Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think the models are correct and this continues to be surpressed south. This large cold mass in place I just don't see how the two will phase and move up the coast. I think I will be lucky to get 2 inches here in Amherst, NH where this is a south of the pike storm down to NYC. Very similar to January 2009. Though this is just my opinion thoughts? 40/70 Benchmark in Wilmington agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What factors would have to start to come into play for this to start shifting north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Dreams of massive ratios usually get squashed one way or another. Very often the modeled qpf is overdone and you need those 15-1 ratios to verify what would have fallen. lol I love the 850 jockeys - though this storm will bring out the fluff factor fairies. Just because it's cold doesn't mean you get 20:1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think NNE does ok with the preliminary. In fact I think a lot of people get 3-6 from that. What happens in runs 2 detainees whether or not this storm is a nice snow or a memorable dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The RGEM looks like it may be ever so slightly more headed for a better solution at 48 hours but its marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is suffering from convective feed-back. It's not a "we toss" bs thing. It's a toss because it's wrong. If this system goes on to be blasse 30 hours of light snow and flurries, it won't be for the NAM's current depiction of the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets keep the 0z models amped. Snowgooose is waving flags bc the nam is not nw of other guidance. Wonder if euro caves tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 36 hours to get there...would certainly be windy and bitterly cold...and I'm sure Leon approved.shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Leon approves everything these days. Ugh.shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 shot hour I just got back from trader joes where I bought Tito's vodka. It intrigues me. Anyone ever try it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 shot hour That was 1-330 @ attitash bar. Ginxy, i wanna see that 850 inflow continue to be several S.D. From normal , like the firehose of last march , which was like 4.5 -5 S.D. (Insane) Its pure arctic up here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lol I love the 850 jockeys - though this storm will bring out the fluff factor fairies. Just because it's cold doesn't mean you get 20:1!Have you looked at inflow? You seem to be overly conservative, almost like the JB anthesis, it's OK to be conservative but you seem to be taking it to another level, have a shot in Leon's name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I just got back from trader joes where I bought Tito's vodka. It intrigues me. Anyone ever try it? Perfect for Thursday and Friday storm drinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Have you looked at inflow? You seem to be overly conservative, almost like the JB anthesis, it's OK to be conservative but you seem to be taking it to another level, have a shot in Leon's name. Inflow of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Perfect for Thursday and Friday storm drinking.... Yeah that's what I'm thinking.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Inflow of what?vodka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is suffering from convective feed-back. It's not a "we toss" bs thing. It's a toss because it's wrong. If this system goes on to be blasse 30 hours of light snow and flurries, it won't be for the NAM's current depiction of the evolution. The NAM is a terrible model probably 8 out of 10 storms. Sure it may have convective issues but it's larger issue is that it sucks most of the time. That's just the plain truth. It's garbage. The comical flop between h84 at 18z and h78 at 0z shows why it's utterly worthless MOST of the time outside of maybe 30-42 hours. I haven't followed this at all other than what's been posted here. With no previous bias in place from early guidance I'll reserve judgment other than to say huge wound up lows have not been the norm this year. Instead less organized events have been, let's see what the other guidance brings in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 systems have been winding up....but they've been moving at the speed of light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 What factors would have to start to come into play for this to start shifting north? Good question. Firstly, we have to get closer in, because the models are detonating lows at least excuse imaginable, way too premature and prior to the main S/W mechanics crossing the baroclinic axis. Even the Euro has been guilty of this at times recently. These lows are born out of explosive convection born of intense baroclinicity as it is acted upon by very minimal diffluence aloft, and because there is so much instability present, the models then maximize; but that "steals" the dynamics away from the better deep layer mechanics for the latter S/W amplitude when it nears, such that the better forcing for low genesis has less to work with. It's common in progressive flows for this type of "convective shearing" of systems. To get a system further north in the models would require they stop blowing up lows too early. The only real way to correct for this is to put convective schemes in the models that truly work. Not sure why, but for some reason nearer term solutions seem to compensate and/or suppress over-zealous convective -derived low formation, in lieu of the better forcing that comes along with the S/W. So therein is the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 vodka +6 to 8 SDs? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 1/2 qpf seems like it's been the minimum for multiple days, 2-4 has been my minimum, obviously much more upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good question. Firstly, we have to get closer in, because the models are detonating lows at least excuse imaginable, way too premature and prior to the main S/W mechanics crossing the baroclinic axis. Even the Euro has been guilty of this at times recently. These lows are born out of explosive convection born of intense baroclinicity as it is acted upon by very minimal diffluence aloft, and because there is so much instability present, the models then maximize; but that "steals" the dynamics away from the better deep layer mechanics for the latter S/W amplitude when it nears, such that the better forcing for low genesis has less to work with. It's common in progressive flows for this type of "convective shearing" of systems. To get a system further north in the models would require they stop blowing up lows too early. The only real way to correct for this is to put convective schemes in the models that truly work. Not sure why, but for some reason nearer term solutions seem to compensate and/or suppress over-zealous convective -derived low formation, in lieu of the better forcing that comes along with the S/W. So therein is the answer. Hmmm premature detonation that can be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 +6 to 8 SDs? LOLbliz13 had + 6 and the colors were black because they didn't have the scale that high. Low bar here for this one at + 3 /4 but temps through the column are insanely cold. Feed me Seymour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Who the hell cares what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is a terrible model probably 8 out of 10 storms. Sure it may have convective issues but it's larger issue is that it sucks most of the time. That's just the plain truth. It's garbage. The comical flop between h84 at 18z and h78 at 0z shows why it's utterly worthless MOST of the time outside of maybe 30-42 hours. I haven't followed this at all other than what's been posted here. With no previous bias in place from early guidance I'll reserve judgment other than to say huge wound up lows have not been the norm this year. Instead less organized events have been, let's see what the other guidance brings in. How was the powdah day? Thigh burner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Who the hell cares what the NAM shows. Not A Mention=NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Who the hell cares what the NAM shows.MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hmmm premature detonation that can be serious.Didn't you minor in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is a terrible model probably 8 out of 10 storms. Sure it may have convective issues but it's larger issue is that it sucks most of the time. That's just the plain truth. It's garbage. The comical flop between h84 at 18z and h78 at 0z shows why it's utterly worthless MOST of the time outside of maybe 30-42 hours. I haven't followed this at all other than what's been posted here. With no previous bias in place from early guidance I'll reserve judgment other than to say huge wound up lows have not been the norm this year. Instead less organized events have been, let's see what the other guidance brings in. It's been a "gradient pattern" year thus far, which as I gather is a blogosphere met phrase creation that describes anomalously fast flows. ... Obviously, slow moving bombs are a commodity in that sort of regime. What we have here is just so much insano gradient that it tries really to produce way over the top. Removing convection issues in the runs, this would probably be a fast moving bomb with like 9 hours of choking wind and snow. But convection has been dominating as a limiting factor to more organized cyclogen, and until that gets ironed out it is not like we get a more coherent picture. Convection is actually making this durational in nature in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If this event turns out to be 36 hours of frosty, arctic, foreplay laden blue-balls, then I'm going to phase my foot with Leon's junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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