Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow, I just figured out who Kevin looks like. Billy Joel. Fascinating - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Folks-- Been lurking for a few years, but first post here.... but wanted to say both thank you and happy new year. The Thank You is mostly for providing some real empirical data (model runs) to show what the local mets are predicting. Nothing worse than a prediction with no logic behind it! The Happy New Year is ensuring you all have a nice cold drink in your hand... I sure do waiting for someone to post some Euro data Tom Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2014, another year of weather possibilities, happy new year fellow weather crazies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year to 2014 and All my Amazingly Intelligent and Funny Weather Friends!! And Thanks to Johnny Manziel for giving me an AMAZING Football Game to watch Right up until 30 seconds before the Ball Dropped so I didn't have to watch Any of the Pop Culture Bullcrap that is on TV for Umpteen Hours beforehand. Congrats to Him and Texas A&M! Now..... LET'S GO EURO!! LET'S GO EURO!! LET'S GO EURO!! 12z From Yesterday Again!! We want what the euro initially showed days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow, I just figured out who Kevin looks like. Billy Joel. Fascinating - You may be right, I may be a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 You may be right, I may be a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is how the new year should start - a monster storm on the horizon. Significant snow with great snow growth and extreme low temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow, I just figured out who Kevin looks like. Billy Joel. Fascinating -You may be wrong you maybe right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like the GFS and ECMWF models. I know, I know ... let's through hot-dogs at the GFS guy but, you'd be like those that ranked on Noah about his ark. Did a lot of good for them, eh? But I think a lot of people don't understand "how" the GFS is good. It sniffs out prospect events like...ridiculously early. Yeah, it loses them, and it is frustrating, and it is unacceptably a bad grade to do so, but the fact that it did -- and often prior to any other guidance -- is a bit of a deterministic asset when incorporating teleconnector modalities. Alright, forget the big words... If an early GFS run (like 13 days out) sees an event, and the teleconnectors are supporting it, I have noticed through the years that the event in question has a way of coming back. The Euro then nails it on a D5 chart and everyone either forgets the GFS ever had it and condemns the model to sucktitude, or don't see the light that there was value in there. The GGEM on the other hand is just spirals off into imagination like a loose fire hose. The GFS is like those literature classes you took in college. Its good at "foreshadowing" what's ahead in the novel, play, etc.Why thy heck am I taking this class? LMAO! I said the same thing about hydro/thermo theoretical meteorology too! Oh what a nasty web... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy new year from a long time lurker who doesn't post much but finds you all wildly entertaining and informative! Best of luck, health and snow growth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You may be right, I may be a weenie.OMG! LMAO! Good thing there isn't a male I have had the flu for the past five days. The coughing seizures subsided today until now. Remember what they say about pay back! happy new year to you your family and to everyone on AWX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can't compare 6 hour intervals so no 18z comparison...but 00z GEFS are way north of 12z run. Not that we didn't expect that based on trends, but just in case anyone was worried the ensembles wouldn't continue their march north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS is like those literature classes you took in college. Its good at "foreshadowing" what's ahead in the novel, play, etc. Why thy heck am I taking this class? LMAO! I said the same thing about hydro/thermo theoretical meteorology too! Oh what a nasty web... Perfect metaphor. Although, those dynamics courses are a metaphor for one word: PAIN The irony being that that pain actually allows us to detect when the greatest american novel is actually onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Perfect metaphor. Although, those dynamics courses are a metaphor for one word: PAIN The irony being that that pain actually allows us to detect when the greatest american novel is actually onto something. The pain was worse when they wanted one to construct a Skewt for Mars, Neptune or Uranus. :-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can't compare 6 hour intervals so no 18z comparison...but 00z GEFS are way north of 12z run. Not that we didn't expect that based on trends, but just in case anyone was worried the ensembles wouldn't continue their march north.It's a little north of 18Z, but doesn't look drastic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year everyone. 1000 people on the forums right now at midnight NYD. We are nerds. Happy New Year to Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy new year all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Since it's a new year, someone should make part 3. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can't compare 6 hour intervals so no 18z comparison...but 00z GEFS are way north of 12z run. Not that we didn't expect that based on trends, but just in case anyone was worried the ensembles wouldn't continue their march north. Benchmark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The pain was worse when they wanted one to construct a Skewt for Mars, Neptune or Uranus. :-0 Jesus, what Dickensian workhouse college did you go to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro is coming in more amped than 12z, but its not drastic through 42 hours. It should look better though for the final result once through 60-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Waiting on tenterhooks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z Euro looks better up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think this run is worse QPF-wise despite looking stronger at 5H...the trough is no doubt sharper, but the QPF queens won't be happy with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro looks good for S VT/NH with the overrunning. It's a bit of a mess otherwise though, but the trough at least is deeper...wish we could get more downstream ridging, but it's a really fast, compressed flow due to that PV lobe hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think this run is worse QPF-wise despite looking stronger at 5H...the trough is no doubt sharper, but the QPF queens won't be happy with this one. It's drier this run ugh. Only 2-4 from Phl-Bos on sv maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So, bad news? =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 For QPF queens: BOS is about 0.50" and so is the south shore and Cape/Islands. The rest of SNE is 0.25-0.50 with the 0.25 line making it up into NNE from BTV to AUG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So, bad news? =\ I actually liked the way it looked versus 12z if I didn't have QPF maps...like the old days on the ECMWF. But there's still some work to do to get solutions like the American guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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