Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM can show whatever it wants at this range. Let's see what the GFS does. My eye is on that upstream kicker. If that is slowed in anyway it should allow for the trough to dig more. May even pull off a slight more neg tilt and delay things a hair. Thinking positively here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What are the thoughts for Northern Berkshire County, MA? I think a good early number for North Adams is 4-8". The orographically favored areas to the east around Florida and Savoy may reach a foot though. However, this storm is still evolving and the main question is how much of the southern stream moisture gets involved. Right now, I think this will mostly effect E MA and we get most of the lighter overrunning snows associated with the northern stream. One fear I have is if the secondary really gets cranking along the coast a bit too far to the SE of us is that a lot of the lighter overrunning snows around here dry up and we get sucker holed. I've seen this many times around here with Miller B developments along the coastline in response to a consolidating precipitation shield where they really start dumping and we dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam with 10-12 ORH eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 My eye is on that upstream kicker. If that is slowed in anyway it should allow for the trough to dig more. May even pull off a slight more neg tilt and delay things a hair. Thinking positively here. The S Coast already is pushing dryslot/ptype issues on this run. Don't get too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Are we outta the loop on this one? maybe fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol....you get 12. Eh...12" seems a little aggressive for interior S NH on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lock in the nam solution for here lol. Rpm looks good for over a foot here, bit reliable though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RPM says congrats to Ryan and the entire CT River Valley..12-16 lol.. Enjoy Interesting orographic effects showing up on there as usually the worst of the shadow zone is a tad further west than the RPM shows there. It also looks like it thinks the Berkshires and Worcester are 4K+ or something as the orographic couplets are usually not that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam with 10-12 ORH eastward. Extend that 30 miles sw of ORH and we have a deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam qpf: 1.00: bos to PVD including north shore. 1.25: canal eastward. 0.75: ginxy to SE NH to BHB and east 0.5: Just abut everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And for those thinking this isn't a gradient pattern, it's in the upper 40s in DC today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam qpf: 1.00: bos to PVD including north shore. 1.25: canal eastward. 0.75: ginxy to dendrite to BHB and east 0.5: Just abut everyone else. 0.75 barely tickles SE NH. Looks like a little over 0.50" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't find it odd that the NAM is doing this.. I'm starting to think a lot of users are learning disabled -- been hammering the data sampling issue and that it was relaying onshore during the day. Then, post come out like it's a big shocker? why bother educating... Now watch it be wrong anyway, HA John are you being serious or sarcastic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0.75 barely tickles SE NH. Looks like a little over 0.50" up here. I have it in the 2 SE counties and I justo looked....con is further west so my bad. I will edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've been out on this storm telling people to expect a Compact total of 3" by Saturday and no more really. Now the NAM which I KNEW was going to be awesome from 6H onwards and was, puts 10"-15" back on the map. Ugh. It's still a bad old 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've been out on this storm telling people to expect a Compact total of 3" by Saturday and no more really. Now the NAM which I KNEW was going to be awesome from 6H onwards and was, puts 10"-15" back on the map. Ugh. It's still a bad old 18z NAM. What is a compact total? Do your non wx friends have any idea?....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hopefully this begins a trend of a stronger storm going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 John are you being serious or sarcastic?yeah. I refrained from replying to that one. The neurotic one in the other thread too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't find it odd that the NAM is doing this.. I'm starting to think a lot of users are learning disabled -- been hammering the data sampling issue and that it was relaying onshore during the day. Then, post come out like it's a big shocker? why bother educating... Now watch it be wrong anyway, HA The NAM sucks all the time John, it has nothing to do with sampling. It won't be reliable until the event is 6 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've been out on this storm telling people to expect a Compact total of 3" by Saturday and no more really. Now the NAM which I KNEW was going to be awesome from 6H onwards and was, puts 10"-15" back on the map. Ugh. It's still a bad old 18z NAM. Don't discount the perpetual RI dryslot, that's on all the models too. Lock up your accordians in advance, we don't want any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 OKX just hoisted WSW for S CT. Congrats Joe and Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 STATUS OF THE STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER - MONITORING Good Afternoon, For This Afternoon: There is a 40% chance for some snow showers or snow squalls later this afternoon as a weak clipper system moves across our area bringing in colder air. These showers or squalls may coat local some roads with a dusting to a ½” coating of dry snow during the light evening commute between 4:00 – 8:00 PM. The overall impact of any light snow is expected to be minor. Forecast confidence is increasing that a moderate winter storm will impact our area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday night and into Friday morning. The following forecast is based on the latest information: Wednesday Night: Light snow developing around midnight and continuing overnight with around an inch of accumulation by daybreak. Lows in the upper teens to low 20’s. Thursday: Light snow during the day may be moderate at times. Highs in the mid 20’s with a general 1 – 3” accumulation during the day. The impact on both the morning and afternoon rush hours is expected to be minor in most areas with a moderate impact in a few towns. Towns can expect a few inches of dry snow on most roads during the day. Thursday Night: A period of moderate to occasionally heavy snow and fairly strong winds are expected from Thursday evening through pre-daybreak Friday morning. During this time snowfall rates may approach 1” per hour at times with low visibilities, some blowing of snow and a moderate impact on overnight travel. Temperatures will also be quite cold overnight with lows near +10 F and wind chills ranging from -10 F to 0. Total overnight snowfall of 4 – 7” is expected. Friday Morning: Snow ending from West to East between 6:00 – 10:00 AM. The impact on the morning rush hour is expected to be minor to moderate with snow cover on most roads, light snow falling and some blowing of the dry snow across roads. Highs on Friday are only expected to reach the teens with wind chills ranging from -10 to +10 F during the day. Total snowfall for the storm is forecast to range from 6 – 10” statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 John are you being serious or sarcastic? Ha ha ha -- nah just clownin' I was just being reminded of the cold storms of the 1700... Friday could be freakish outside. -21C gets all the way down to FIT by 18z... But during the morning, it's brutal looking with lingering snow, fairly high wind, and severely depressed wind chill. It seems we could push a light to moderate snow event into a high impact threshold when combining these other factors. As far as the other stuff, in all seriousness I believe the Euro will likely be more consolidated and impacting on the 00z run ... and quite possibly the 18z GFS here in a few. I think the contention is not so much data sparseness, but the "assimilation" routines that are culpable. I was reading about the Euro's 4-D variable system and it's fascinating how it has these correction schemes for smoothing out noise. The GFS cluster does not avail of that system. It would be meaningless if it did, anyway, because the GFS grid is too coarse to avail of those schemes. I recall an experiment I read about 3 years ago, where they took the ECMWF initialization and fed it to the GFS, and it improved immediately in a single run/reanalysis. Anyway, if the GFS assimilations create randomness, it could be why there are noticeable differences in system handling upon coming on shore. Same with the NAM (maybe). I dunno, but I am looking at a 60 hour NAM trough structure and amplitude on the 18z, and it is significantly different enough compared to the 66 hour 12z that SOMEthing has to account for the increased amplitude (and no, I am not part of the NAM-auto-sucks group, though I agree it's has fewer stellar moments). I mean, voriticity advection improved dramatically, and there are hints of more s/w ridging rippling out ahead.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM sucks all the time John, it has nothing to do with sampling. It won't be reliable until the event is 6 hours away. I know -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam with 10-12 ORH eastward. I'm wondering how much of that is OES enhancing. That is some seriously brutal arctic air transport over the ocean as it curves out of that air mass up N and returns W without having substantive time to moderate. There's going to be a lot of moisture/parcel explosions coming off that water and I could see this thing being striped on rad moving NE while OES bands are moving WSW in streets. Might be interesting snow type combos with dendrite growth regions being different -- or how does that work? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Weve moved away a bit from a 24hr+ event. Some guidance has it inside 24hrs now. Edit: Really depends on overrunning, and thats usually tough to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Weve moved away a bit from a 24hr+ event. Some guidance has it inside 24hrs now. it starts around midnite tomorrow and it's stil snowing into friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it starts around midnite tomorrow and it's stil snowing into friday It will be over I your area by dawn Friday and here mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it starts around midnite tomorrow and it's stil snowing into friday Depends on where the stalled frontal boundry sets up for the overunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 WSW for southern CT -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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