WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lets keep this model threads test going... SREF: 8:20 NAM: 9:00 RGEM: 10:20 GFS: 10:30 UKMET: 10:40 GGEM: 11:00 GEFS (EN): 12:00 ECMWF: 12:45 ECM (EN): 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lets keep these model threads test going... SREF: 8:20 NAM: 9:00 RGEM: 10:20 GFS: 10:30 UKMET: 10:40 GGEM: 11:00 GEFS (En): 12:00 ECMWF: 12:45 ECM (EN): 3:00 Points for Tonight: SREF's and especially the NAM are still outside of there capable range for reference for those teetering on the edge of sanity. most important thing to look for tonight is can the northern stream dig towards the gulf and get that LP from the gulf negatively tilted in time. we are still in the stages where trends rule and not the actual outcome. statistically speaking the EURO is pretty damn good in this range with southern stream system Notes: -GFS 12z model run today went to a pure miller A system that was very close to delivering a blizzard like scenario - EURO had a hybrid A/B system but still amped up and showing a big storm not far off from producing something big -18Z GFS had a similar outcome if you dug through the CFI to the 12z GFS -This storm coming out of the gulf showed one thing, it will be enormous in size as seen on the GFS/EURO, and like all Gulf lows will NOT lack a ton of moistre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this is out of control with these threads. how can we have any continuity within our discussion with 3-4 different threads for the SAME threat? mods need to correct the situation, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this is out of control with these threads. how can we have any continuity within our discussion with 3-4 different threads for the SAME threat? mods need to correct the situation, IMO. it is the revitalization of an amwx tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 this is out of control with these threads. how can we have any continuity within our discussion with 3-4 different threads for the SAME threat? mods need to correct the situation, IMO. We used to do each model in its own thread (6z GFS, 12z Euro, etc.). This way is better than having everything in one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 this is out of control with these threads. how can we have any continuity within our discussion with 3-4 different threads for the SAME threat? mods need to correct the situation, IMO. I agree. PLEASE stick with one thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I agree. PLEASE stick with one thread The point was to have a separate thread to discuss and do play by plays for 18z, 0z, 12z runs etc. without alot of commenting on unrelated things concerning the storm. General discussion should go in the storm thread and only the particularly model discussion, in this case 0z tonight, should be in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets keep these model threads test going... Points for Tonight: SREF's and especially the NAM are still outside of there capable range for reference for those teetering on the edge of sanity. most important thing to look for tonight is can the northern stream dig towards the gulf and get that LP from the gulf negatively tilted in time. we are still in the stages where trends rule and not the actual outcome. statistically speaking the EURO is pretty damn good in this range with southern stream system Notes: -GFS 12z model run today went to a pure miller A system that was very close to delivering a blizzard like scenario - EURO had a hybrid A/B system but still amped up and showing a big storm not far off from producing something big -18Z GFS had a similar outcome if you dug through the CFI to the 12z GFS -This storm coming out of the gulf showed one thing, it will be enormous in size as seen on the GFS/EURO, and like all Gulf lows will NOT lack a ton of moistre Great post, along with the model times. It is definitely important to realize that there have been convective feedback issues with the GFS and not jump off a cliff with either outcome it shows (OTS or blizzard). Hopefully the Euro will continue to trend in the right direction this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREFs were slightly dryer, but at this range it doesn't mean too much Nam is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yo yanksfan27 or allsnow get in here and do some PbP. you've nominated yourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I like separate model threads. No need to weed through random posts when someone just wants to see info from the model release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is noticeably more amplified already through 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think the titles of the threads should be different. They look too similar..thats why people keep posting on the 18z thread and ask for the 0z especially from mobile devices. 0z Model - Jan 3-4 Storm -12/31.....for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think the titles of the threads should be different. They look too similar..thats why people keep posting on the 18z thread and ask for the Oz especially from mobile devices. 0z Model - Jan 3-4 Storm ......for example. Agreed. I love the separate threads but the titles are annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 At 45 hours Northern branch doing a better job diving into the southern branch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Amplified, consolidated and digging into the southeast states at 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 54 hours looks really, really good. This run is more than likely to produce a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 light snow commences in NYC at 54 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When is that exactly? 54 hours from when? 8pm tonight? light snow commences in NYC at 54 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The northern stream is still surging southeastward into the trough base at 57 hours...this looks pretty fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When is that exactly? 54 hours from when? 8pm tonight? Late Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow you can see it coming together so well....HUGE changes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seriously you never know what the Nam will show. It looks pretty good at 57hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Man this is going to be close...the phase might be just a hair off at 60 hours. But it's stepped back towards the amplified solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When is that exactly? 54 hours from when? 8pm tonight? 6z or 1 am Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So when would Central Park start seeing accumulation. Is this event potentially a school closer for Thursday since that's the first day back for Teachers and students. I mean, hypothetically if blizzard watches are hoisted for Thursday by Wednesday afternoon that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Steady snow Thursday morning well north of NYC into boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Even if it doesn't end up showing a big storm you can tell it took a huge trend towards EURO with the vort digging, the rest is just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When is that exactly? 54 hours from when? 8pm tonight? yes 1AM Thu morning (wed night) 0600 utc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So atleast we know it took a step towards the EURO which great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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