Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

But the GFS has fundamental flaws in how it handles east coast cyclogenesis and it does it over and over ...usually clueless in about the 72 hr to 144 hr period. The ECM is less god-like, but still better overall.

 

Cyclogenesis is so complex and there are so many approximations that are made in the numerics and physics it is amazing that models can do as well as they do. The Euro has lower truncation error and better assimilation than the GFS so it is right more often, but it still has those errors. And that's not even bringing in the error from the parametrization of microphysics, convection, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wtf? Who's spiking? Are you seriously doubting some snow? If the euro jumps another 75 you'll get more...lol.

Nobody is spiking really lol. I'm obviously on the " I want a ton of snow" train. However, the euro ensembles slid south again, and hopefully that stops tonight.

I know it'll snow lol, but just that 4 or 14 inches. Just trying to keep excitement I check for a few more runs

I hope everyone gets something of their liking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought I read that the H25 SDs were westerly?

They are. I just checked..not a slow mover case or long-duration event.  The 850 easterly component and anomaly are impressive. PWATS have come down a bit and shift south toward SNE LI and NNJ around a +4 this area. By 06z Fri +2 PWAT northern extent from about KBUF to KPSM looks SE New England gets scraped by +6

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nobody is spiking really lol. I'm obviously on the " I want a ton of snow" train. However, the euro ensembles slid south again, and hopefully that stops tonight.

I know it'll snow lol, but just that 4 or 14 inches. Just trying to keep excitement I check for a few more runs

You're in a very good spot. Reversal of the trend may happen but be careful what you wish for...lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wunderground.  Where else can I view them?  So negative omega is what I want?  How can you tell if it is positive or negative - the colors are confusing.

Usually only upward motion is plotted. I haven't seen the WU maps. Be careful for maps that show vertical velocity because a positive vertical velocity is upward motion.

 

w = -ω

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wunderground.  Where else can I view them?  So negative omega is what I want?  How can you tell if it is positive or negative - the colors are confusing.

coolwx.com has omega plots. Negative omega is upward motion and positive omega is downward motion so obviously if we want precip you're looking for negative omega.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just looked at WU...they have vertical velocity. So upward motion would be positive there.

but they also have the colors repeat on the negative side too.  What I guess I was trying to determine is if you can see where potential subsidence will set up based on the current models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

but they also have the colors repeat on the negative side too.  What I guess I was trying to determine is if you can see where potential subsidence will set up based on the current models.

Their color scheme is a bit of a pain, but the whole color shading legend doesn't repeat. You can find where the uvm is 0ub/s and go from there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...