Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tip, we did reference that. It looks funny for sure. I like how as the parent low exists..it gives birth to a new one west of it. It also should be noted that the parent low was a shift SW from 12z. So perhaps in the stages of correcting? Yeah, just saw that - haha. sorry. Ya, for sho, tru dhat, diz beyotch be f'shizzel on our nizzle's yo! Time to ges mine and bust a cap in duh runs azzz It could be correcting. I think the problem is data assimilation frankly. The impulse(s) is/are up in data dearth city, so the models is reconstructing the input grids insufficiently.. What that science-fiction means is that "IF" a stronger dynamic aloft curls around the base of the trough it will force a deeper low where it should be, and that actually reverses the robbing. Suddenly, that seaward solution evaporates if/when that happens. Very complicated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Correcting towards what? A continued trend south? To a more consolidated low and not two crappy ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Correcting towards what? A continued trend south? Closer to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kiddies may have an extra long vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kiddies may have an extra long vacation Quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Why does a new thread need to be started when one gets too long? You can skip to the last page...its not like it creates less posts..just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Why does a new thread need to be started when one gets too long? You can skip to the last page...its not like it creates less posts..just curious load on the server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We had some offices bite hard on the 00z Euro. I personally want no part of snow totals at this range. A place like 1P1 could just as easily have 4" as 14" at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I just watched Eric Fisher. He seems good. Won't state amounts but talked of the potential. Good analysis IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We had some offices bite hard on the 00z Euro. I personally want no part of snow totals at this range. A place like 1P1 could just as easily have 4" as 14" at this juncture. Yeah me either - I guess I'm just conservative with that stuff. I see some TV folks in SNE have maps up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Steve ... toss the run. It's wrong.yeah and it was wrong last year for the same reasons, not comparing but I think warning level snows evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I just watched Eric Fisher. He seems good. Won't state amounts but talked of the potential. Good analysis IMHO. I'm a fan of talking about the potential, dynamics in place, but leaving it at 6" or more is possible. Just as many people will stick around to hear about totals later as will read your Twitter account for weenie snow maps. Or at least I like to believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the 18z gfs is just noise. it still has the same ideas as the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wouldnt get too worked up over a 18z gfs run outside of 66hrs. It hardly ever gets phase jobs down and it usually craps out to the SE with some wierd looking qpf blobs. I think the gfs has done a fairly decent job sniffing out the overall look of a nyc to bos storm but its going to struggle bringing the pieces together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the 18z gfs is just noise. it still has the same ideas as the euroyep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** TIME TO THINK ABOUT THE B-WORD FOR NEW ENGLAND***Folks ...if the 12z monday european model is correct ,.. and it almost always is at the time frame.. the New England and NYC and N NJ ... it is time to think about the ***B word **THIS IMAGE shows the MIN temp JAN 3 ... -4 in WORCESTER MASS .... +4 at hartford 14 at NYC 8 at Newburghthe map on the RIGHT shows WINDS on JAN 3 at 1000 feet up... the winds at over 75 mph ... the general rule is you 90% of that and you bring it down to the ground ... possible winds to 60 mph POSSIBLE 45 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 *** TIME TO THINK ABOUT THE B-WORD FOR NEW ENGLAND***Folks ...if the 12z monday european model is correct ,.. and it almost always is at the time frame.. the New England and NYC and N NJ ... it is time to think about the ***B word ** T...See More 45 Well that may be overselling it a little bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OT but what a weenie run from init to 384 on the gfs op....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 OT but what a weenie run from init to 384 on the gfs op....lol. Yeah. Pretty appealing. SR next week FTW (even though I don't ski) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18Z GEFS mean looks similar to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I can't see total QPF, but 18z looked a bit wetter vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
segv Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm pretty new to reading weather maps and, as an academic exercise, I'm trying to make sense of 12/18z GFS. My basic understanding is that increasing vorticity is an indication of confluence and lift. Looking at the 18z GFS 500mb heights/vorticity 72 hour panel, I see a vorticity maximum over northern Mississippi but somehow the surface low ends up off the coast of North Carolina. Am I wrong to assume that the upper level low should be somewhere in the neighborhood of the vorticity max and the surface low should be somewhere to the southeast of this? My highly uneducated guess would be that the surface low should be somewhere over southeast Alabama I’m trying to sort out how this all works, so any feedback would be much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GEFS qpf looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can't undersell this, a new moon current with 15-25 ft seas. If this ramps up winds its a major coastal flooding issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yup. Flooding issues big time if winds crank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can't undersell this, a new moon current with 15-25 ft seas. If this ramps up winds its a major coastal flooding issue. It probably won't even have to ramp up winds much to provide a good coastal flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wankum just said that he may have to up his amounts looking at the latest data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wankum just said that he may have to up his amounts looking at the latest data... He's an interesting fellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kevin Lamanowicz gave rpm vs gfs vs euro....all pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 as stated, 18z gefs looked great to me. some really amped up members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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