ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? This is a good point. If the GFS had showed a wound up storm, widespread 12-18", I doubt anyone would be saying "throw it out". You'd hear a lot of "GFS may be on to something bigger here !!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? Absolutely. If not, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? Then I'd say that the storms a dud, but for now let's just keeping monitoring the other computer model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is a good point. If the GFS had showed a wound up storm, widespread 12-18", I doubt anyone would be saying "throw it out". You'd hear a lot of "GFS may be on to something bigger here !!" No one said throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The GFS starts snowing lightly as early as New Years Day night and ends Friday morning just to be clear. Watches will probably be hoisted for at least part of the area with the overnight packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? "When"? Sounds like you're speaking as if the Euro's going to hell tonight. It may, but...calling it already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. We'll see soon enough when the updated diagnostic discussion comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Then I'd say that the storms a dud, but for now let's just keeping monitoring the other computer model outputs. Chill guys. Still two days of model tracking and then nowcasting to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still VERY early in the game! give it 24hrs and lets see. Ill say that 8-12 is a strong pos. for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? What if there actually ARE convective feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All the models show it snowing in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well one good point is that if we were in the bullseye right now, it could only trend against us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What if there actually ARE convective feedback issues? then will have to accept 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 convective feedback issues is quickly becoming one of the most overused, annoying and for the most out of context cliche's in modelology. When the Euro shows the same type of outcome will it also have issues? Apparently it's a real thing. It's used in mets write ups and discos about storms. Not sure it's annoying and overused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What if there actually ARE convective feedback issues? The GFS' idea of the screwy lead low could very well be exactly that, the GFS has done this a few times now the past 2-3 years and its been stuck on the idea in each event til 36-48 hours out, I recall the NAM even catching on a few times before it did...if the Euro and its ensembles still hold tonight I'll strongly consider tossing the Op GFS idea til it stops with the double low feature....it tried to move away from it this run a bit but still seemed to develop the lead low earlier than it should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The ridge axis looks to be in a great spot , argues for this to be pulled N E, not E . Im sorry but the GFS does this I like where we are . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets be honest, its a bust for the NYC metro area. Maybe a dusting. It OTS!!!! Lets look for the next one. No, you can't say that. Its only one model at one time. Plus it does show some light to moderate snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What are the ensembles showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I just want to know what's causing the low to develop so far east if it's not convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Rich was kidding with that post. He just posted a few minutes ago how he feels 8-12" is a strong possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike McDonnell Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets not forget to mention the arctic hammer coming early next week. Green Bay game Saturday looks frigid and snowy. Looks like the GFS also cooking something up for the early part of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GGEM improved aloft, still sloppy at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS at 165 hours looks mighty interesting id say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What if there actually ARE convective feedback issues? on EVERY model run with every storm that doesnt show a big snow storm? COME ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is 21 Wednesday the same as 4PM Wednesday? 1600 EST so yes (EST = GMT -5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What's the ukmet showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tonight's guidance tells me little more than that there is still a lot of uncertainty. At least some accumulating snow is likely, the question concerns how much. Southern New England continues to have the best chance at receiving a significant snowfall, but a moderate snowfall is not out of the question for the NYC area. The NAM trended better. The GFS trended worse (mixed if one considers somewhat better 500 mb presentation). FWIW, Boston received the same qpf as it did on the 12z run and almost the same amount as it received on the 18z one. This suggests that the location and timing of the phase will be key and that's something that probably requires more time for the modeling to work out. In theory, the higher resolution guidance should do a little better, particularly the ECMWF. But that isn't always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Read on acccuweather forum. NWScott says Ukmet looks like trash out west. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Rich was kidding with that post. He just posted a few minutes ago how he feels 8-12" is a strong possibility Exactly. Everyone needs to stop for a min. and relax. It will come around, this will be a "good" storm! Lets enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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