Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hr 78 steady snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Geeezz Just figured out 21 means 4PM what time and day is hour 60 or 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hr 84 the steady snow is moving out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow maps are 2-4" and 3-6" in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Geeezz Just figured out 21 means 4PM what time and day is hour 60 or 66? Check on the top image....for example, 21 would be 5 pm (9pm-5)....it gives the date and time on the top of each image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The storm is so massive, it was real close to a monster solution this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Really not a good run here...sorry :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 87 still snowing, lt. cold crashing south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Geeezz Just figured out 21 means 4PM what time and day is hour 60 or 66? 72 is 3 days from 0z (7pm) tonight so the gfs seems to start much later than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 heavy stuff stays off shore for the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Geeezz Just figured out 21 means 4PM what time and day is hour 60 or 66? 21 is equal to 9pm local time. If its 21z (Zulu or GMT time) then subtract 5 hours for EST and 4 hours EDT. 60, 66 etc refer to hours from model initialization for the specific model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look at the 850mb low compared to the shortwave and the surface low, its totally screwing it...lol if anything I'm even more happy about this run, EURO will stay course and the others will slowly coincide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run is actually better aloft, but not as good at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0.25-0.50" west of the city this run, slightly more north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike McDonnell Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS right where you would expect. Shoots storm out to the east too quickly. Look at the MSLP maps, they show a kink in the isobars hanging back to the coast. GFS typically focuses its energy into front running lows...would expect the low to be closer to the coast in reality and the precip field as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It definitely looks improved despite what it shows on the surface and I don't think it's done trending. It's pretty classic gfs actually where it trends better and better as we get closer when it comes to strong, massive storms like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'd rather have runs that get better and better though not ideal this far out than to have runs that fulfill our wishes now, only to deflate within 48 hours. To me, trending in a particular direction over several runs is more important than the value of a single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Trof goes neg tilt too late this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Convective feed back errors continue, a strung out surface low and upper air dynamics that don't even match the surface = GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Stop hugging the snowmaps. That was an awesome run for this area and taking into account the GFS known biases all of that heavy precip just offshore should be ours come storm time. I also feel the GFS is downplaying the CAD signature as it has done all season leading up to storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Trof goes neg tilt too late this run. It's needs to dig a bit more faster and then we will see excellent results. The GFS isn't that far from doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Light to moderate snowfall ending by 1800Z on Friday 01/03/14 as per the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When you look at 500mb you can see a whole lot of vorticy and sometimes the models have a hard time keying in on which piece of energy to focus on. Once the pieces are better sampled things should finally start looking clearer. The good news is that a complete whiff looks off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 nice run for gfs at this time frame. lot of positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i see the timing as problematic. To me, this looked like a thursday event from yesterday. Now, we have models starting the precip on Wednesday evening. And in the case of this particular GFS run, it ends the snow before the thursday PM rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think we're still pretty far away from the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i see the timing as problematic. To me, this looked like a thursday event from yesterday. Now, we have models starting the precip on Wednesday evening. And in the case of this particular GFS run, it ends the snow before the thursday PM rush. Huh? It snows until Friday morning on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When you look at 500mb you can see a whole lot of vorticy and sometimes the models have a hard time keying in on which piece of energy to focus on. Once the pieces are better sampled things should finally start looking clearer. The good news is that a complete whiff looks off the table. From your mouth to mother nature's ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i see the timing as problematic. To me, this looked like a thursday event from yesterday. Now, we have models starting the precip on Wednesday evening. And in the case of this particular GFS run, it ends the snow before the thursday PM rush. Someone just said it ends Friday 1800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i see the timing as problematic. To me, this looked like a thursday event from yesterday. Now, we have models starting the precip on Wednesday evening. And in the case of this particular GFS run, it ends the snow before the thursday PM rush. Your timing is off. Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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