CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm liking 18Z. Great hit for you and Scooter! I like that idea more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice mid-level fronto stripe along the MA/NH border too. What about the other 90% of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18z GFS looks better for eastern mass, worse for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What about the other 90% of SNE? Looks the worst in CT. Better signals along Rt 2 corridor in Mass and eastern Mass... and especially Boston/South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 wow...18z GFS is pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 wow...18z GFS is pretty potent. Yeah that's probably blizzard conditions GHG to PVC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It wouldn't take much at all for more areas to get into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Qpf though 72 BOS to PVD including coastal north shore cape ann to canal.: 0.75 Just east of canal eastward: 1.00 0.5 widespread nearly everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 10-16 for eastern mass on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS is hideous for most of CT... like 1/3" liquid. Ginx gets about 1/2" though. I honestly think that's a reasonable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah that's probably blizzard conditions GHG to PVC lol yeah looks that way without digging too deep into the run. it gets a hair mild at the surface during midday thursday so might get a little gloppy before the good stuff comes in...kinda hope not. not interested in power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah that's probably blizzard conditions GHG to PVC lol Good for them. Tough start to the season down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's really good looking PVA and vortmax track on 18z GFs...if that continues, I'd expect to see the ground truth ramp up even more on future runs over the next 12-24 hours. Esp for eastern areas. Its already pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Should we still not be focusing on qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow map jacks scooter with 10+. 8+ inside 128 in ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good for them. Tough start to the season down that way. I envision a weenie stripe from you to SNH of softly following yet easily piled up fluff. It's almost like two different mechanisms with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Qpf though 72 BOS to PVD including coastal north shore cape ann to canal.: 0.75 Just east of canal eastward: 1.00 0.5 widespread nearly everyone else. I'll take a 10" fluff job. Could be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 10-16 for eastern mass on the 18z GFS what ratios did you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now qpf should be followed? is this the time frame where we forecast solely on qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Edit: PVC to Wellfleet 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 what ratios did you use? 10-11:1 and OES for the SS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's really good looking PVA and vortmax track on 18z GFs...if that continues, I'd expect to see the ground truth ramp up even more on future runs over the next 12-24 hours. Esp for eastern areas. Its already pretty solid. Was it sharper than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 -27 850's in western maine.. cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I envision a weenie stripe from you to SNH of softly following yet easily piled up fluff. It's almost like two different mechanisms with this. Yea, I'm going 8-12" of relatively low impact snow, owed to the light weight, dearth of traffic and long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now qpf should be followed? is this the time frame where we forecast solely on qpf? With the temp profiles aloft what else would you look at? Orographics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's really good looking PVA and vortmax track on 18z GFs...if that continues, I'd expect to see the ground truth ramp up even more on future runs over the next 12-24 hours. Esp for eastern areas. Its already pretty solid. Not to go all Typhoon Tippy, but at 45 hours there's a QPF blob that looks awfully feedbackish off the coast...a weak reflection at 5h is obvious through and just after. That's probably distorting the placement of the low somewhat so I would agree definitely going to see more focus on that system and probably an uptick in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now qpf should be followed? is this the time frame where we forecast solely on qpf? People are describing the 18z GFS...it doesn't mean its a forecast unless they specifically say something like "this solution looks reasonable and I think high end advisory or low end warning snows is a good bet for X area"...otherwise saying "it shows 10" in BOS" is fine to describe the model using QPF. I personally think we are not quite done trending the vortmax/trough deal for Thu PM/night yet...so we'll see what 00z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now qpf should be followed? is this the time frame where we forecast solely on qpf? No one is solely focusing on QPF - the forcing is disjointed as we've been mentioning. Not all storms have to put CT in the jackpot... compared to the rest of SNE we are in the worst spot. Not sure why that's hard to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 someone on the s. shore, se mass area it's going to get 12-14" I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow map jacks scooter with 10+. 8+ inside 128 in ma. Congrats, guys. I'll take my .5 and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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