Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II

[The_Global_Warmer]

Safe bet right now and I'm more conservative than most here.

The weenie GFS/NAM snow maps give most of us ~12"+

Not sure why some are so down on this system.

 

 

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX

 

 

 

Looks pretty damn solid.  With plenty of potential for 15"+ lollipops. 

 

I am envious of the collection of posting red taggers this corner of americanwx has.

 

I like the potential for such a prolonged accumulating event in this region plus the cold cold air mass in place.  May not be fast and furious but it has all the making of the perfect winter wonderland.

[CoastalWx]

LOL this is the bullsh*t spewed by horrible OCMs.

 

"The NAM and GFS have lower totals over SE MA because they show mixing, but the european model has the most snow because the storm is further offshore.."

 

This is them ripping snow algorithms that make zero sense. Shoot me.

[powderfreak]

Based on the replies you are in the minority. Congrats

I don't care if you use them or not, I'm just saying if someone posts a prob forecast, the correct interpretation is not that they are forecasting 1-16" of snow or whatever the spread of 1% to 100% confidence may be.

Everything in weather is probabilities. As a salesman I'm surprised you aren't more of a numbers guy

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't care if you use them or not, I'm just saying if someone posts a prob forecast, the correct interpretation is not that they are forecasting 1-16" of snow or whatever the spread of 1% to 100% confidence may be.

Everything in weather is probabilities. As a salesman I'm surprised you aren't more of a numbers guy

I like actual hard data..black and white..lines clearly drawn in sand.

 

Not grey areas or  hedging or wishy washy..be confident or get out the game

[ineedsnow]

Yeah I dont see how anyone can be down about this storm even if we all got even just 6 inches it would be a win.. I think 12z will give us some clues on how this will shape up

Looks pretty damn solid.  With plenty of potential for 15"+ lollipops. 

 

I am envious of the collection of posting red taggers this corner of americanwx has.

 

I like the potential for such a prolonged accumulating event in this region plus the cold cold air mass in place.  May not be fast and furious but it has all the making of the perfect winter wonderland.

[CarverWX]

LOL this is the bullsh*t spewed by horrible OCMs.

 

"The NAM and GFS have lower totals over SE MA because they show mixing, but the european model has the most snow because the storm is further offshore.."

 

This is them ripping snow algorithms that make zero sense. Shoot me.

HA! I just heard that on one of the Boston channels.

[HoarfrostHubb]

LOL this is the bullsh*t spewed by horrible OCMs.

"The NAM and GFS have lower totals over SE MA because they show mixing, but the european model has the most snow because the storm is further offshore.."

This is them ripping snow algorithms that make zero sense. Shoot me.

Ruh rho. Scooter on the warpath

But yeah. Ugly

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some dance with a coastal front, some CJ with OES. That's how it goes sometimes.

Very true.

[CoastalWx]

Ruh rho. Scooter on the warpath

But yeah. Ugly

 

When Harvey and Barry are gone, just turn off the TV. It's horrible.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I like actual hard data..black and white..lines clearly drawn in sand.

Not grey areas or hedging or wishy washy..be confident or get out the game

You understand forecasting weather is all grey. Models are probability based. The forecasts are probability based

No one has a crystal ball

[moneypitmike]

Take a weighted average for each region and there's your total.

 

 

Salesmen don't grasp probabilities.. only yes or no

 

Weighted is how we project in sales just as Dan suggests.

 

EC ensembles definitely south a bit. Seems like the op. Pretty lousy performance by the vaunted EC .

 

 

The EC lost that vaunted status over the summer.  To be clear, It's no Stevan Ridley. But I think the relative value of other models has increased as a result of its recent misses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bring it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I like actual hard data..black and white..lines clearly drawn in sand.

Not grey areas or hedging or wishy washy..be confident or get out the game

Hard data for a complex systen still 48hrs out? Yea go big or get out the game....youre a reasonable human being.

[Damage In Tolland]

You understand forecasting weather is all grey. Models are probability based. The forecasts are probability based

No one has a crystal ball

That's why we have meteorologists though correct? To help interpret that data and those probabilities and give us a black and white hard and fast forecast to the best of their ability.. When did it turn into calling for different percentages of chances of between 1 and 16 inches of snow?

[HoarfrostHubb]

When Harvey and Barry are gone, just turn off the TV. It's horrible.

There was a good convo between several on air mets yesterday that opened my eyes to some of the pressures they are under. Sucks for them

(Convo was on twitter)

[ROOSTA]

TV Mets (explaining with reasoning)  where a majority of the public receives information is horrible.

Probabilities with spread is utilized in SREF's. Why not with total amounts?  And will verify better than firm numbers.

 

2-4" 100%

4-8" 80%

8-12" 50%

12"+ 25%

 

Location dependent and QPF output in the 12Z, 00Z runs. Can't go wrong. 

[CoastalWx]

You know people north of the Pike will get some good overrunning for a time. In fact, there are signs they may be snowing for a while while southern areas dryslot a bit. The DS will not last as they play catchup Thursday night, but that is how I see it. 

[danstorm]

I like actual hard data..black and white..lines clearly drawn in sand.

 

Not grey areas or  hedging or wishy washy..be confident or get out the game

 

Eventually he'll put out a defined range which will be the lines drawn in the sand.

 

For now, I rather like the probabilistic forecast at this time range.  It allows you to construct a probability distribution and hone in on what he feels is most likely... as models shift this way or that with various features/QPF, you can think of this as adjusting this distribution in one way or another.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hard data for a complex systen still 48hrs out? Yea go big or get out the game....youre a reasonable human being.

I know it's NYE...but put down the Bourbon and step away from the keyboard for a bit. Maybe boil a glass of warm milk for yourself to help soothe the nerves.. Then come back..calmer, cooler, collected

 

Noone is asking for a final forecast now. Just a basic ballpark. How about 6-10 or 8-12?

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's why we have meteorologists though correct? To help interpret that data and those probabilities and give us a black and white hard and fast forecast to the best of their ability.. When did it turn into calling for different percentages of chances of between 1 and 16 inches of snow?

. I can see showing a prob thing then a map with what the met thinks is most likely

But right now I would think this storm is pretty low confidence

[moneypitmike]

That's why we have meteorologists though correct? To help interpret that data and those probabilities and give us a black and white hard and fast forecast to the best of their ability.. When did it turn into calling for different percentages of chances of between 1 and 16 inches of snow?

 

To take that argument further, you really shouldn't be satisfied with a forecast range.  They should say Tolland will get XXX and they win or lose.

 

You know people north of the Pike will get some good overrunning for a time. In fact, there are signs they may be snowing for a while while southern areas dryslot a bit. The DS will not last as they play catchup Thursday night, but that is how I see it. 

 

I've been more interested in the overrunning than the the coastal for up here forever--well maybe I caved a little to the excitement of the EC two nights ago.  But, increasingly I think it's the OR that will provide stuff out here.

[CoastalWx]

Also let's see what the 12z does because I may in fact tick north. I would not be shocked given H5. I wouldn't expect a jump north, but any little bit helps.

[ORH_wxman]

Weighted is how we project in sales just as Dan suggests.

 

 

The EC lost that vaunted status over the summer.  To be clear, It's no Stevan Ridley. But I think the relative value of other models has increased as a result of its recent misses.

 

 

The Euro still owns other guidance in model height scores and your favorite, QPF scores...about as well as it always has in the past several years. I think people are making the mistake of taking a solution it has 108 hours out and treating it as gospel....if you go back throughout the past 5 years or so, we've always said it really starts to hone in on its "deadly" range at about 84 hours or just inside. Its quite skillful beyond that, but it is not to be treated as if it scores 99% at day 4-5.

 

We track storms and start threads earlier and earlier than we ever used to.

[moneypitmike]

The Euro still owns other guidance in model height scores and your favorite, QPF scores...about as well as it always has in the past several years. I think people are making the mistake of taking a solution it has 108 hours out and treating it as gospel....if you go back throughout the past 5 years or so, we've always said it really starts to hone in on its "deadly" range at about 84 hours or just inside. Its quite skillful beyond that, but it is not to be treated as if it scores 99% at day 4-5.

 

We track storms and start threads earlier and earlier than we ever used to.

 

I don't disagree with you.  It still is the best.   But, I do believe the relative value of other models in forecasting (particualrly the GFS) has increased this year over prior ones.  You know better--you're the one making the forecasts.

[Damage In Tolland]

Any of you that follow Phil on Twitter. He driving the length of the cape tweeting snow reports from the OES this morning. Sounds like Messenger/Cweat is with him. Looks like up to an inch near the outer cape

[dendrite]

The Euro still owns other guidance in model height scores and your favorite, QPF scores...about as well as it always has in the past several years. I think people are making the mistake of taking a solution it has 108 hours out and treating it as gospel....if you go back throughout the past 5 years or so, we've always said it really starts to hone in on its "deadly" range at about 84 hours or just inside. Its quite skillful beyond that, but it is not to be treated as if it scores 99% at day 4-5.

We track storms and start threads earlier and earlier than we ever used to.

There's way more data at more times than non-mets ever had before. I laugh when I read things like "the euro was better in the early 2000s." The only thing weenies had access to back then were some coarse 500mb hgt, 850mb temp, and mslp maps at 24hr intervals from only a 00Z run. 24hr intervals with no QPF leaves a lot to the imagination. Also, the other LR models have made some big leaps since then so there isn't as much disparity as there used to be.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

EC ensembles definitely south a bit. Seems like the op. Pretty lousy performance by the vaunted EC .

It's been lousy most of the fall/winter Scott let's be honest. It's been too flat on most of the near misses/hits and it's almost resembling the old MRF in the number of phantom major storms it's producing in the mid range. It is either too flat or way overdone on almost every event in the middle and short to middle ranges. Still good inside of 2 or so days, but outside IMO it's been the frick

To the Gfs frack and I can't see a clear winner.

This year the euro IMO isn't better than consensus. This system only Hammers that home. This pattern doesn't support major kus right now. Could still be a major snow producer for some but the hype was way overboard on this one.

Edit: Will I agree. What happened though is over the last two years it was mostly deadly accurate even at 4 and sometimes 5 days so everyone assumes that is still the case but it isn't. It was over performing and as you said outside of 3 days it's fallen back to "normal" ranges.

I would argue there is something else going on though too. It's accuracy this year (look at Maine the ktherb day) even at 2-3 days is touchy.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I know it's NYE...but put down the Bourbon and step away from the keyboard for a bit. Maybe boil a glass of warm milk for yourself to help soothe the nerves.. Then come back..calmer, cooler, collected

Noone is asking for a final forecast now. Just a basic ballpark. How about 6-10 or 8-12?

6-10" is still probability based. Stop running in a hamster wheel, you are going nowhere.

[CoastalWx]

There is no question the euro is usually the better set of guidance, but this is a sort of in your face to those who were foolishly dismissing the GFS as garbage last night. There is a reason why we have guidance. You have to weigh everything.

[dendrite]

SREFs suck but they looked better for S NH with the initial overrunning.