mattb65 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM has a giant QPF donut around NYC and a toaster bath for much of CT. Looks solid for eastern areas and SNH/ S VT. Seems north of previous runs and a bit more tucked in but mid levels are kind of weird and don't have deep saturation plus there's a giant dry slot around NYC and up to CT. Definitely something to keep an eye on for future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Scott gotcha. Ncep at one time had a paper on convective feedback with particular examples. Most of the time when I hear the term tossed the criteria isn't close to met. But I'm sure it all plays a part I just think most of the time it's a diminishing part/problem. Often when we see these long drawn out solutions it's the models way of a compromise solution pending a movement towards one of the extremes. iE multi day storms seem to be the new inverted troughs OceanSt gave a good thing to look at. Those spurious lows and random vortmaxes that sometimes happen with feedback...something like that to me is a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM looks better all around I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM looks better all around I think. yeah not a huge shift but still better, as you said most models will likely tick north or west today maybe getting close to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would caution Ray through SNH to respect the overrunning. You almost could argue it might be best there. I would not sell it short, As seen in the past, Does not have the glamor of a wrapped up system, But can more then get the job done and the bottom line is ending up with accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That said, it is a mess at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yeah not a huge shift but still better, as you said most models will likely tick north or west today maybe getting close to a solution. Well I don't think I said likely, I said it would not surprise me. I'm not sold on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 IMO it's far more likely that there were gaps or errors at init than propagated data errors caused by feedback. We can see every run the changes at even 24 hours are dramatic vs the previous runs. That has zero to do with coastal convective feedback at 72 hours but is immediate and traceable. That won't stop someone from saying it was feedback that caused the wobbles but it's an overused term and doesn't fit the old standard definition of there being an associated mega qpf hotspot that spins up spurious mL features. Those still happen but at a much lower frequency than earlier model versions. Model error does not equal convective feedback all the time. I'm not saying feedback kept it from producing a bomb...and I'm not smart enough to know if there was or wasn't feedback and if there was, if it played a role in the strung out prog. Just throwing it out there that the GFS has a bad history with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That said, it is a mess at the surface. Verbatim it's kind of meh for many particularly ct/NYC etc. I fear these drawn out events that go poof as models adapt to the front punch having all the gusto. Would love this solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well I don't think I said likely, I said it would not surprise me. I'm not sold on that. oh OK, I find that when you post something here you are confident in it, so figure you felt pretty good about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would caution Ray through SNH to respect the overrunning. You almost could argue it might be best there. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lol, per NAM, the screw zone is slowly creeping into SNE, while NNE gets the overrunning and the synoptic snows still shoot too far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why? Mid level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 HRR and RAp deliver some nice snow bursts this afternoon ..esp over western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lots of wintry appeal north of the Pike that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12Z suite will ramp-up stakes. NAM (1) model down....17 others to go Safe bet 8-12" at 80 % probability regionally. Inclusive of SNE greater chances eastern areas. Many people cop an emotional investment with no chance of a payback. Whippy ding-dong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That said, it is a mess at the surface. I though it was a mess all around. 700mb RH looks iffy for a time. Something I'd like to see better definition with. Nasty dryslot with the overrunning and developing slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I love how there was no talk of any dryslots..just non stop snows..and then 1 run of the NAm comes out and suddenly the talk turns to everyone from ORH south being screwed. God do I hate that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The best WAA at 850 is north of the pike which is why the NAM is showing that. Some models have hinted at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mid level frontogenesis. it's the anti-QPF Queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I love how there was no talk of any dryslots..just non stop snows..and then 1 run of the NAm comes out and suddenly the talk turns to everyone from ORH south being screwed. God do I hate that model It's always been there. You just never know where it will end up. Now that we are a day or 2 away I see no reason to not discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I love how there was no talk of any dryslots..just non stop snows..and then 1 run of the NAm comes out and suddenly the talk turns to everyone from ORH south being screwed. God do I hate that model It's talking about the NAM. I could care less what it shows..just stating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I love how there was no talk of any dryslots..just non stop snows..and then 1 run of the NAm comes out and suddenly the talk turns to everyone from ORH south being screwed. God do I hate that model Flavor of the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still is. Yup so no use in getting our weenie hopes up for anything until that changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's always been there. You just never know where it will end up. Now that we are a day or 2 away I see no reason to not discuss it. There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS I think the take away was that the low was a little more tucked in - a trend we hope to see continue with the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's been modeled, just much further south than this run of the NAM has it. There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I approve of the overrunning. I don't need no stinkin' coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS 06Z GFS ensembles had some members with the dryslot, but it was located further to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There was no model showing it..and there wasn't anyone talking about until it showed up on the NAM..Until we see other models showing it..it's just the NAM pulling usual BS 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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