TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wankum ( part of Harvey's crew) said he may be upping totals. He has highest amounts in New Hampshire and Vermont, and 4-8 southeast ma. Not sure I agree with that at all, and why does he have a map out already. Eric fisher had a good discussion IMO. Bouchard wouldn't put out a map but thinks a foot plus is the number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Firehose system it seems potentially. Do we get that mid level inflow mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It probably won't even have to ramp up winds much to provide a good coastal flood threat.yeah difference between moderate and severe here. How many tide cycles will be key, don't want one of those situations where the low tide is unable to go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I can't see total QPF, but 18z looked a bit wetter vs 12z. What a QPF Queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wankum just said that he may have to up his amounts looking at the latest data... Saw that, think he's too low in southeast areas, and probably too high far northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 He's an interesting fellow. Every single air mass is always "moving over the top of us"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Bouchard was going with potential for 10-16" but who gets what is to be determined. Shooting high but not un-reasonable given the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Firehose system it seems potentially. Do we get that mid level inflow mets? oh how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Firehose system it seems potentially. Do we get that mid level inflow mets? Different beast. That was pure mid level easterly goodness for 800 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Harvey will start clearing the pretenders out of the way beginning tonight I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What a QPF Queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Bouchard was going with potential for 10-16" but who gets what is to be determined. Shooting high but not reasonable given the potential. It's best when he Poo-Poos it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Different beast. That was pure mid level easterly goodness for 800 miles. It does seem that we spend a good amt of time in the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wonder if Bouchard comes out tonight guns blazing with 12-24 inch amounts. Seems like he's itchin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 posting tv or social media mets snowfall amounts at this stage adds nothing to the discussion. just more garbage to sift through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It does seem that we spend a good amt of time in the ccb. Well recall that was an upper level low to the south that got caught and pulled west by a lobe of vorticity. It wasn't really a CCB per se like we think of from a developing coastal storm. It was an huge upgliding slug of precip moving east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It does seem that we spend a good amt of time in the ccb. yea. side note: don't know if we will hang onto the super long duration on the backside as previously modeled. seems like its overrunning then the main show....and that is plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well recall that was an upper level low to the south that got caught and pulled west by a lobe of vorticity. It wasn't really a CCB per se like we think of from a developing coastal storm. It was an huge upgliding slug of precip moving east to west. What a treat that was! This should be fun also with deep cold. I'm hoping the overrunning adds inches to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Will tonight models have a much better handle? Looks like that energy may be making landfall by then. I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What a treat that was! This should be fun also with deep cold. I'm hoping the overrunning adds inches to the totals. The factors look good overall for SNE. Good PVA, mid level circulation placements..etc. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm thinking tomorrow's 12Z runs are going to be honing in....maybe even tomorrow night 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 posting tv or social media mets snowfall amounts at this stage adds nothing to the discussion. just more garbage to sift through.Disagree, their thoughts are useful and often valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Disagree, their thoughts are useful and often valuable. their thoughts on amounts and snow maps 3 days out, is valuable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Man I'd like to lock the 12z Euro solution for here. That's gotta be a total fluffbomb and I like how the 700mb low closes off to the SW and passes to our SE instead of right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure exactly how accurate this is (and whether he was trying to dumb it down for the average viewer), but Pete B said something to the effect of "there are some models showing this storm slips too far SE out to sea, but there's no way that's happening since we don't have a split jet stream" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It probably won't be until 00z tomorrow night until we really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 their thoughts on amounts and snow maps 3 days out, is valuable? This dialogue is much more useful, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The one renegade GFS ensemble member who was refusing to have any semblance of a system finally caved on the 18Z run...still has a major miss overall but it does now have a deep low well SE of MA and LI, before this it barely had anything out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DAY 3......CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VLY INTO OH VALLEY AND NRN MID-ATL/SRNNEW ENGLAND...AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH RATHER LARGE MODELSPREAD MAKES THURS A RATHER UNCERTAIN FCST FROM THE THE CENTRALPLAINS/MID MS VLY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSORTMENT OFPOLAR/ARCTIC STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS DIVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OFTHE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY TO INDUCE AWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE... WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ARKLATEX ANDPRESS EAST INTO THE ERN TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE DOWN ALONG THE GULFCOAST/GULF OF MEXICO... THE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH WILL KEEP THE BULKOF THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE. SOMEOF THIS MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH BACK TO THEAMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FOR A COMBINATION OF A BROAD OVERRUNNINGREGIME FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND ANDA POSSIBLE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM KSINTO MO/NRN AR INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AS MENTIONED... THEGUIDANCE SHOWS TREMENDOUS SPREAD ON THE POSSIBLE AMPLIFICATION ANDPROGRESSION OF THE POLAR/ARCTIC JETS AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTUREAVAILABILITY. WPC PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS MEAN AT THISPOINT... THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET OFFER A MORE AGGRESSIVEAND IMPACTING HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.MUSHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 their thoughts on amounts and snow maps 3 days out, is valuable? Absolutely, many of them have years of experience forecasting for SNE, and they are synthesizing all the data and their past experiences to present their current thinking. Many are leaning >8" based on their maps. That information is valuable to me, just like when they are bearish on an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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