CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually the energy I'm talking about is near 55N: 150W. To be honest I haven't looked. The real differences were occurring east of the Rockies where the s/w's in question were differing in strength and speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS looks better..a little more consolidated, but faster too. You can tell it wants to form a low near WAL..but a weenie convective low sort of messes it up. Could be feedback, but also real as well. Yeah...I thought the same thing. As always, it's baby steps with this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well no offense to anyone, but I'm all set being in the jackpot 4 days out. Good luck holding that. Yes it's a weenie comment, but true about 85% of the time. There are reasons why. confused...you want to be in the jackpot 4 days out or don't want to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS is going to be a funky evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 To be honest I haven't looked. The real differences were occurring east of the Rockies where the s/w's in question were differing in strength and speed. True that's true, but if it ends up stronger than modeled than that puts a wrench into things as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 confused...you want to be in the jackpot 4 days out or don't want to be? I said I'm all set being in the jackpot...meaning I do not want to be. How often does that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Definitely better. Heh...and it still finds a way to make it snow in E SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You can see it's stronger at hr 90 with the s/w energy near LI with heights pumped up higher ahead of it. Anytime you have s/w energy diving SE through the Rockies and high plains with the origin coming from AK..it willbe difficult for models to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Is WAL Wallop's Island? GFS looks better. That twin low idea is delayed/gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Heh...and it still finds a way to make it snow in E SNE. Better for you too. Again, big circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Is WAL Wallop's Island? GFS looks better. That twin low idea is delayed/gone Yep, KWAL is Wallops Is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Take that lead low/conv feedback out of there and this system probably goes to town for NYC-SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I liked the 12z a little better aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Take that lead low/conv feedback out of there and this system probably goes to town for NYC-SNE. No doubt, convective feedback involved here still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ABC in Boston lead with a snow map roughly... 8-12 around the pike down to mid-CT, mid-RI, SE MA areas and 10-14 from Rt2 into S VT and SNH. Pretty bold to be throwing numbers out already. 4-8 for those outside of those highlighted areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I myself would like to hear from CT Rain on his thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No doubt, convective feedback involved here still. Like Scott said...sometimes it is real. But knowing the GFS's history it always has to give you pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ABC in Boston lead with a snow map roughly... 8-12 around the pike down to mid-CT, mid-RI, SE MA areas and 10-14 from Rt2 into S VT and SNH. Pretty bold to be throwing numbers out already. 4-8 for those outside of those highlighted areas. It's WxHype's world and we're just living in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ABC in Boston lead with a snow map roughly... 8-12 around the pike down to mid-CT, mid-RI, SE MA areas and 10-14 from Rt2 into S VT and SNH. Pretty bold to be throwing numbers out already. 4-8 for those outside of those highlighted areas. Ugh... I don't understand putting totals... unless you show all of New Eng and paint it with 2-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I don't know what you guys are looking at but this run looks almost entirely convectively driven off the MA/SE coast between 60 and 90 hours and can't be trusted... Talks about storm robbing -- horrible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I myself would like to hear from CT Rain on his thoughts He's too busy skiing and making forecasts for C VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not to be a weenie which of course I am but I think this 18z run is very similar to what Feb 13 looked like on the GFS 3 days prior. As far as progressive is, note the flow blocked up temporarily, classic way to get a slowdown. Long duration seems to be in play JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ABC in Boston lead with a snow map roughly... 8-12 around the pike down to mid-CT, mid-RI, SE MA areas and 10-14 from Rt2 into S VT and SNH. Pretty bold to be throwing numbers out already. 4-8 for those outside of those highlighted areas. Pretty bold. Higher numbers are shifting south on models too. Who cares, in their minds they win, first to throw numbers out to public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ABC in Boston lead with a snow map roughly... 8-12 around the pike down to mid-CT, mid-RI, SE MA areas and 10-14 from Rt2 into S VT and SNH. Pretty bold to be throwing numbers out already. 4-8 for those outside of those highlighted areas. Especially when they may well have the higher amounts in the wrong place. Great day up here....eager to get back for the cold and my brown grass. 18.,2/7 at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 He's too busy skiing and making forecasts for C VT lol - I dunno. I feel good for at least a couple of inches on Thursday with the nice lift over the cold dome. Beyond that it's a weird evolution. It's close to being big but I could see this easily sliding out to sea to our south. Pretty low confidence forecast for the "bigger" wave. Euro Ensembles verbatim are good but have trended south from 00z - not sure if that trend continues or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A small step away from any kU potential IMO but basically keeps the same moderate+ threat for all of NE, favoring SE sections. Comfortably within the 12z GEFs spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not to be a weenie which of course I am but I think this 18z run is very similar to what Feb 13 looked like on the GFS 3 days prior. As far as progressive is, note the flow blocked up temporarily, classic way to get a slowdown. Long duration seems to be in play JMHO Steve ... toss the run. It's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tip, we did reference that. It looks funny for sure. I like how as the parent low exists..it gives birth to a new one west of it. It also should be noted that the parent low was a shift SW from 12z. So perhaps in the stages of correcting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tip, we did reference that. It looks funny for sure. I like how as the parent low exists..it gives birth to a new one west of it. It also should be noted that the parent low was a shift SW from 12z. So perhaps in the stages of correcting? Correcting towards what? A continued trend south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.