moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 7f @ attitash Lookin fwd to 0z runs. Deep deep winter here. How was your trip up? Man, it was hairy coming up the last 20 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'll add that the extreme solution verifying is usually rare...especially if it's at d4-5 and only 1 or 2 runs of a particular model. But I guess the public doesn't care as much as they used to in this age of "reality" TV They just want drama and something to talk about in social media at this range. I think most of the public won't hold a forecast against you unless it's a forecast bust inside 24hrs. I agree on your verification comment. I disagree though in that all these forecasts and hype by both weenies and yes some national news and weather outlets just leads to obfuscation. I can only impart to my viewers and followers my take on things. What i don't like is when my forecast is lumped in with the "others" esp if the others bust or are wrong or are initially too high then start to come down leading up to the event. Again no accountability on those who forecast recklessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i mean this in all sincerity. I would take 4 years of no snow if it meant he had lost the election. How much are you thinking for the region? I probably would avoid voting for hitler but would pull the lever for anyone else giving me snow probably....lol. 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol.. And I certainly didn't vote for Obama. Looks like a solid winter storm from border to border How many times have we been down this road the last few years? Euro and its Ensembles get locked. We clutch pearls and watch the woeful American guidance eventually catch on. Broken record that never gets fixed unfortunately, but I think that is going to change pretty soon. All hail Kevin, deep deep winter is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Considering the situation our healthcare and economy is in I'm confident I made the right choice!! But that's OT It's going to snow and probably a lot When you have to climb out of a 50ft hole with a stapler, thats a tough out. The world isnt so black and white. We are in a constant state of cause and affect, a ying and a yang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The dead zone ain't so dead tonight...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Let's steer clear of the political talk. Sometimes the talk about weather gets ppl here fired up more than politics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When you have to climb out of a 50ft hole with a stapler, thats a tough out. The world isnt so black and white. We are in a constant state of cause and affect, a ying and a yang. Wing and Wang you could argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How many times have we been down this road the last few years? Euro and its Ensembles get locked. We clutch pearls and watch the woeful American guidance eventually catch on. Broken record that never gets fixed unfortunately, but I think that is going to change pretty soon. All hail Kevin, deep deep winter is upon us. Well since the change to the EC this year it has lost a lot of its "god" like nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How many times have we been down this road the last few years? Euro and its Ensembles get locked. We clutch pearls and watch the woeful American guidance eventually catch on. Broken record that never gets fixed unfortunately, but I think that is going to change pretty soon. All hail Kevin, deep deep winter is upon us. All we can do is hope the Americans that program and make these models realize their errors and fix their ways so we can thrive like the Europeon guidance. I'm thinking 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well since the change to the EC this year it has lost a lot of its "god" like nature. To be sure--some kings are more powerful than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wing and Wang you could argue. Sure..but the end result is the same lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Great choice for days off for me. No work till Thursday. Lots of weenie time. The storm behaves and I get to call off work to add another day to my 4 day weekend. Going to go look at 850 sds on the GEFS to give you that midlevel answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You guys are absolute clowns. The EC guidance made a big shift south. LOL. It's not as you make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well since the change to the EC this year it has lost a lot of its "god" like nature. Yes, noted. This system will be a great test of the big 3. And professionals like yourself and all the other Pros here should show the community a nice post mortem if you have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How was your trip up? Man, it was hairy coming up the last 20 miles or so. New tires ftw, ya last 15 miles were slow. Mike u staying till when. Im here to wednesday or thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All we can do is hope the Americans that program and make these models realize their errors and fix their ways so we can thrive like the Europeon guidance. I'm thinking 8+ I'm going 4-6" right now for SNE....higher amounts out towards the Cape and near BOS. What's up with the Polly comment dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The storm behaves and I get to call off work to add another day to my 4 day weekend. Going to go look at 850 sds on the GEFS to give you that midlevel answer. PWAT anoms were very impressive with last nights 00z and this AMs 06z run. I didn't check the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes, noted. This system will be a great test of the big 3. And professionals like yourself and all the other Pros here should show the community a nice post mortem if you have a chance. If I have the chance I will. But forecasting with models isn't forecasting what they show. Its guidance you can take it or leave or use it how you will or want. Sometimes "on the surface" the GFS looks wrong or odd but if you dig deeper you'll come up with a better forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe if it the GFS was made by a private entity that actually had to answer to its stockholders, etc. But its made by a gov't bureaucracy and they can never scrap the thing and lose face like that. They will just endlessly "tweak' it. All we can do is hope the Americans that program and make these models realize their errors and fix their ways so we can thrive like the Europeon guidance.I'm thinking 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I agree on your verification comment. I disagree though in that all these forecasts and hype by both weenies and yes some national news and weather outlets just leads to obfuscation. I can only impart to my viewers and followers my take on things. What i don't like is when my forecast is lumped in with the "others" esp if the others bust or are wrong or are initially too high then start to come down leading up to the event. Again no accountability on those who forecast recklessly. Well I was sorta being tongue-in-cheek. I do think there is a social media population that prefers drama and hype like Kevin alludes to, but most viewers of the evening news do want a responsible forecast for preparation purposes. Trust me, I hate the Twitter nonsense from mets posting d5 weenie snow maps using algorithms that don't necessarily apply to the current situation. It's like nails on a chalkboard to me. At least most of the posters here know to take those posts/tweets as humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 New tires ftw, ya last 15 miles were slow. Mike u staying till when. Im here to wednesday or thursday We're heading back out tomorrow morning. How was Attitash? We were XC at Bear Notch--it looked like a big crowd there. Are you heading to Wildcat, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 But the GFS has fundamental flaws in how it handles east coast cyclogenesis and it does it over and over ...usually clueless in about the 72 hr to 144 hr period. The ECM is less god-like, but still better overall. Yes, noted. This system will be a great test of the big 3. And professionals like yourself and all the other Pros here should show the community a nice post mortem if you have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well dead zone is over. Srefs will be finished within 10 minutes. I'll then have time to walk to Trader joes to stock up on spirits, then back for the nam, Still hours away from anything reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 PWAT anoms were very impressive with last nights 00z and this AMs 06z run. I didn't check the 12z GEFS.18Z GEFS 850 inflow was 3.5 SDS above, your 250 was 2.5 (slow mover) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18Z GEFS 850 inflow was 3.5 SDS above, your 250 was 2.5 (slow mover) 250 2.5 easterly component or westerly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well dead zone is over. Srefs will be finished within 10 minutes. I'll then have time to walk to Trader joes to stock up on spirits, then back for the nam, Still hours away from anything reliable. They're out. Mean QPF a bit north of 15Z, but I'd rather trust guidance from a schizophrenic monkey than the d3 SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18Z GEFS 850 inflow was 3.5 SDS above, your 250 was 2.5 (slow mover) I thought I read that the H25 SDs were westerly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wouldn't be spiking any footballs yet, if the euro moves 50-75 miles south again tonight, I think that's cause for real concern. Pretty much need it to stop now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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