Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think even Dulles may struggle to get below 0 when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think even Dulles may struggle to get below 0 when all is said and done. If I had to guess now, I'd say Leesburg sees negative temps but Dulles stalls at 0/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think even Dulles may struggle to get below 0 when all is said and done. It will be a believe when we see it for sure. Our resume of not hitting big lows is too extensive to bet against. I'm more interested in dca have a high in the teens. I hope they score that above all else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Are the following numbers right for DCA? Since 1/94, the coldest two days at DCA for average daily temp are 2/4/96 (17 high/9 low) and 2/5/96 (21/5)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 It will be a believe when we see it for sure. Our resume of not hitting big lows is too extensive to bet against. I'm more interested in dca have a high in the teens. I hope they score that above all else. For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: dulles-lows.gif yeah...and a few of those were insane...I think IAD had a low of -18 in 1984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Are the following numbers right for DCA? Since 1/94, the coldest two days at DCA for average daily temp are 2/4/96 (17 high/9 low) and 2/5/96 (21/5)? I think so....Ian? a couple other were 14.5 i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: dulles-lows.gif IAD used to have no trouble dipping below zero on a calm night with snow cover. 2/79, 1/84 and 1/87 all had extreme examples. And, 2/18/79 was a mind boggling hi/lo combo: 8/-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think so....Ian? a couple other were 14.5 i think Probably.. lemme see if I can pull it up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think so....Ian? a couple other were 14.5 i think So, if DCA can eek out a, say, 18/7, it *would* be the coldest day in two decades. Even falling somewhat short would still be the coldest day in 18 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: dulles-lows.gif And arguably, those extreme lows do not necessarily mean those winters were snowy. Seems like our best snows happen when there are less temperature extremes. (Amateurs obs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 yeah...and a few of those were insane...I think IAD had a low of -18 in 1984 And this lovely stretch after the 1/22/87 snow, including the day of the second 10" storm: 1/24/87: -2 F 1/25/87: -5 F 1/26/87: 3 F 1/27/87: -9 F 1/28/87: -17 F (!) 1/29/87: -1 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: dulles-lows.gif Wow, that is telling. But not surprising unfortunately. I know memory is foggy. Especially going back to child/teenage times. But we used to play ice hockey on ponds in the 80's a lot. Ice was totally safe. The 70's speak for themselves. One thing that has hurt us in the last 5 years or so is the cold being focused on russia etc. They've had some brutal cold even at latitudes similar to ours in southern russia and china. Not the case this year. And it makes a huge difference because we are getting some good cold with lack of blocking. Upper midwest is going old school this year. It's pretty obvious we don't do low lows often at all anymore and it's not just because we've warmed a degree or 2 the last 20 years as a planet. At least this winter has some cold talking points in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: dulles-lows.gif That's crazy. Not one day below 0 in two decades...wow. I guess I really never will experience what my parents experienced back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Probably.. lemme see if I can pull it up quick. I checked the coldest days during 1/03, 1/04, 2/07, and 1/09-- none of those matched the 2/96 days. I don't think I'm missing a cold wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 That's crazy. Not one day below 0 in two decades...wow. I guess I really never will experience what my parents experienced back then. Well, 2009 they hit 0. There might be a few others like that. Sometimes things look quite different based on a degree or two. But, the trend there is clearly that it's harder to get below zero. I know the area around Dulles has expanded quite a bit which must factor in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 And this lovely stretch after the 1/22/87 snow, including the day of the second 10" storm: 1/24/87: -2 F 1/25/87: -5 F 1/26/87: 3 F 1/27/87: -9 F 1/28/87: -17 F (!) 1/29/87: -1 F yep...insane Am I correct that since 1/94, we have only had 2 days with a max in the teens....2/96 and 1/09?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I checked the coldest days during 1/03, 1/04, 2/07, and 1/09-- none of those matched the 2/96 days. I don't think I'm missing a cold wave.... This is the top 10 coldest avg at DCA since/including 1994 1/19/1994 2.0 1/16/1994 11.5 1/15/1994 12.0 1/20/1994 13.0 2/4/1996 13.0 2/5/1996 13.0 1/21/1994 14.0 1/10/2004 14.5 1/16/2009 14.5 2/6/1995 16.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 And this lovely stretch after the 1/22/87 snow, including the day of the second 10" storm: 1/24/87: -2 F 1/25/87: -5 F 1/26/87: 3 F 1/27/87: -9 F 1/28/87: -17 F (!) 1/29/87: -1 F Wow. That's ridiculous. I would think that stretch would top any 6 day minimums for any major city outside of Northern New England including Boston and Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 yep...insane Am I correct that since 1/94, we have only had 2 days with a max in the teens....2/96 and 1/09?? These are the coldest maxes since/including 1994 at DCA 1994 1/19/1994 8 1995 2/6/1995 25 1996 2/4/1996 17 1997 1/18/1997 22 1998 12/23/1998 28 1999 1/2/1999 25 2000 1/18/2000 22 2001 2/22/2001 29 2002 12/5/2002 30 2003 1/23/2003 22 2004 1/10/2004 21 2005 1/22/2005 23 2006 2/19/2006 30 2007 2/5/2007 22 2008 12/22/2008 28 2009 1/16/2009 18 2010 1/30/2010 23 2011 1/22/2011 28 2012 1/22/2012 32 2013 1/25/2013 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 For all the focus on DCA heat island I think this graphic is pretty telling.. had not looked till last night: dulles-lows.gif That graph correlates pretty well to the amount of development that's taken place in the Dulles area in the last 20 years. I don't know exactly where Dulles's readings are taken, but there are definitely edges of the airport that wouldn't be directly affected by being on/near concrete, though I assume temps would be moderated somewhat just due to all the concrete within a couple miles of the airport no matter where the station is located. I wonder how that graph correlates to below zero readings at regional sites that aren't affected by UHI or UHI-like effects. Is it all UHI-related, or is it also a reflection of a change in global climactic regimes during that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wow. That's ridiculous. I would think that stretch would top any 6 day minimums for any major city outside of Northern New England including Boston and Hartford. How about 12 lows in the single digits during 12/89 at IAD? That's pretty crazy impressive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 That graph correlates pretty well to the amount of development that's taken place in the Dulles area in the last 20 years. I don't know exactly where Dulles's readings are taken, but there are definitely edges of the airport that wouldn't be directly affected by being on/near concrete, though I assume temps would be moderated somewhat just due to all the concrete within a couple miles of the airport no matter where the station is located. I wonder how that graph correlates to below zero readings at regional sites that aren't affected by UHI or UHI-like effects. Is it all UHI-related, or is it also a reflection of a change in global climactic regimes during that time? Yeah that's a good question in second para. I think all three local sites are UHI impacted so it's hard to tell if it's just that or climate change. I guess you'd need to look at places in the Apps etc. My guess is the frequency is down there too but perhaps not as much.This is big cold no doubt but even for the upper Midwest for this to be the coldest since the 1990s must indicate we've had less cold in the past 20 years or so overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 These are the coldest maxes since/including 1994 at DCA 1994 1/19/1994 8 1995 2/6/1995 25 1996 2/4/1996 17 1997 1/18/1997 22 1998 12/23/1998 28 1999 1/2/1999 25 2000 1/18/2000 22 2001 2/22/2001 29 2002 12/5/2002 30 2003 1/23/2003 22 2004 1/10/2004 21 2005 1/22/2005 23 2006 2/19/2006 30 2007 2/5/2007 22 2008 12/22/2008 28 2009 1/16/2009 18 2010 1/30/2010 23 2011 1/22/2011 28 2012 1/22/2012 32 2013 1/25/2013 25 thanks...that is more interesting to me...we suck at mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So far in MN, forecast highs had to be raised in the morning update, so the initial push into MN is under-performing just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This is the top 10 coldest avg at DCA since/including 1994 1/19/1994 2.0 1/16/1994 11.5 1/15/1994 12.0 1/20/1994 13.0 2/4/1996 13.0 2/5/1996 13.0 1/21/1994 14.0 1/10/2004 14.5 1/16/2009 14.5 2/6/1995 16.0 Where'd you find the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 These are the coldest maxes since/including 1994 at DCA 1994 1/19/1994 8 1995 2/6/1995 25 1996 2/4/1996 17 1997 1/18/1997 22 1998 12/23/1998 28 1999 1/2/1999 25 2000 1/18/2000 22 2001 2/22/2001 29 2002 12/5/2002 30 2003 1/23/2003 22 2004 1/10/2004 21 2005 1/22/2005 23 2006 2/19/2006 30 2007 2/5/2007 22 2008 12/22/2008 28 2009 1/16/2009 18 2010 1/30/2010 23 2011 1/22/2011 28 2012 1/22/2012 32 2013 1/25/2013 25 Do you have this same data for 1970-1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 How about 12 lows in the single digits during 12/89 at IAD? That's pretty crazy impressive too. Just went back and took a look at BWI during that span in 87 and although it was very impressive there too it was nothing in comparison to IAD. The lowest temp.recorded at BWI during those six days was 0. No low below zero and BWI always radiates very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Where'd you find the temps? I have a spreadsheet of all the DCA temps.. famartin sent me DCA/BWI/IAD a few years ago. I just made a column for AVG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Do you have this same data for 1970-1993? 1970 1/9/1970 12 1971 2/1/1971 22 1972 1/16/1972 18 1973 1/8/1973 24 1974 1/13/1974 33 1975 1/14/1975 31 1976 1/18/1976 24 1977 1/17/1977 18 1978 1/10/1978 23 1979 2/18/1979 15 1980 3/1/1980 21 1981 1/12/1981 22 1982 1/17/1982 10 1983 12/25/1983 14 1984 1/21/1984 20 1985 1/21/1985 17 1986 1/28/1986 23 1987 1/25/1987 17 1988 1/6/1988 20 1989 12/22/1989 17 1990 2/26/1990 31 1991 1/22/1991 26 1992 1/19/1992 25 1993 12/28/1993 25 Here's the whole record in a graph with lows too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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