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Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II


Typhoon Tip

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Ya, its solid. Love the detailed graphics, it also keeps HAMMERING s shore of Bos.

I thought it may be out of its best range but im lookin fwd to seeing its changes more than nam.

Inside 36/more so 24 its pretty decent on qpf maybe not so much verbatim but in delineating max and min areas.
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gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

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gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

I think it's playing a part but also think as modeled there will be a wave out there stealing a lot of moisture. That's a battle this system has to fight.

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I think it's playing a part but also think as modeled there will be a wave out there stealing a lot of moisture. That's a battle this system has to fight.

 

Not necessarily...  Like I said, the NAM is a better theoretical fit.  Notice how much it backed off that seaward evacuation, too.  The better forcing is not out there. In fact, if you look at the vorticity panels, there is almost negligible DPVA there, but suddenly, the model has it plotted up through 54 hours -- that's how convective feedback works, and it might just be false ;)

 

It may be more apt to say, "That's a battle this MODEL has to fight"

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I still don't know who the qpf queens are

I know who one is, but others?

 

I've given up getting to wrapped up in events.  I'll follow and hope for good things.  But no reason to obsess with things--they'll do what they do.  So, I'm no longer too concerned about qpf.

 

That said, how much snow will GC get?  :)

 

Happy 2014 folks.  I for one will not be staying up for the EC.

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gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

 

gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

 

gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

 

 

To me its exactly what it did with the February system last winter and it kept doing it too til inside of 48 hours.

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