Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Boy--really stupid question from me. What is the FGM?Fairy God Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Srefs have SNH close to 16"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is my entry into FB: SNOWSTORM IS GAME-ON. As most have heard. The ML 5H energy known as vorticity has been sampled and is stronger than earlier modeled. In response to this energy the height fields have sharpened to a deeper trough along the East Coast. The surface reflection will develop a storm (VA-DE) closer to the coast as it moves ENE along an Arctic boundary. There will be a tightening pressure gradient between... the "L" (storm) and the H to the north and west. A couple of things that are wildcards.1. very high ratios; snow to water content usually around our area it's 10:1 10" of snow to 1" liquid equivalent temps between 25° -35°F. Ratios for this storm will be 15-20:1.2. Coastal ocean enhancement snow (OES). Cape Ann down to CC canal and from 20-30 miles inland some locations will add 6" in spots dependent on where the banding sets-up.In short a good 12"+ region wide with the caveat described. OES will start in he early hours of Thursday morning. Widespread snow will develop by afternoon and some coastal locations will have Blizzard conditions overnight into early Friday morning. Models are increasing QPF with each passing run. BOS .75-1.00" Southshore 1.00-1.25" including CC.No mixing to rain, just to damn COLD. Mid teens start to finish. Lows F/S morning below zero with WC to -20°F. GAME-ON BABY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z sref mean is 18.05" with 1 weenie member 42.68"............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Srefs have SNH close to 16"... Yeah.......no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Boy--really stupid question from me. What is the FGM? Forrest Gump Model = NAM Digging further west with the s/w sliding down the frontside of the rockies. Someone else gets the cracker jack this run. Front end thump is getting skinnier by the run. (good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREF plumes average 10-15" snow across the region, Western zones get ratio enhancement to their .75" QPF (around 15:1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z sref mean is 18.05" with 1 weenie member 42.68"............lol 3 and a half feet of snow, sure why not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah.......no. Those 25:1 ratios oughta do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREFS have been far too juiced in almost every event up here this winter...I'm not sure what it is but there are always a slew of over-moist models, like the ARW family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Compared to the 12z the 0z run is amazingly different through 24-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 21z sref mean is 18.05" with 1 weenie member 42.68"............lol Forrest Gump Model = NAM Digging further west with the s/w sliding down the frontside of the rockies. Someone else gets the cracker jack this run. Front end thump is getting skinnier by the run. (good) Not necessarily..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guys...put the SREF plume totals away. They were spitting out 50-70" for some spots with the Feb blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guys...put the SREF plume totals away. They were spitting out 50-70" for some spots with the Feb blizz. ARW members FTL. They seem to make the plumes almost useless. Kind of miss the days of the old RSM/ETA combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 3 and a half feet of snow, sure why not lol Not happening though but weenie fodder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Scooter you look at 18z btv wrf for s. shore thru 1am fri Its lookin ready to give you 1.50 qpf extrapolated to 7am fri. 1.2 thru. 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ARW members FTL. They seem to make the plumes almost useless. Kind of miss the days of the old RSM/ETA combo. Yeah...we've talked about that before. It was nice having some meso members that weren't WRF based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREFS have been far too juiced in almost every event up here this winter...I'm not sure what it is but there are always a slew of over-moist models, like the ARW family. They have sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not happening though but weenie fodder Well naturally lol, obviously incredibly overdone. However, showing the ramping up theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guys...put the SREF plume totals away. They were spitting out 50-70" for some spots with the Feb blizz. ARW members FTL. They seem to make the plumes almost useless. Kind of miss the days of the old RSM/ETA combo. I do too. I think those old eta models were a nice counter balance for creating the mean. Now they are just all on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not necessarily..... Funny but nothing is off the table with this system. You're worried about QPF and I'm watching the potential for mixing or flipping down here. Major changes this run of the NAM. Defined system kicking off down off the GA coast...and a very impressive s/w complex coming through the MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Funny but nothing is off the table with this system. You're worried about QPF and I'm watching the potential for mixing or flipping down here. Major changes this run of the NAM. Defined system kicking off down off the GA coast...and a very impressive s/w complex coming through the MS Valley. Looks better at H5 then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks better at H5 then 18z This is going to be a wild solution. One problem is that the initial wave like so many other systems pushes the BZ with it, but we'll see what this big dog s/w does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ARW members FTL. They seem to make the plumes almost useless. Kind of miss the days of the old RSM/ETA combo. Yeah they've made the SREF QPF data useless...almost always skews the mean too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is holding back the main vortmax this run a bit to the west...I would think that this will lead to a more amped solution later in the run...whether it produces more QPF remains to be seen...there's multiple mechanisms going on and the initial wave could still try and escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is holding back the main vortmax this run a bit to the west...I would think that this will lead to a more amped solution later in the run...whether it produces more QPF remains to be seen...there's multiple mechanisms going on and the initial wave could still try and escape east. Some of the SREFs did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The overrunning went pretty far west...lost that snow on this NAM run to the ALB-BUF corridor. Very odd looking system in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is holding back the main vortmax this run a bit to the west...I would think that this will lead to a more amped solution later in the run...whether it produces more QPF remains to be seen...there's multiple mechanisms going on and the initial wave could still try and escape east. Pickles needs to get pedaling towards KY and OH. The Cape almost gets clipped by wave one pretty good. Be comical in a horrible way if we got two gutter balls after all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This will be interesting, lol. Low strengthening over the Apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 May actually look better then what the end result will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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