WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow I just looked at the SREFs....looks like a 6-10 inches on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:05 AM, WintersGrasp said: Wow I just looked at the SREFs....looks like a 6-10 inches on there Its accounting for the high snow ratios LGA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The RGEM looks slightly better at 48 hours than the NAM but its hard to tell where it would head but probably a slightly better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well we have a good semblance of what the models want to do, which is great. I guess everything will depend on whether we see a nice clean phase, or a more disjointed partial or late phase. Regardless, a nice moderate event is looking pretty good right now with bitterly cold temperatures, which I'm sure most won't complain about. Next up gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That overrunning precipitation gets me so excited...the h7 rh field has really improved. Simulated radar shows snow falling as early as 21 Wednesday and not stopping until Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:13 AM, WintersGrasp said: This could be one of those rare storms where it snows for 12 to 18 hours at a steady half inch per hour and never gets too heavy or too light Trust me, if the EURO is right, & the NAM/GFS are right in its depiction of 500mb, it won't be one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:15 AM, earthlight said: That overrunning precipitation gets me so excited...the h7 rh field has really improved. Simulated radar shows snow falling as early as 21 Wednesday and not stopping until Friday morning. Yeah and I think the overrunning will be south of where the NAM shows it as well which will make the coastal people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Here is the slightly disjointed look I was speaking about earlier in high resolution. We're literally talking a few hours faster and the NAM has the northern stream phasing in and consolidating, helping to pull the subsequent surface low farther west and produce more expansive heavier precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:15 AM, earthlight said: That overrunning precipitation gets me so excited...the h7 rh field has really improved. Simulated radar shows snow falling as early as 21 Wednesday and not stopping until Friday morning. Is 21 Wednesday the same as 4PM Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:17 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah and I think the overrunning will be south of where the NAM shows it as well which will make the coastal people happy. Every single model has the overrunning north of NYC.. It isn't just the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:21 AM, snywx said: Every single model has the overrunning north of NYC.. It isn't just the NAM It was also forecast to be in Buffalo at this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 925mb low tracks off the NJ/Delmarva coast now..we need the 850mb and 700mb lows to close off faster. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/NE/namNE_925_temp_069.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Drumroll....the GFS has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:02 AM, earthlight said: Even the SREF and ARW/NMM members that don't have the big system show a moderate snowfall from overrunning. I think we're all in good shape for a several inch snow event at least. The big question after that is the phasing, and whether we can really rely on inverted troughs for snow (I always hate relying on those to produce as they could verify 150 miles away from where models have them a day out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:25 AM, WintersGrasp said: Drumroll....the GFS has begun Here is the NAM at JFK at 00Z Precip initially rain and goes to light snow and gets very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:30 AM, WeatherFox said: Here is the NAM at JFK at 00Z Precip initially rain and goes to light snow and gets very cold. The NAM is adjusting toward the other solutions and should get colder. Hopefully the other models keep the amplified solutions and the GFS stops the convective feedback routine it's had the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The GFS looks more aggressive and consolidated with the northern stream. We'll see if it translates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Going to want the south trend to stop this run. If not, then you can extrapolate what may continue to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:19 AM, sferic said: Is 21 Wednesday the same as 4PM Wednesday? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS dry thru 45 hours for NYC. Snow stretches from northern Ilinois into northern western PA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:37 AM, earthlight said: The GFS looks more aggressive and consolidated with the northern stream. We'll see if it translates. Yes very much so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run looks much better. More consolidated and amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lot of moisture coming out of gulf at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 DIG BABY DIG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Light snow looks like it might develop in NYC by hour 66 as per the 00Z GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hr 72 light snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:47 AM, WeatherFox said: Light snow looks like it might develop in NYC by hour 66 as per the 00Z GFS . Yes it does at 1800Z 01/02/14 - 66 hours away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Big improvement in almost every aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hr 78 steady snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:49 AM, Allsnow said: Hr 72 light snow in the area Maybe virga or only flurries a few hours earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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