H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 For QPF queens: BOS is about 0.50" and so is the south shore and Cape/Islands. The rest of SNE is 0.25-0.50 with the 0.25 line making it up into NNE from BTV to AUG. How does the sharpness of the trough compare with the GFS and NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think this run is worse QPF-wise despite looking stronger at 5H...the trough is no doubt sharper, but the QPF queens won't be happy with this one. To state the obvious ... the Euro has been showing some continuity issues with this, overall. It's an extreme scenario with the speed of the flow balanced against handling the dynamics embedded, testing all models, even the chief. At this point, some kind of macro blend probably would suffice, then take that blend and tweek it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looked like a weenie .50" down around SFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 To state the obvious ... the Euro has been showing some continuity issues with this, overall. It's an extreme scenario with the speed of the flow balanced against handling the dynamics embedded, testing all models, even the chief. At this point, some kind of macro blend probably would suffice, then take that blend and tweek it. To keep the Billy Joel theme going tonight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PtSIJwXhqY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 To keep the Billy Joel theme going tonight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PtSIJwXhqY To keep the Billy Joel theme going tonight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PtSIJwXhqY I thought this was going to be the video for "I go to extremes" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow this party died on New Years haha. Awwwwww! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow this party died on New Years haha. Awwwwww! Euro buzz kill ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I thought this was going to be the video for "I go to extremes" Touche. That would've been a better fit actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow so everything looked better at H5, yet less precip. Either it is right, or it's quickly becoming something to wipe my behind with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks good at 500mb. Ray just tossed and turned in his slumber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We're getting a great storm. 2014 off to an excellent start. Tomorrow mesoscale models will be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks good at 500mb. Ray just tossed and turned in his slumber It has sucked lately. I don't have the faith I used to have in it, at least in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks good at 500mb. Ray just tossed and turned in his slumber Lol, there were a lot if positive changes in most guidance with the 00z suite. Euro hasn't been great, tough pattern. Well see what tomorrow's runs have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow so everything looked better at H5, yet less precip. Either it is right, or it's quickly becoming something to wipe my behind with. The outcome should have been better qpf wise, It was quite a bit better then 12z at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We're getting a great storm. 2014 off to an excellent start. Tomorrow mesons will be helpful. Technically you are right. 2014 is off to a good start. I have a feeling this storm is going to produce 12" in some spots and 4" in other close by areas. Mesos may be more useful within 24-36 hours to nail down the specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro blew. 24 hrs ago it had 12+. The upgrade screwed with it. 2-4 now on this run. It's not consistent like it use to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro blew. 24 hrs ago it had 12+. The upgrade screwed with it. 2-4 now on this run. It's not consistent like it use to Most all other guidance improved, has to make you wonder a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the NAM might be leading the way here. I think the NAM won with the weekend low. The Euro was underdone on qpf with that one also. When the NAM is gonna totally blow its usually with disorganization because it tries to be too precise. But here we have it showing the most impressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro was behind the curve 12/26/10. Maybe it's the time of year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I saw the RGEM qpf through only 0Z Friday and it seems to have more than what people say that the Euro has.... The outcome should have been better qpf wise, It was quite a bit better then 12z at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro was behind the curve 12/26/10. Maybe it's the time of year.... I think by 6z if the American models hold serve then we'll know if the euro is out to lunch (once again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I saw the RGEM qpf through only 0Z Friday and it seems to have more than what people say that the Euro has.... The Euro was pretty light on the qpf for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Blah with the Euro. Still happy to see the GFS move northwest and look better with the CCB. Overall a good night of runs I think but obviously the Euro was a bit discouraging. Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The euros cousin ukmet is more qpf prolific. The euro shortens the burst Thursday might to a few hrs without consideration of oes enhancement and other factors. Given the other guidance it may well be wrong. Ironically, verification is 500 ht departure from ground truth and it may do well there since you'd have to dig deeper to score qpf. For now euro is the qpf outlier but all models have improved on the setup. It's either scoring another coup or missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.