RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Absolutely, many of them have years of experience forecasting for SNE, and they are synthesizing all the data and their past experiences to present their current thinking. Many are leaning >8" based on their maps. That information is valuable to me, just like when they are bearish on an event. great. then watch tv and go to social media. that is what those avenues are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Great choice for days off for me. No work till Thursday. Lots of weenie time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 posting tv or social media mets snowfall amounts at this stage adds nothing to the discussion. just more garbage to sift through. I agree..potential is there for just about anything. Right now conservative is the way to go. Moderate confidence in a moderate snowfall. The factors look good overall for SNE. Good PVA, mid level circulation placements..etc. I like it.Agree totally Scott. I'm having fun dissecting the 18z GFS in Wingridds. Disagree, their thoughts are useful and often valuable. IMO its reckless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's interesting, because the TV Mets in Connecticut don't really seem to hype anything. A matter of fact, they seem pretty conservative, after-all. It is usually the anchors who will hype the headlines... "some big snow coming".. etc. But, I happen to think the Mets report responsibly and do a great job overall, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Help me out guys, still at work so I'm not able to check the models. Is everything trending south now? What happened to everyone being excited over the Euro/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Help me out guys, still at work so I'm not able to check the models. Is everything trending south now? What happened to everyone being excited over the Euro/GFS? There was a notable trend south, but still a good hit since most models have a very large precip shield well north of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 To put out snowfall maps in this situation is pointless, you are going to have to change it several times before the storm gets here. It is a waste of your God given energy. To me we should nail down the preferred track given guidance and with the disturbance in question not sampled yet given that its taking its sweet time making landfall, I would say 12z tomorrow runs will determine more than the 00z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's interesting, because the TV Mets in Connecticut don't really seem to hype anything. A matter of fact, they seem pretty conservative, after-all. It is usually the anchors who will hype the headlines... "some big snow coming".. etc. But, I happen to think the Mets report responsibly and do a great job overall, in my opinion.What I heard was a couple inches Thursday with the chance for a bigger storm Thursday night. Local mets about as conservative as you can play it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't like conservatism in wx. But just about every other aspect of life I do . Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't like conservatism in wx. But just about every other aspect of life I do . Interesting You'd probably be the guy to shout "fire!" in a movie theater. Its about being responsible. Just saying. Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't like conservatism in wx. But just about every other aspect of life I do . Interesting You're a salesman. I don't believe that for 1 second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Man I'd like to lock the 12z Euro solution for here. That's gotta be a total fluffbomb and I like how the 700mb low closes off to the SW and passes to our SE instead of right overhead. Givie me last night's EC..... Great choice for days off for me. No work till Thursday. Lots of weenie time. Same here----but I need to be judicious in my time with the family. I really like where you are and points south. I guess we might get some good snow out here, too. But the best times will really be to the east wrt heavy snow and wind. 14.6/6 at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You'd probably be the guy to shout "fire!" in a movie theater. Its about being responsible. Just saying. Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may. I'll add that the extreme solution verifying is usually rare...especially if it's at d4-5 and only 1 or 2 runs of a particular model. But I guess the public doesn't care as much as they used to in this age of "reality" TV They just want drama and something to talk about in social media at this range. I think most of the public won't hold a forecast against you unless it's a forecast bust inside 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You'd probably be the guy to shout "fire!" in a movie theater. Its about being responsible. Just saying. Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may. My brother in Concord just sent me a text that they (not sure who) was calling for 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't like conservatism in wx. But just about every other aspect of life I do . Interesting But would you call a met out if they swung for the fence and struck out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may. Don't post much (obviously) and I only lurk during the winter, but this is a great point. Mets that don't aire on the side of caution can literally start mass chaos (slightly overexaggerating) and then we go to buy groceries and there's no bread and milk..........it's all gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Givie me last night's EC..... Same here----but I need to be judicious in my time with the family. I really like where you are and points south. I guess we might get some good snow out here, too. But the best times will really be to the east wrt heavy snow and wind. 14.6/6 at the Pit. Our ratios should be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't like conservatism in wx. But just about every other aspect of life I do . Interesting A couple right hooks and a solid body blow. Smelling salts are in your nose.....get up, Rock get up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Givie me last night's EC..... Same here----but I need to be judicious in my time with the family. I really like where you are and points south. I guess we might get some good snow out here, too. But the best times will really be to the east wrt heavy snow and wind. 14.6/6 at the Pit. You would do better with the 12z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 A couple right hooks and a solid body blow. Smelling salts are in your nose.....get up, Rock get upLol.. And I certainly didn't vote for Obama. Looks like a solid winter storm from border to border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What I heard was a couple inches Thursday with the chance for a bigger storm Thursday night. Local mets about as conservative as you can play it at this point. Yeah that's what I went with today. No point in getting more worked up - we'll see what tomorrow's models bring and then we can crank up the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You would do better with the 12z I think. QPFology > meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol.. And I certainly didn't vote for Obama. Looks like a solid winter storm from border to border You're good at picking out the solution least likely to verify in elections and weather, apparently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Our ratios should be great. I think it's too soon to say that. There's a lot more at play wrt ratios than temp. At least we don't need to worry about mxiing. Did we end up with any flakes last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol.. And I certainly didn't vote for Obama. Looks like a solid winter storm from border to border Bet you won't vote for him in 2016! Would yu have if he guaranteed end to end snow every winter of his term and it was locked?...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 7f @ attitash Lookin fwd to 0z runs. Deep deep winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Let's steer clear of the political talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 QPFology > meteorology? It's amazing how some refuse to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You would do better with the 12z I think. In that case, I hope the 12z EC holds steady and does more of what it was doing. QPFology > meteorology? After yesterday, i no longer care about qpf. I'm all about ratios. Conclusion: 1:1 sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Overrunny nose event and coastal with arctic air, cherry ice cream smiles and children singing. Bang the drums,sound the trumpets,blast the horns. 1994?? Oops I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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