Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 250 2.5 easterly component or westerly?POP of .5 in a 24 hr period were from 70 to 90% in SNE , I will have to go back, sucks on the phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 But the GFS has fundamental flaws in how it handles east coast cyclogenesis and it does it over and over ...usually clueless in about the 72 hr to 144 hr period. The ECM is less god-like, but still better overall. Cyclogenesis is so complex and there are so many approximations that are made in the numerics and physics it is amazing that models can do as well as they do. The Euro has lower truncation error and better assimilation than the GFS so it is right more often, but it still has those errors. And that's not even bringing in the error from the parametrization of microphysics, convection, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wouldn't be spiking any footballs yet, if the euro moves 50-75 miles south again tonight, I think that's cause for real concern. Pretty much need it to stop now Wtf? Who's spiking? Are you seriously doubting some snow? If the euro jumps another 75 you'll get more...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When looking at H7 how can you tell if the UVV is positive or negative because the colors repeat? Also, if it is negative is that an area of subsidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 250 2.5 easterly component or westerly? 250 2.5 easterly component or westerly?Yep my bad Westerly, god it's hard to see , lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When looking at H7 how can you tell if the UVV is positive or negative because the colors repeat? Also, if it is negative is that an area of subsidence? Where are you viewing them? Negative omega is upward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Where are you viewing them? Negative omega is upward motion. Wunderground. Where else can I view them? So negative omega is what I want? How can you tell if it is positive or negative - the colors are confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wtf? Who's spiking? Are you seriously doubting some snow? If the euro jumps another 75 you'll get more...lol.Nobody is spiking really lol. I'm obviously on the " I want a ton of snow" train. However, the euro ensembles slid south again, and hopefully that stops tonight. I know it'll snow lol, but just that 4 or 14 inches. Just trying to keep excitement I check for a few more runs I hope everyone gets something of their liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I thought I read that the H25 SDs were westerly? They are. I just checked..not a slow mover case or long-duration event. The 850 easterly component and anomaly are impressive. PWATS have come down a bit and shift south toward SNE LI and NNJ around a +4 this area. By 06z Fri +2 PWAT northern extent from about KBUF to KPSM looks SE New England gets scraped by +6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm starting to become concerned that this is coming in too far south for ski country. Am I a crazy weenie or us this thing not going to spread the love up past the NH lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nobody is spiking really lol. I'm obviously on the " I want a ton of snow" train. However, the euro ensembles slid south again, and hopefully that stops tonight. I know it'll snow lol, but just that 4 or 14 inches. Just trying to keep excitement I check for a few more runs You're in a very good spot. Reversal of the trend may happen but be careful what you wish for...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You're in a very good spot. Reversal of the trend may happen but be careful what you wish for...lol. True that lol, just gotta go with the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You're in a very good spot. Reversal of the trend may happen but be careful what you wish for...lol. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yep my bad Westerly, god it's hard to see , lol Westerly?? Thats crappp 6f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Westerly?? Thats crappp 6fNow you're giving massages in RI after being in NH skiing all day? Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wunderground. Where else can I view them? So negative omega is what I want? How can you tell if it is positive or negative - the colors are confusing. Usually only upward motion is plotted. I haven't seen the WU maps. Be careful for maps that show vertical velocity because a positive vertical velocity is upward motion. w = -ω Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wunderground. Where else can I view them? So negative omega is what I want? How can you tell if it is positive or negative - the colors are confusing. coolwx.com has omega plots. Negative omega is upward motion and positive omega is downward motion so obviously if we want precip you're looking for negative omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Andy impressive as the 850 inflow is its much more impressive that it's flowing into a pure Arctic airmass, that alone without looking at little Ls and their position on a map gives me confidence in a great WAA fluff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 coolwx.com has omega plots. Negative omega is upward motion and positive omega is downward motion so obviously if we want precip you're looking for negative omega. I just looked at WU...they have vertical velocity. So upward motion would be positive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I just looked at WU...they have vertical velocity. So upward motion would be positive there. but they also have the colors repeat on the negative side too. What I guess I was trying to determine is if you can see where potential subsidence will set up based on the current models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF plume mean for Boston is a little over 10". Couple clusters around 5" and 14" and a couple members above 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 but they also have the colors repeat on the negative side too. What I guess I was trying to determine is if you can see where potential subsidence will set up based on the current models. Their color scheme is a bit of a pain, but the whole color shading legend doesn't repeat. You can find where the uvm is 0ub/s and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yep my bad Westerly, god it's hard to see , lol No harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Their color scheme is a bit of a pain, but the whole color shading legend doesn't repeat. You can find where the uvm is 0ub/s and go from there. Cool thx for the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When looking at H7 how can you tell if the UVV is positive or negative because the colors repeat? Also, if it is negative is that an area of subsidence? Its always strong UVM/UVV over Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This too - very good snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Its always strong UVM/UVV over Tolland. S++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This too - very good snow growth There's a deep near isothermal layer in the max DGZ there, but you need to find where the best omega is. If it's H5-H7 then you'd be colder than the max DGZ there. I don't want to stray too far off into MET101 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This too - very good snow growth Good lord that's cold. And wet. And absolutely wonderful. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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