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Early January 2014 cold snaps - featuring the polar vortex of doom


Ian

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Wes made a good point about really windy conditions mitigating the discrepancy between DCA and surroundings. That is to be expected as the mixing offsets the warmth factors. What I would really like to see is an 8" snowcover everywhere including an iced over Potomac, with clear skies and light wind. At that point, 95% of the heat inducing elements would be covered in over a half foot of snow.. Even then, I think, DCA would still be skewed including the closer by Andrews and the like.

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It's simple and I have lived it. Few night ago when I hit 6.5 and so many other areas , probably 98%+ of the square footage of DC metro area, were in the single digits DCA was 17. In the 70's into the 80's DCA would have had a min of 11/12 and in the 50's 60's probably 9/10. The river is another excuse and basically you only have to make excuses when something is wrong or all evidence appears so. Annapolis is on the Bay, it does not do this.

Good luck trying to interview someone at DCA about this. They will refer you to the FAA, the FAA will refer you to NWS.

It has not been done on purpose, it just slipped nicely into the AGW debate and no effort will be made to rectify it.

Establish a station in the 1880's move it many times with no accounting/adjustment for that, take an area that is over 50% marsh and build it out entirely and make no accounting/adjustment for that and have what you have now.

Imagine a station that was established as official and all around it was buildings. The buildings get torn down and a huge lake is built all around the site. Do you think there would be a change in temperatures and do you think some effort would be made to account/adjust for that?

AGW is not just about GHG emissions. It appears other human induced activity has been taking place around your measure station whilst the cold has been lacking.

You are quite the prickly chap, I must say.

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Wes made a good point about really windy conditions mitigating the discrepancy between DCA and surroundings. That is to be expected as the mixing offsets the warmth factors. What I would really like to see is an 8" snowcover everywhere including an iced over Potomac, with clear skies and light wind. At that point, 95% of the heat inducing elements would be covered in over a half foot of snow.. Even then, I think, DCA would still be skewed including the closer by Andrews and the like.

 

no doubt DCA would be skewed in that scenario....we have seen that for years now on calm nights after big snowstorms...15+ degree differences between DCA and IAD...IAD doesn't get as cold as it used to....it is too built up now, but no question DCA is going to be warmer than all of suburban DC metro on a calm snowcovered night.....part of it is UHI, part is location...since 1900, DC has only had 2 lows colder than -5.....IAD since 1962 has had around 20 (DCA - 0).....Andrews wouldn't be a bad place...they can sometimes get much colder than DCA as you have noted...There is nothing wrong with the sensor or siting at DCA imo...it is on a river in a concrete jungle at sea level which is going to skew the low temps...

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Looks like the front is alone the east shore of the Bay right now based on winds.  Cold air is lagging behind a bit.  Freezing line along the Blue Ridge. 

 

winds were picking up as I was leaving the house, though temp was 45

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ054>057-061730-

/O.NEW.KLWX.WC.Y.0002.140107T0500Z-140107T2300Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-

CALVERT-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...

WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG

422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM

EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* WIND CHILL...5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE

EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING...THEN LOWS

IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS TUESDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD THEN LEAD TO

FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS

WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN

FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND

GLOVES.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

MDZ003-VAZ025>031-WVZ050>053-055-061730-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WC.A.0001.140106T2300Z-140107T1700Z/

/O.EXB.KLWX.WC.W.0001.140106T2300Z-140107T2300Z/

WASHINGTON-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-

CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...

HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG...

CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD

422 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM

EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST WIND

CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING...THEN LOWS

ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TONIGHT AND 10 TO 15 ABOVE TUESDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE

AND HYPOTHERMIA THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND

STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS

WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF

PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

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So is a 20 degree snowstorm. I don't think that's the target audience.

 

I think that's the important point -- everyone trying to pretend that this is dangerous to a large cross section of population while in reality it's only dangerous to a very small minority at risk to such events and is at risk every winter even when nobody cares.

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I think that's the important point -- everyone trying to pretend that this is dangerous to a large cross section of population while in reality it's only dangerous to a very small minority at risk to such events and is at risk every winter even when nobody cares.

The mainstream wx reporting world is in the midst if losing its mind without care. And NWS seems like they feel they are supposed to follow to stay relevant.

It's going to be cold here but only really special due to lack of it lately. And yes to other pts.

My heat is fixed leesturd.

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