Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Regardless of 5H , do we have reason to think that lead low won't sort of screw the pooch..for a better event The lead system will exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 However much we get, the GFS still has the big rainer coming in on its heels ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is there any word on the UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 However much we get, the GFS still has the big rainer coming in on its heels ftl. Happy thoughts lol. Let's try to enjoy this one. It's going to be artic tundra like around here for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's what I went with at 11 along with 6-10" statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's what I went with at 11 along with 6-10" statewide.Not bad but if trend continues you will have to up totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Possibly, I think that's becoming reality for south and east areas. Trend is your friend right now though. Really hoping to cash in down here, you never know when your next snowfall may be in this area lol Well said... I am routinely pessimistic about decent snowfall down here a couple of days out from an event. Finally it appears we don't have to worry about boundary layer issues and should be NW of any coastal front development. I'm a bit concerned still about suppression with the strength of the Arctic dome. Storm is reminiscent of December 2009.....E CT, RI, SE Mass jackpot incoming..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not bad but if trend continues you will have to up totals. Yes, we know you think this is going to be 12"+ everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 To me its exactly what it did with the February system last winter and it kept doing it too til inside of 48 hours. Yeah, I saw your post earlier about that Feb deal and agreed, but with all the ado I didn't get a chance to respond. I remember that pretty vividly too, as well as in general with these fast flows. It's like the model sees the statically fast flow as a jet max (maybe) and combines that with its "okay, if I have to" convective parameterization and there we go ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's what I went with at 11 along with 6-10" statewide. Looks nice, good starting point and confidence is definitely increasing on those points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yes, we know you think this is going to be 12"+ everywhere.Lol. Just saying that it is solid right now. But 0z has shown that totals might need to be increased. You guys certainly know better than me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEM is drastically improved over its paltry 12z run...if we care about its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well said... I am routinely pessimistic about decent snowfall down here a couple of days out from an event. Finally it appears we don't have to worry about boundary layer issues and should be NW of any coastal front development. I'm a bit concerned still about suppression with the strength of the Arctic dome. Storm is reminiscent of December 2009.....E CT, RI, SE Mass jackpot incoming..... This cold is so extreme that you'd probably be okay on the east side of the boundary... Probably be like the difference between 20's something maybe a 30 here or there, compared to the single digits just west of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEM is drastically improved over its paltry 12z run...if we care about its solution. Not that you asked but I really don't. I hate the f model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 someone explain what the heck is a "convective feedback issue"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 someone explain what the heck is a "convective feedback issue"!CTBLIZZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEM is drastically improved over its paltry 12z run...if we care about its solution. Guidance is guidance. WGGB has 5-10" in western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This cold is so extreme that you'd probably be okay on the east side of the boundary... Probably be like the difference between 20's something maybe a 30 here or there, compared to the single digits just west of the boundary. I got sick of being on the 32.8 F paste /slop side of the boundary last year. Couldn't catch a break last winter. Even most of the Feb blizzard last year was above >32 F until the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is there any word on the UK? Decommissioned because of it's lemon-tart pucker solutions combined with the fact that they are arrogant enough to charge a fee for a product that sucks as bad as it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We just care about one global model really. Im also bangin some meso's as usual. Nice to see ryan get more bullish tonite after sayin "meh" this am. 6-10 statewide is a solid event , i wouldnt go much higher in ct, unless there is solid evidence of a closer consolidated coastal that is not screwed by energy going its early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 someone explain what the heck is a "convective feedback issue"!It was well described and discussed last night in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not that you asked but I really don't. I hate the f model!Is there a model you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Surprised KBOX still won't issue a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEM is drastically improved over its paltry 12z run...if we care about its solution. Forgot to look at the 12z. uK looking better too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is there a model you like?Giselle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 someone explain what the heck is a "convective feedback issue"! Can you please Google it? really...it's ad nauseam to stroke the keyboard for that at this point, it's been covered so in depth. There's plenty of literature that's easy to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Surprised KBOX still won't issue a map. At this point they might as well wait until the morning anyway. Those awake that aren't weenies are probably too drunk to remember what the graphic showed anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Are we reverting slowly back to a Euro bomb tamer version, seems so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well said... I am routinely pessimistic about decent snowfall down here a couple of days out from an event. Finally it appears we don't have to worry about boundary layer issues and should be NW of any coastal front development. I'm a bit concerned still about suppression with the strength of the Arctic dome. Storm is reminiscent of December 2009.....E CT, RI, SE Mass jackpot incoming..... Yeah, this area is tough. Usually there is always rain snow line issues, etc etc. this time that doesn't look to be an issue. At this stage I wouldn't worry about it being shunted south. All models are trending in our favor. I think half a foot at least will be good for this area, with potential for much more. Nothing is ever a lock obviously, but it looks good at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GiselleShe looks like a horse...Anyway pumped to see the Euro! Happy New Year! Enjoying some Founders Centennial IPA and Dirty Bastard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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