CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looked like near 0.5" from LWM SSE to CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 8 in mass stations other than MVY andACK which have 6 8 in northern ct, 6 southern 8 in southern nh including con 6 up to dryslot and most of the southern half of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ggem is putrid With over running, secondary or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 With over running, secondary or both As a model. But even it hints the oes potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 this run of the RPM (not sure how dated) has an epic snowhole over eastern MA for nearly the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 this run of the RPM (not sure how dated) has an epic snowhole over eastern MA for nearly the entire event RI has had an epic bad luck streak so it doesn't surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RI has had an epic bad luck streak so it doesn't surprise me just found this...this is what it results in obviously just one run and still far our, but it's picking up on the overrunning going too far N, and then the secondary is an inverted trof, while Emass smokes subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wasn't here for the last event to see how the GGEM and RGEM did, but in the borderline snows earlier in the year I thought it did better than most of the other models down here. I'm surprised by all the GGEM hating. I don't think any solution is off the table especially those that involve even less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Whoever developed these probability ideas made it far more confusing than it needs to be. Just put one map out with what your forecast isprobability is a no fail way of forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ukie is a really nice hit. Gets the trough sharpened enough to get some cold conveyor snows going after a good deal of overrunning. Its the type of solution that is probably most realistic for getting some areas over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wasn't here for the last event to see how the GGEM and RGEM did, but in the borderline snows earlier in the year I thought it did better than most of the other models down here. I'm surprised by all the GGEM hating. I don't think any solution is off the table especially those that involve even less snow. The RGEM has been remarkable but thats inside 36 hours, the GGEM I thought has been bad beyond 48 and good inside 48...I've noticed the GGEM as I posted earlier overplays its hand given where most guidance is, if we're looking at a close in closed off system its west of everything, if we have a less phased system its always the most progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 just found this...this is what it results in obviously just one run and still far our, but it's picking up on the overrunning going too far N, and then the secondary is an inverted trof, while Emass smokes subsidence the prior run had PVD with 8.6" and 10+ on cape so I take that with a huge grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 8 in mass stations other than MVY andACK which have 6 8 in northern ct, 6 southern 8 in southern nh including con 6 up to dryslot and most of the southern half of Maine. hey Jerry - what do 1/2/4/6/8 mean. I just ran them for various locations. For Instance, I see ORH has a 6 for hr 72 and an 8 for hr 96. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If Andy is around...he should be onto that. Ukie is a really nice hit. Gets the trough sharpened enough to get some cold conveyor snows going after a good deal of overrunning. Its the type of solution that is probably most realistic for getting some areas over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hey Jerry - what do 1/2/4/6/8 mean. I just ran them for various locations. For Instance, I see ORH has a 6 for hr 72 and an 8 for hr 96. Thanks! 1 means 1-2" of snow in that 6 hour period 2 means 2-4" 4 means 4-6" 6 means 6-8" 8 means 8"+ so a 6 and an 8 in back to back 6 hour periods would theoretically mean 6-8" followed by 8"+....obviously a big snow total. I don't thjink I'd bite on that type of total at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 1 means 1-2" of snow in that 6 hour period 2 means 2-4" 4 means 4-6" 6 means 6-8" 8 means 8"+ so a 6 and an 8 in back to back 6 hour periods would theoretically mean 6-8" followed by 8"+....obviously a big snow total. I don't thjink I'd bite on that type of total at this point though. Thanks Will - much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 1 means 1-2" of snow in that 6 hour period 2 means 2-4" 4 means 4-6" 6 means 6-8" 8 means 8"+ so a 6 and an 8 in back to back 6 hour periods would theoretically mean 6-8" followed by 8"+....obviously a big snow total. I don't thjink I'd bite on that type of total at this point though. How are those big snow numbers coming off the GFS which has like .75 LE at ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Please do not take those RPM runs verbatim this far out. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 probability is a no fail way of forecasting I think sometimes the public thinks we're afraid to fail. If that's the case then we're in the wrong business, because it's a given. Probabilities are a way to convey uncertainty, and no forecast is certain. This event looks like a high probability for a widespread moderate event. There is a higher probability for more snow on the South Shore where there will be ocean enhancement. I could say exact inches for all of SNE, but we already know somebody will get subsidence or a sucker hole dry slot screw job. You can't accurately predict those at this range, so probabilities are a better, more skillful way to depict it. I also don't think people understand that a range is a probability based forecast. Saying 8-12" for BOS is just as probabilistic as saying a 70% or greater chance of 8+, but saying 9" for BOS is deterministic. Really tough to show exact inches on a forecast map though because you'd never be able to see surrounding towns or what the gradient is between major towns/cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How are those big snow numbers coming off the GFS which has like .75 LE at ORH? It doesn't use just the model qpf. It uses other sets of parameters as well such as the BL flow, ML flow, temps, etc. It also has some "memory" of climo in there which will help it forecast based on past events with similar model parameters. It is one way that MOS can be useful...however you have to be careful as it can still be fooled at times. Particularly during marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That dry slot has a chance to really ruin someone's day. The last clipper system dry slotted southeast ma and Rhode Island. It's modeled there right now, and as we've seen if usually doesn't end up there, let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How are those big snow numbers coming off the GFS which has like .75 LE at ORH? It's just statistically produced from what the model has for hard numbers for specific variables at different levels. 8+ at ORH isn't that extreme for 0.75" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's just statistically produced from what the model has for hard numbers for specific variables at different levels. 8+ at ORH isn't that extreme for 0.75" QPF.Esp with 20:1 or greater ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Esp with 20:1 or greater ratios ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think sometimes the public thinks we're afraid to fail. If that's the case then we're in the wrong business, because it's a given. Probabilities are a way to convey uncertainty, and no forecast is certain. This event looks like a high probability for a widespread moderate event. There is a higher probability for more snow on the South Shore where there will be ocean enhancement. I could say exact inches for all of SNE, but we already know somebody will get subsidence or a sucker hole dry slot screw job. You can't accurately predict those at this range, so probabilities are a better, more skillful way to depict it. I also don't think people understand that a range is a probability based forecast. Saying 8-12" for BOS is just as probabilistic as saying a 70% or greater chance of 8+, but saying 9" for BOS is deterministic. Really tough to show exact inches on a forecast map though because you'd never be able to see surrounding towns or what the gradient is between major towns/cities. Good luck getting the GP to understand that. This certainly has been an entertaining read this morning, I don't know why folks want to separate threads, can you not scroll, skip and read? Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ? 2m temps near 0F so the chart says to go 40:1 to 50:1. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 anyone have the 12z GFS ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Esp with 20:1 or greater ratios Pump the brakes a little? 20:1 is awfully rare for an event in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 2m temps near 0F so the chart says to go 40:1 to 50:1. Go big or go home.speaking of that, anyone else think 2M temps are overdone? I have seen lots of crazy low numbers put out, trying to figure out why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pump the brakes a little? 20:1 is awfully rare for an event in SNE. In his defense we did a 30-1 day in December already, Boston is probably not a spot being on the water you would get high ratios too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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