Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ya, its solid. Love the detailed graphics, it also keeps HAMMERING s shore of Bos. I thought it may be out of its best range but im lookin fwd to seeing its changes more than nam. Inside 36/more so 24 its pretty decent on qpf maybe not so much verbatim but in delineating max and min areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS was definitely another bump more robust with the cold conveyor stuff Thu night/early Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is. I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met. Even the NAM will be changing imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS was definitely another bump more robust with the cold conveyor stuff Thu night/early Fri. Yup./ Just waiting for the QPF Queens to come in and say that it didn't have much at all like 18Z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You know...if Kevin would just stick it out once and see this stuff now, he might be less annoying the next day. haha Well a New Year is starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS was definitely another bump more robust with the cold conveyor stuff Thu night/early Fri. Indeed - very nice sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is. I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met. Even the NAM will be changing imo. Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is. I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met. Even the NAM will be changing imo. I think it's playing a part but also think as modeled there will be a wave out there stealing a lot of moisture. That's a battle this system has to fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 -10s could be pretty widespread Saturday AM.Thinking close to -12/-15 for Albany; GFL 20-25 BELOW 25 below or colder dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think it's playing a part but also think as modeled there will be a wave out there stealing a lot of moisture. That's a battle this system has to fight. Not necessarily... Like I said, the NAM is a better theoretical fit. Notice how much it backed off that seaward evacuation, too. The better forcing is not out there. In fact, if you look at the vorticity panels, there is almost negligible DPVA there, but suddenly, the model has it plotted up through 54 hours -- that's how convective feedback works, and it might just be false It may be more apt to say, "That's a battle this MODEL has to fight" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well a New Year is starting Resolution time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ch 25 Bos Snow Map... Sorry, how much snow are you folks getting. I was distracted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still don't know who the qpf queens are I know who one is, but others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Would a fellow weenie do me a favor and post the map that Mike Wankom is running on channel 5? I'm lacking in the skills needed to pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow not that people would care but Maryland really gets the shaft with the dry slotting on the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yup./ Just waiting for the QPF Queens to come in and say that it didn't have much at all like 18Z lol. QPF is responding...as it should. As we get closer, the QPF will become more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry, how much snow are you folks getting. I was distracted. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You know...if Kevin would just stick it out once and see this stuff now, he might be less annoying the next day. hahaHappy New Year to you and your turtleneck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year to you and your turtleneck You too you and your glaring dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year to you and your turtleneck WOAH a Kevin siting at 11:15pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year to you and your turtleneck You're still awake? For that - you deserve a Happy New Year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Rev is Awake wow! Nyc crowd is banking on increase in 5H trend continuing, then paying dividends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Rev is Awake wow! Nyc crowd is banking on increase in 5H trend continuing, then paying dividends Seens like a widespread foot + for all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still don't know who the qpf queens are I know who one is, but others? I've given up getting to wrapped up in events. I'll follow and hope for good things. But no reason to obsess with things--they'll do what they do. So, I'm no longer too concerned about qpf. That said, how much snow will GC get? Happy 2014 folks. I for one will not be staying up for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is solid. Like the NAM it argues for blizzard conditions from BOS to the Cape for a time...with a solid foot too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's an odd thought ... I could almost see this low argument coalescing, and that void in the MA filling in and almost flipping the script, but it wouldn't be at our expense, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is solid. Like the NAM it argues for blizzard conditions from BOS to the Cape for a time...with a solid foot too I think foot plus for all areas could end up being reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is. I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met. Even the NAM will be changing imo. Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is. I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met. Even the NAM will be changing imo. Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is. I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met. Even the NAM will be changing imo. To me its exactly what it did with the February system last winter and it kept doing it too til inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think foot plus for all areas could end up being reality... Possibly, I think that's becoming reality for south and east areas. Trend is your friend right now though. Really hoping to cash in down here, you never know when your next snowfall may be in this area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Regardless of 5H , do we have reason to think that lead low won't sort of screw the pooch..for a better event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is solid. Like the NAM it argues for blizzard conditions from BOS to the Cape for a time...with a solid foot too I think foot plus for all areas could end up being reality... Shocked that you feel this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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