N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z btv wrf thru thurs 7pm blast e ma as well as greens and tug hill . Decent hit thru most of sne cept s ct/ri coast . More to come after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The limiting factor will be snow intensity I think...but the fluffy nature shouldmake it easy to get 1/4 mile in even moderate snow. There's a decent shot at verifying "old" blizzard criteria that also required temperatures to be less than 20F along with the 1/4 mile and 35mph winds. yeah i would think with blowing snow it might get close. certainly wouldn't be hoisting the blizzard warnings or anything like that, but i'd bet it gets close for a time along the shore. the wind will be there and this stuff will be horizontal. it happens "frequently" in the sense of getting an hourly ob here and there. it's getting 3 or more hours that becomes the really hard part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 2-4" for BTV with generous ratios on the high end I think. Look at the btv 12z meso. Looks like .3 to.4 for btv thru 7pm thurs, more s and se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah that second shortwave is modeled too far to the northeast already, its still in British Columbia, Canada. Also there is a shortwave energy that is spilling into the southern stream from the WA, OR, CA region that is moving south, southeastward, digging further than anticipated. That's what I see on water vapor imagery, not what I want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not enthused about this storm to be honest - starting to think it could be quite meh for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And I believe the old criteria was for at least 3 hours. I think the new criteria is still 3 consecutive hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look at the btv 12z meso. Looks like .3 to.4 for btv thru 7pm thurs, more s and se The eastern slopes of the Greens would be more favored I would think in this scenario, and if the .3-.4 verified that would be more of a 4-6 or even 4-8 range with solid ratios. It could be a sharp cutoff on the northern end I think so I will remain very cautious as we are threading a needle to some degree. We will see about shadowing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would think 12 inches is a very solid possibility in favored areas of the South Shore even with a Euro QPF distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not enthused about this storm to be honest - starting to think it could be quite meh for many. You mean in your area? Or your not enthused about this storm as a whole for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think the new criteria is still 3 consecutive hours. You are correct that is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not enthused about this storm to be honest - starting to think it could be quite meh for many. Im thinkin ne mass is set up pretty decently in this for a 6 inch or greater, long duration snowfall , in ct i don't have that confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not enthused about this storm to be honest - starting to think it could be quite meh for many. Brad Field @BradNBCCT 7m Still in line for a significant snowstorm in the late Wednesday night through Friday morning timeframe; wind, bitter cold too #FirstAlertCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would think 12 inches is a very solid possibility in favored areas of the South Shore even with a Euro QPF distribution Maybe, if everything works out and we continue to see small improvements in coming runs. Regardless, I think it will be really wintry obviously, not sure about a foot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like a powder bomb incoming, batten down the hatches and seal all the door cracks, don't want tiny arctic flakes blasting in to your dwellings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Im thinkin ne mass is set up pretty decently in this for a 6 inch or greater, long duration snowfall , in ct i don't have that confidence E MA and CT are in different camps for this...E MA certainly is looking more robust given the ocean enhancement and also some latitude for the overrunning stuff. I do think the conveyor stuff may start coming in a little better in the final 48 hours here though and even CT will do fine...just as long as people aren't expecting a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would think 12 inches is a very solid possibility in favored areas of the South Shore even with a Euro QPF distribution yeah i could see that. but figuring out where that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Brad Field @BradNBCCT 7m Still in line for a significant snowstorm in the late Wednesday night through Friday morning timeframe; wind, bitter cold too #FirstAlertCT That's the chief Met at Ryan's station. Hopefully he's on this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe, if everything works out and we continue to see small improvements in coming runs. Regardless, I think it will be really wintry obviously, not sure about a foot though If I had to make a call right now, I would go 7-11 inside 128 and the immediate south shore, with the higher totals in OE favored areas like South Weymouth, Abington, Scituate and GHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm wondering if the term significant is being tossed around too liberally here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm wondering if the term significant is being tossed around too liberally here. Why not? The media claims everything as extreme nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I always viewed significant as 8+. Unless its spread out over days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 E MA and CT are in different camps for this...E MA certainly is looking more robust given the ocean enhancement and also some latitude for the overrunning stuff. I do think the conveyor stuff may start coming in a little better in the final 48 hours here though and even CT will do fine...just as long as people aren't expecting a blockbuster. My concern back this way is missing out on the Thursday day stuff and playing catchup on Thursday night as the snow fills back in. I think this does look better for the Pike and better still for eastern mass with ocean enhancement. I'm going to roll with 6-10 for the early shows this evening but right now I'm leaning toward 3-6 or 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why not? The media claims everything as extreme nowadays. #1 question on Friday after the snow stops? "Is this a rare event?" or "is this normal for this time of year?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm wondering if the term significant is being tossed around too liberally here. Well a certain someone is finding every tweet with the word in it. I'm not sure of what to make of significant snowstorms that only have moderate impacts, lol. But hype isn't hype unless there's a word in there that gets people to go "oh my gosh we better panic!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If I had to make a call right now, I would go 7-11 inside 128 and the immediate south shore, with the higher totals in OE favored areas like South Weymouth, Abington, Scituate and GHG Not unreasonable by any stretch. As every year this is probably one of the couple times where you want to be in eastern and southeast ma area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can see southern Rhode Island being a snowhole (again) with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 #1 question on Friday after the snow stops? "Is this a rare event?" or "is this normal for this time of year?" No. A storm could be significant, but not rare. Rare = Historic / Epic Signicant = large snowstorm greater than 8+ inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can see southern Rhode Island being a snowhole (again) with this event. I could too. I feel like I may right on the edge of it..but hoping some OES reaches this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Dt just wrote on fb that the euro has not been good with east coast storms and warm fronts since the upgrade. Goes on to say that they messed with it, but obv still the best and better then gfs. There has been a few a event down here that is has busted on, more the usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can see southern Rhode Island being a snowhole (again) with this event. stop it. nooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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