Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow, nice look at 500mb at 60+ hours on the GFS. Nice potential there. Good looking system, hopefully this is the beginning of the handoff to the "2nd" part of the system on the models. (<-- think this is where this is going) Ray hates it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the gfs has me backing away from the cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 most models have about 2-5" by 7 pm on thursday.. maybe a lull in some areas before ramping up again. You wonder if most places see like a 2-4 type deal during the day Thursday and then it's just light snows until the main deal starts Thursday night into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Makes you think the actual coastal should perhaps spin up further west, but then the Euro went and joined the GFS camp so who knows. We can't just blindly say 'oh it's GFS feedback issues' ..... GFS would bring the WAA snows up...first surface low develops off the Carolinas but largely misses...then we wait for whatever else the atmosphere can stir up. I know that absolutely this isn't the same exact situation again, but it seems like we've had this happen a couple of times with these first systems robbing the best upper support that comes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah it really tries after 06z. Soundings are looking pretty good for OES enhancement too as the BL lines up decently from about 40-60 degrees with those 900mb temps in the -10C to -14C range...that looks really solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 most models have about 2-5" by 7 pm on thursday.. maybe a lull in some areas before ramping up again. The first round is gonna be just pure arctic fluff..Like Fake LES or upslope snow It'll pile up very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Inverted trough kinda look on the GFS? Yeah but you have such a potent piece of energy at the base of the trough that it develops that finger of a surface low. A more potent version of an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Soundings are looking pretty good for OES enhancement too as the BL lines up decently from about 40-60 degrees with those 900mb temps in the -10C to -14C range...that looks really solid. GFS Bufkit soundings have a pretty solid 200-500 J/kg for BOS throughout the event really. Of course by Friday morning we're talking flow really only being favorable for the Cape. But before that, South Shore looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the gfs has me backing away from the cliff Yeah same here. I'm liking the decrease in QPF each model run (at least for my area). Keep that beast out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 First call: 5-9'' over a 24 hour period. Probably going to be a lot of compaction with the measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Check out what CNN posted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS Bufkit soundings have a pretty solid 200-500 J/kg for BOS throughout the event really. Of course by Friday morning we're talking flow really only being favorable for the Cape. But before that, South Shore looks good. Yeah I joked about that yesterday. Not bad having CAPE in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Phil asked me to post this Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN15m Signals thus far still support general 6-12" snow for Southern NewEng Wed night->Fri AM. Hope to get more specific soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 pretty good example of why you don't toss out snowfall maps 4-5 days out. and don't tweet 40" maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray hates it. lol Well, I'm working and just looked up to see a post from a creditable met saying that the GFS was an inverted trough. Don't have time to sort through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 will be nice when AWIPS II is released from unidata and the poor non-nws folks can get a hold itYou'd be better off getting GEMPAK installed than holding your breath for AWIPS II which has seen its share of delays. Of course you're still on your own to find freebie data sources to make either software package work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it appears we've kind of honed in on start time..Seems like it starts after midnite in Ct and by 4:00am the entire region of SNE is snowing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You'd be better off getting GEMPAK installed than holding your breath for AWIPS II which has seen its share of delays. Of course you're still on your own to find freebie data sources to make either software package work. OT discussion. sorry. sounded like AWIPS II would be sometime in 2014. i'm in no rush. you can tap right into the unidata servers, i thought. anyway. nice maps posted earlier by Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it appears we've kind of honed in on start time..Seems like it starts after midnite in Ct ( N of BDL) and by 4:00am the entire region of SNE is snowing nicely. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ggem is putrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ggem is putridworse than 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ggem is putrid As a model, this solution, or both. I actually know the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ggem is putrid Yes, the model is putrid. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes, the model is putrid. LOL. lol. and so was that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I find it odd that the GEM is always way west and warm in a scenario where we have a dead on hit up and down the coast by all the models and whenever we have a situation like this where its iffy and we're getting various run to run swings its always very progressive and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lol. and so was that run. Sizeable shift north, but ugly DS into parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice oes signal on the models. Check out the hi res stuff......nice signal indeed which may considerably enhance amounts for the shore areas and Boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sizeable shift north, but ugly DS into parts of SNE. I could see a snowhole over SE CT and S RI. God they have to be the worst place for snow in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I find it odd that the GEM is always way west and warm in a scenario where we have a dead on hit up and down the coast by all the models and whenever we have a situation like this where its iffy and we're getting various run to run swings its always very progressive and flat.i remember it being all over the place with every big event we've had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Big snow numbers on gfs fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.