ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 78, some very light snow as the coastal scoots way east. Moderate precip staying offshore. cant say I didnt see this one coming a few hours back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 84 it's moving out. Eastern LI getting moderate snow. 2-4" and 3-6" type deal and that might be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 meanwhile this is going to wind up being a light snow/flurries system with 1-3" for the lucky ones 1-3 for the lucky ones? Based only off of the 0z runs? You do know that we still have plenty of runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not that these 0z runs are wrong by any means but just unreal on a consistency level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 cant say I didnt see this one coming a few hours back UK and non amplified NAM were telling signals... Good news is all the energy isn't sampled yet. we still have till the Ball drops tomorrow to nail something close to the finals solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is everyone surprised. You expected a blizzard on every run? That mentioned, the euro has been so bad compare to how it was a few years back. there isnt ONE model that shows anything more than light to maybe moderate snow for a period....and, of course, NOW the euro is bad. The last two runs its was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What's actually pretty cool is that if it plays out like this, as disorganized and out to sea, then the NAM skunked every model out there. In fact, the almighty EURO will have been the last to see straight. Guess we can't always discount the NAM when it's out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well if things look this bleak by tomorrow night, then its going to be time to pack it up. Especially since the energy will be sampled tomorrow by 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 1-3 for the lucky ones? Based only off of the 0z runs? You do know that we still have plenty of runs to go. based on that euro run i said 1-3" for the lucky ones.... its entirely possible that in 24 hrs this will a nada event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 cant say I didnt see this one coming a few hours backYeah you actually start believing that it will snow after you have a few inches already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 84 it's moving out. Eastern LI getting moderate snow. 2-4" and 3-6" type deal and that might be generous. Maybe I'm misreading; but that looks like 0.5 - 1.00 LE over Long Island...have I misread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not what I was hoping to see at all. We absolutely need that amplified trend to happen for this to be any kind of real event here, and relying on an inverted trough almost never works out. Several inches might be generous if the overrunning snow really does end up along I-90 and nothing else kicks in along the coast. Might just be a quick 1-2" deal if that happens. Hopefully this turns around by 12z tomorrow, but the better sampling might mean we're zeroing in on the outcome more. Argh, a nailbiter just as I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well if things look this bleak by tomorrow night, then its going to be time to pack it up. Especially since the energy will be sampled tomorrow by 18z Pack up what? This will still produce a light to moderate snowfall for the area. I don't get these responses at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What's actually pretty cool is that if it plays out like this, as disorganized and out to sea, then the NAM skunked every model out there. In fact, the almighty EURO will have been the last to see straight. Guess we can't always discount the NAM when it's out of its range. watch the NAM at 6Z come in amped and all of the weenies will hug it like its the gospel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah you actually start believing that it will snow after you have a few inches already on the ground. Don't be shocked if the models bring this back tomorrow or tomorrow night. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This happens with every storm. People give up because the models take away their storm. Once the models bring it back, people jump on the bandwagon again. Give it until tomorrow night for the big storm theory. If it doesn't happen, then just be happy with a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don't be shocked if the models bring this back tomorrow or tomorrow night. WX/PT PT, whats up??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don't be shocked if the models bring this back tomorrow or tomorrow night. WX/PT You just read my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 based on that euro run i said 1-3" for the lucky ones.... its entirely possible that in 24 hrs this will a nada event Is it also possible to trend back the other way. I have no clue what will happen as must don't. There's def a chance you are right too. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pack up what? This will still produce a light to moderate snowfall for the area. I don't get these responses at all. That it would be time to get off the idea that this would be a "MECS" I've been saying this would be a light to moderate event for us since about Sunday, so I'm fine with whats happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 watch the NAM at 6Z come in amped and all of the weenies will hug it like its the gospel I'll wait until 00Z before accepting the true final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This happens with every storm. People give up because the models take away their storm. Once the models bring it back, people jump on the bandwagon again. Give it until tomorrow night for the big storm theory. If it doesn't happen, then just be happy with a moderate snowfall. dude - this doesnt happen every storm. Usually there is at least one model, even a crappy one, that keeps the big solution,...here they are all trending to a non-event, not a small event, a non event....there is something horribly wrong with the models if they all bring back a bigger solution tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't understand how so many people can claim either victory or defeat for one model's output or another's, when we are still 60-72 hours away from the start of the event and all the main pieces of energy, which will (or will not) become our storm(s), are not even onshore yet, meaning the model accuracy, due to error propagation from a limited initialization data set, is still questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That it would be time to get off the idea that this would be a "MECS" I've been saying this would be a light to moderate event for us since about Sunday, so I'm fine with whats happening now. I agree about the MECS idea. Nothing wrong with a light to moderate event, although doing a foot post in a foot of snow would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 based on that euro run i said 1-3" for the lucky ones.... its entirely possible that in 24 hrs this will a nada event I don't mind ur posts usually but the arrogance In Which u write ur posts is very annoying I must say... I know many people like you...even if every model on the planet showed 12" of snow u would post cynical nonsense about how ur skeptical and claim u saw it coming lol... Allow those that enjoy discussing the model runs for what there worth post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This happens with every storm. People give up because the models take away their storm. Once the models bring it back, people jump on the bandwagon again. Give it until tomorrow night for the big storm theory. If it doesn't happen, then just be happy with a moderate snowfall. The problem is the overrunning event-models still mostly have that overshooting us for mostly around I-90 and SNE. Therefore we have to rely on the coastal redevelopment, and if that doesn't pan out and the trough is kicked out too fast, we're really just left in the huge middle-finger dry slot. I still like our odds for "something", but the progressive nature of the pattern may yet ruin our chances. I mean the pattern just screams along like crazy-can't have a shortwave to itself for any time until the next one kicks it east and flattens the amplification. And the block isn't strong enough to stop it like it was in Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That it would be time to get off the idea that this would be a "MECS" I've been saying this would be a light to moderate event for us since about Sunday, so I'm fine with whats happening now. And you are? Which model are you? This is dumb. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't understand how so many people can claim either victory or defeat for one model's output or another's, when we are still 60-72 hours away from the start of the event and all the main pieces of energy, which will (or will not) become our storm(s), are not even onshore yet, meaning the model accuracy, due to error propagation from a limited initialization data set, is still questionable. i dont think anyone is claiming a win or a loss. The writing is on the wall....the Mets for the most part see it. Lets just hope we ring in the new year with a few inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 dude - this doesnt happen every storm. Usually there is at least one model, even a crappy one, that keeps the big solution,...here they are all trending to a non-event, not a small event, a non event....there is something horribly wrong with the models if they all bring back a bigger solution tomorrow They could all bring it back tomorrow. It has happened in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe I'm misreading; but that looks like 0.5 - 1.00 LE over Long Island...have I misread? You are correct and coastal NJ too...I finally caved and looked at weatherbell. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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