Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 May actually look better then what the end result will be qpf supports 1-3" in NE on Thursday on this run with much more in NY and maybe more on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol nam wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is the NAM playing catch-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is going to show a blizzard in the single digits for Thursday night/early Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is the NAM playing catch-up maybe or maybe not...it could be the lead to a 0z trend...we are closer in for the nam range. Or is the nam still useless at this point? As I said before the models could go back to the beast of a storm they originally showed. This happened a few years back as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Catskills get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I got 6 below here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol...I think we have a ways to go before we get near the final solution. Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I got 6 below here now Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is the NAM playing catch-up Yeah exactly Phil. I'm into this late but it's just the NAM coming onto the other solutions. I didn't realize how different they were. Smoke show for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Great run to run continuity......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I got 6 below here now Wow...15F here with about an inch of new snow this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Pretty comical run. E MA is under a raging blizzard early Fri morning with temps near 0F just W of BOS and even teens as far SE of PYM. Well, now we wait until the more reliale guidance comes out. RGEM will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Great. The NAM shows EVERYONE in the Whole country getting 0.5" of Precipitation now vs. just SNE except RI by 54H as we wait for the second part of the storm which is the main piece now. Then watch it only hit us quickly. Ugh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol...I think we have a ways to go before we get near the final solution. Enjoy the ride. Very true---we have yet to see p-type issues start popping up from the Cape through 495 and eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's a POWDAH KEG! depicting -15°C at 850 and dropping with the height still to come. Not to add credence to the NAM but this is the first run with "real data" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Very true---we have yet to see p-type issues start popping up from the Cape through 495 and eastern CT. Reasonably certain that ain't happening this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's a POWDAH KEG! depicting -15°C at 850 and dropping with the height still to come. Not to add credence to the NAM but this is the first run with "real data" Ahhhhh!!! No. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 A thing of beauty--love to all. Merry New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ahhhhh!!! No. Lol To what aspect Phil? I can answer that myself "data"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 To what aspect Phil? I can answer that myself "data"... Roosta Phil is right....the huge leap we saw this run was just the NAM coming to all the other guidance. Use the overlay tools on wunder etc.... no ground breaking stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Roosta Phil is right....the huge leap we saw this run was just the NAM coming to all the other guidance. Use the overlay tools on wunder etc.... no ground breaking stuff here. Well it overshot other guidance by tracking the vort as far west as it did...so its now the most amped. The problem is the NAM is so unreliable that we can't really say whether this run is useful at all...not until we see other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 CT dryslot reigns supreme once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Roosta Phil is right....the huge leap we saw this run was just the NAM coming to all the other guidance. Use the overlay tools on wunder etc.... no ground breaking stuff here. Caught it myself Scott. Just getting caught in my own personal hype. Somethings should be kept to self. LOL Can't wait to see the other models of the 00Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well it overshot other guidance by tracking the vort as far west as it did...so its now the most amped. The problem is the NAM is so unreliable that we can't really say whether this run is useful at all...not until we see other guidance. Well...as you said the GFS and Euro will be telling to see if this is in fact legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 In the 20 years I have been aware of and in use of the FRH grids, I have never seen such a combination of QPF and deeply depressed thermal fields. Mid 80's all the way up the column from ahole to appetite. Essentially .5" at 20+::1 in a 30kt sustained wind, with temperatures of 0 to 10F at pedestrian level. No words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hey it shows like 1.1" qpf here so I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 A thing of beauty--love to all. Merry New Year. ....*COUGH Cough cough..... MINUS Rhode Island. *Cough and some of CT. Are we REALLY Looking at RI Screw Zone #3 in 1 year!? This whole storm evolves over days with So many parts, All of which revolve around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In the 20 years I have been aware of and in use of the FRH grids, I have never seen such a combination of QPF and deeply depressed thermal fields. Mid 80's all the way up the column from ahole to appetite. Essentially .5" at 20+::1 in a 30kt sustained wind, with temperatures of 0 to 10F at pedestrian level. No words One aspect guidance agrees on is the severe cold that will accompany the snow Thursday night and Friday morning. Very rare to see steady snow (perhaps even heavy snow and blizzard conditions) with temps getting to 5F or even below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Boy. I just got a peak at the NAM. That track of the vortmax was quite tasty. The surface depiction wasn't as nice. But 500 ws nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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