our chances of this one verfiying. We do "wind" well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Huge wind gust....out of north now...temp dropping...here we goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I'm going to meh this cold for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Still good snow coverage...should be solid in about 2-3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Huge wind gust....out of north now...temp dropping...here we goes Yeah, it was nice out, until a couple of minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 36. Down from 42. Wind picking up considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Yeah, winds just started ripping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Davis and other high ground areas to the west already in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 First big gust just ripped through the alley here at work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Cue Jaws theme: Arctic front moves overhead. Dangerous cold is imminent! Temps into single digits tonight w/ -10 to -25 wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Dangerous cold is lol. I swear most wx people double majored in drama. Put on some clothes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Dangerous cold is lol. I swear most wx people double majored in drama. Put on some clothes! might be dangerous if you are a nudist.....which Im hoping you are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Dangerous cold is lol. I swear most wx people double majored in drama. Put on some clothes! people get stuck in numbers and stats. at the end of the week, people will look back and say "it was cold that day". winter is like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Its dangerous if you live in a cardboard box and dont have many clothes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Its dangerous if you live in a cardboard box and dont have many clothes..So is a 20 degree snowstorm. I don't think that's the target audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Dangerous cold is lol. I swear most wx people double majored in drama. Put on some clothes! Can't wait until you're 70 and the heat still doesn't work in your apartment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 So is a 20 degree snowstorm. I don't think that's the target audience. I think that's the important point -- everyone trying to pretend that this is dangerous to a large cross section of population while in reality it's only dangerous to a very small minority at risk to such events and is at risk every winter even when nobody cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 I think that's the important point -- everyone trying to pretend that this is dangerous to a large cross section of population while in reality it's only dangerous to a very small minority at risk to such events and is at risk every winter even when nobody cares.The mainstream wx reporting world is in the midst if losing its mind without care. And NWS seems like they feel they are supposed to follow to stay relevant. It's going to be cold here but only really special due to lack of it lately. And yes to other pts. My heat is fixed leesturd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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