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Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II


Typhoon Tip

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Is there a model you like?

 

I like the GFS and ECMWF models.  I know, I know ... let's through hot-dogs at the GFS guy but, you'd be like those that ranked on Noah about his ark.  Did a lot of good for them, eh?   

 

But I think a lot of people don't understand "how" the GFS is good.  It sniffs out prospect events like...ridiculously early.  Yeah, it loses them, and it is frustrating, and it is unacceptably a bad grade to do so, but the fact that it did -- and often prior to any other guidance -- is a bit of a deterministic asset when incorporating teleconnector modalities.  

 

Alright, forget the big words... If an early GFS run (like 13 days out) sees an event, and the teleconnectors are supporting it, I have noticed through the years that the event in question has a way of coming back.  The Euro then nails it on a D5 chart and everyone either forgets the GFS ever had it and condemns the model to sucktitude, or don't see the light that there was value in there.  

 

The GGEM on the other hand is just spirals off into imagination like a loose fire hose.  

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Folks--

 

Been lurking for a few years, but first (edit: apparently 2nd?) post here.... but wanted to say both thank you and happy new year.

 

The Thank You is mostly for providing some real empirical data (model runs) to show what the local mets are predicting.  Nothing worse than a prediction with no logic behind it! 

 

The Happy New Year is ensuring you all have a nice cold drink in your hand... I sure do waiting for someone to post some Euro data :)

 

Tom

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Happy New Year to 2014 and All my Amazingly Intelligent and Funny Weather Friends!!  

 

And Thanks to Johnny Manziel for giving me an AMAZING Football Game to watch Right up until 30 seconds before the Ball Dropped so I didn't have to watch Any of the Pop Culture Bullcrap that is on TV for Umpteen Hours beforehand.  Congrats to Him and Texas A&M!  

 

Now..... LET'S GO EURO!!  LET'S GO EURO!!  LET'S GO EURO!!  12z From Yesterday Again!!          

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