forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is pretty nice looking synoptically for SNE Thu night...esp eastern MA/RI. I think that could produce pretty well despite the QPF queens not happy with 0.50-0.60" totals.the trof is deeper than 0z. there's still a little time for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is pretty nice looking synoptically for SNE Thu night...esp eastern MA/RI. I think that could produce pretty well despite the QPF queens not happy with 0.50-0.60" totals. Even if the QPF is accurate, 8-10" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the trof is deeper than 0z. there's still a little time for improvementI'd like to see the downstream ridging a little better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That happened several weeks ago. For the first time in several winters we can't be nearly as "sure" of the solutions it provides in the 36-84 hour range. The only time that I can really remember it being wrong and we ended up with a BETTER soloution was Jan 11, 2011. Usually when it blows it, it goes big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Game on folks Eric Fisher @ericfisher1m 12z ECMWF comes in w/same theme I've been discussing. Significant snow totals, moderate impact, very cold, not historic. phew!! thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Man, can't believe those solutions the euro was showing a few runs ago. Pretty big shift, and not even in clown range, big middle range shifts. My call. 3-6 isolated 8 to the south and east as well. Spread out, it's not really even a moderate impact event, just more of annoyance. Crews will probably be out for a long time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 there could be a decent stripe of snow - maybe 3 to 5" stuff - from MA up into NH/VT during the day on thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 phew!! thanks for posting.Can you recommend which type of broom works best to clear 8" of snow? I'm sick of shoveling. A nice moderate storm (5-10") seems to be in the cards and with everyone going back to school and work, there'll be some moderate impact too. Very wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How far north for .25" line in NH? North of Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 there could be a decent stripe of snow - maybe 3 to 5" stuff - from MA up into NH/VT during the day on thursday. I've been focusing on this mainly. The initial overrunning is only now being looked at. That's our snow IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks for the broom post too. That really helped us all understand!! Calm your B-cups, ladies, before the bone-chilling temperatures on Friday night do it for you. We're here to have a lovely time. Now. Let's have a guessing contest on flake size. I'm guessing they'll be size 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow that just blows off the road when you drive never really causing major issues. Perfect to me, blowing and drifting, ice cold. What's not to love. Happy New Year guys and gals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I've been focusing on this mainly. The initial overrunning is only now being looked at. That's our snow IMHO. We're on the southern edge of the "safe zone" for that initial stripe as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The only time that I can really remember it being wrong and we ended up with a BETTER soloution was Jan 11, 2011. Usually when it blows it, it goes big. A long time ago, but it shat the bed on 12/9/05 and 2/11/06 that '05-'06 winter...both times it showed a weaker SE solution (the Feb '06 even being a glorified scraper) and it was wrong. It has its misses, but it wins like 70% of the time...which is why we always await it's solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 euro qpf looks like .4" BDL, .5" ORH, .6" BOS, .7" HYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 euro qpf looks like .4" BDL, .5" ORH, .6" BOS, .7" HYA SO 7" verbatim 10:1 ratios Phil for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SO 7" verbatim 10:1 ratios Phil for us? Yes. I'm not Phil but I do know that0.7x10=7 every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes. I'm not Phil but I do know that0.7x10=7 every day of the week. i kept typing douchy answers so decided not to post. yes, james on that run that's what it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For BTV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I guess I set myself up for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 A long time ago, but it shat the bed on 12/9/05 and 2/11/06 that '05-'06 winter...both times it showed a weaker SE solution (the Feb '06 even being a glorified scraper) and it was wrong. It has its misses, but it wins like 70% of the time...which is why we always await it's solutions. Well, I was referring to my time on the board. We were actually citing 12/9/05 as a reason why it would be underdone on 1/11/11. Go meso with small, compact events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 James , nice event shaping up for u man! Hope it ticks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 James , nice event shaping up for u man! Hope it ticks better I hope it ticks better too....my way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 2-4" for BTV with generous ratios on the high end I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm thinking the first shot will maybe get more muted in later runs in favor of the trailer. I think we can probably cancel the mad rush at grocery stores and lead evening news stories for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'd think if trends hold, E MA shore from BOS to the Cape and probably the islands has a period of near blizzard conditions...from a strict criteria perspective...sometime after 6z Thu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That trailing shortwave means business, we need the models to further resolve this to get a more accurate picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'd think if trends hold, E MA shore from BOS to the Cape and probably the islands has a period of near blizzard conditions...from a strict criteria perspective...sometime after 6z Thu The limiting factor will be snow intensity I think...but the fluffy nature shouldmake it easy to get 1/4 mile in even moderate snow. There's a decent shot at verifying "old" blizzard criteria that also required temperatures to be less than 20F along with the 1/4 mile and 35mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The limiting factor will be snow intensity I think...but the fluffy nature shouldmake it easy to get 1/4 mile in even moderate snow. There's a decent shot at verifying "old" blizzard criteria that also required temperatures to be less than 20F along with the 1/4 mile and 35mph winds. And I believe the old criteria was for at least 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We're on the southern edge of the "safe zone" for that initial stripe as far as I'm concerned. Yeah these always go way north and NNE people are always surprised. Hopefully not too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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