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Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II


Typhoon Tip

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Ill take the tot tubing. Awesome place is this hill off route 9 as you cross into orh and make a right up this road past an office park. Its about 840-850' at the top and has some nice long hills. Prob 100 foot worth of vertical.

that would be Green Hill Park...and just make sure you have a sturdy snow tube ;)

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Will, who would be the primary beneficiary of a NE flow and when do models generally back it NNE/N (best guess) ....does N shore benefit as much from NE flow

 

 

The east slopes still benefit, but it doesn't spill as far westward onto the spine...and you also don't see the corresponding valley shadow as extreme. NE MA is def good on NE flow too due to land convergence and same with the south shore which sticks out.

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Just got a look. I know everyone is all about WAA mood snows, but the key is Thursday night. The ensembles are really close to an awesome hit as low pressure refuses to move east all the while the circulation from the ENE increases aloft.

There's some big GEFS hits.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

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Not to go all Typhoon Tippy, but at 45 hours there's a QPF blob that looks awfully feedbackish off the coast...a weak reflection at 5h is obvious through and just after.  That's probably distorting the placement of the low somewhat so I would agree definitely going to see more focus on that system and probably an uptick in QPF.

 

So you're the one that reads my posts... huh

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I wouldn't be shocked if blizzard headlines were put up on the Cape at some point...esp if this main vort can bring the low closer...increased wind and heavy snow will make it an easy call there I would think if the trend continues. Heck even now, it might be close to 50/50...I'd just like to see the rates pick up to ensure 1/4 mile vis if I was contemplating a blizzard watch there. But its something that I wouldn't be surprised at.

 

Yeah I mentioned that/this too back on page ...I dunno 29 or whatever that verbatim the 18z NAM is probably close to that as it is...  

 

I really hope people (not you per se) are taking this seriously how dangerous that could be on Friday morning when combining wind/snow with the kind of -3SD cold that could very well get entangled into the circulation of this thing. Blizz or not ... that could push an otherwise moderate event pretty squarely into the major impact bracket imo

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