Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12Z suite will ramp-up stakes. NAM (1) model down....17 others to go Safe bet 8-12" at 80 % probability regionally. Inclusive of SNE greater chances eastern areas. Many people cop an emotional investment with no chance of a payback. Whippy ding-dong! You're way more aggressive than I would be at this stage. Too many moving parts and there's still a battle pending on this being mainly a front ender or back ender vs this long drawn out deal with large pieces of both. The NAM smacks of rays least favorite deals where we have a punch of snow then agonizingly discuss where ML centers may be forming while we watch disorganized bands of oes try to develop as the sun peaks through the clouds Hoping for "better" solutions from the others the nam is terrible at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I like actual hard data..black and white..lines clearly drawn in sand. Not grey areas or hedging or wishy washy..be confident or get out the game You are going to be severely disappointed with the future of forecasting then. As things currently stand (NWS forecasts at least) you have very little idea of forecast uncertainty. There are days where 90 degrees for a high at BDL is high confidence and days where it is low confidence, but you wouldn't know that from the point and click. WFOs are already moving towards probabilistic products for QPF (and thus ice and snowfall). I know you've seen those from BOX. Ensembles are probabilistic forecast tools. WPC uses probabilities for QPF, snowfall, and ice. SPC uses them for severe weather. Hurricane track forecasting is probabilistic. The more deterministic you become the more you run the risk of leaving people unprepared for the eventual outcome. You will overwarn the people who bust "negative" but underwarn those who bust "positive." You can be black and white when you are nowcasting the near term, you have to be gray beyond that because there are no atmospheric certainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS it's part of the discussion and another angle to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's talking about the NAM. I could care less what it shows..just stating it.I don't get why people can't discuss a model run unless it's all positives for snow and cold. All people are doing is talking about it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What a toaster bath on the NAM... I was a little worried about this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't get why one person can't discuss a model run unless it's all positives for snow and cold. All people are going is talking about it verbatim.Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't get why people can't discuss a model run unless it's all positives for snow and cold. All people are going is talking about it verbatim. Because that's what weenies do. Only go cold and snow and then when a discussion is talking about a solution not great for their backyard...destroy the discussion with voodoo logic and incorrect assumptions. It's an amazing and yet disturbing view into their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's always been there. You just never know where it will end up. Now that we are a day or 2 away I see no reason to not discuss it. There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS There may have been no talk about it...but the potential has always been there. Just because it wasn't showing up on every run or impacting your BY doesn't mean there weren't some flags. Even 2 days ago the Euro was showing potential for banding to set up around the pike with drier air filtering into S CT. But 4 days out is a bit too far out to get worked up over those kind of details. Now we're 2 days out and we've got a meso model depicting that scenario...so it warrants some watching. Hopefully other models show NAM is out to lunch...but a dry slot is not a new idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't get why people can't discuss a model run unless it's all positives for snow and cold. All people are doing is talking about it verbatim. But there is the exact problem. It's fine to discuss it..but because it's discussed there are now posters who think that it's going to happen..when the chance is very very slim..Discuss it..but also add that it's not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There may have been no talk about it...but the potential has always been there. Just because it wasn't showing up on every run or impacting your BY doesn't mean there weren't some flags. Even 2 days ago the Euro was showing potential for banding to set up around the pike with drier air filtering into S CT. But 4 days out is a bit too far out to get worked up over those kind of details. Now we're 2 days out and we've got a meso model depicting that scenario...so it warrants some watching. Hopefully other models show NAM is out to lunch...but a dry slot is not a new idea. I'm not sure I would even call it a dry slot, all it really is is a screw zone because the surface low never gets going...the northern stuff is obviously WAA induced and we'd normally have the southern areas then get blasted by the surface low later, but for whatever reason that darn surface low don't wanna go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Because that's what weenies do. Only go cold and snow and then when a discussion is talking about a solution not great for their backyard...destroy the discussion with voodoo logic and incorrect assumptions. It's an amazing and yet disturbing view into their minds. lol is the hi-res NAM usable at this range? has the dryslot also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 OceanSt gave a good thing to look at. Those spurious lows and random vortmaxes that sometimes happen with feedback...something like that to me is a red flag. Generally speaking it's mostly a problem between the mountains (Rockies and Apps). You also see it with Deep South convection and maybe a little bit off the coast on the Gulf Stream. There's also a seasonal aspect (more common in the warm season when we get a lot of convection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Alright well the NAM already has had more disco then it should..lol. It did come back west with the meat of the precip compared to 6z. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 But there is the exact problem. It's fine to discuss it..but because it's discussed there are now posters who think that it's going to happen..when the chance is very very slim..Discuss it..but also add that it's not likely most posters in here don't believe that, or at least the ones that read post by the Mets in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it's the anti-QPF Queen. I didn't think that the traditional rules applied since this is so disjointed, otheriwse, I wouldn't have minded being on the outskirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 FYI I am also suspicious of all the WAA snows because to me 700mb looks like crap and notice how the GFS/Euro really are not quite as gung ho on the overrunning snows as the NAM is....if it were 24-36 hours out I'd feel more confident the NAM's idea at least north of 42N was right but I even worry about that idea being hogwash rightt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not sure I would even call it a dry slot, all it really is is a screw zone because the surface low never gets going...the northern stuff is obviously WAA induced and we'd normally have the southern areas then get blasted by the surface low later, but for whatever reason that darn surface low don't wanna go. One of the worries I have. I'd like to see the 12z runs show something more well-defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not sure I would even call it a dry slot, all it really is is a screw zone because the surface low never gets going...the northern stuff is obviously WAA induced and we'd normally have the southern areas then get blasted by the surface low later, but for whatever reason that darn surface low don't wanna go. Similar to what's happened 1-2 other times this winter. Things get shoved way offshore by the first pulse leaving the main energy less to work with. Not saying it's going to happen but it's viable sans blocking and has happened very recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 One of the worries I have. I'd like to see the 12z runs show something more well-defined. I still say the better models these days make these types of events worse....the multiple vorts, or perhaps what the models see as multiple vorts or lead vorts are screwing the whole deal up, what I'm afraid of is that when they finally resolve it there is going to be some sort of major shift, either 200 miles north or south and we're gonna get another last second catastrophe either in the good or bad direction, depening on what side of the snow fence you're on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I though it was a mess all around. 700mb RH looks iffy for a time. Something I'd like to see better definition with. Nasty dryslot with the overrunning and developing slp. FYI I am also suspicious of all the WAA snows because to me 700mb looks like crap and notice how the GFS/Euro really are not quite as gung ho on the overrunning snows as the NAM is....if it were 24-36 hours out I'd feel more confident the NAM's idea at least north of 42N was right but I even worry about that idea being hogwash rightt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 OT but I think all forecasts (not just weather related ones) should be probabalistic in nature. Deterministic forecasting results in a lot of wrong forecasts. This is why folks who forecast the weather get such a bad reputation -- with very little understanding of dynamical systems or the probabalistic nature of models, the forecast expects the weather person to be "right" not recognizing that there is a range of correct solutions. I'm not sure that the probabalistic forecasts would correct this, but at least it goes back to "Hey, look, I said there was a 3/5 chance I was wrong with this." It's not about hedging your bets, but about being intellectually honest with oneself about one's own abilities and the limitations of the modeling (and the mathematics) behind how our atmosphere works. There's a great book that talks about this at length by Nate Silver, the guy who predicted all of the states in 08 and 12 for the presidential election and almost all of the senate elections. It's called The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some don't. Might be worth a read for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RGEM not really helping matters, cannot really tell where it would go beyond 48...it does possible pull some of the CT posters off the ledge though, seems it has the dry slot more SW of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What a toaster bath on the NAM... I was a little worried about this happening.For ct and w ri perhaps1" kissin cape Ann sounds find to me. Thats prob 15-20" verbatim for them. And 10-14 for 128 700rh seems like a red flag for many folks Scooter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I mean the WAA. That is what's driving the snows further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's at 850mb. Well there too. I just did not like the whole look of the NAM. Garbage SLP, garbage 850mb, garbage 700mb. I'm just point out what I see. Would I take the run seriously, no, just discussing it. Some get all bent out of shape though when you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 accuweather going big time with their snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wow, I just got to work and read like 60 posts on a NAM dryslot. Don't worry for the worriers...you can hug the 18z NAM when it shows 8 tenths of L.E. on overrunning. Hopefully the GFS continues its 06z theme of amping up the main secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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