danstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Violently disagree. Vehemently Take a weighted average for each region and there's your total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 DT thinks most of us are getting crushed, apparently 40 percent chance of 16"+ for a huge area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Change the thread title. Big snow threat is gone. Moderate snow threat looks good. Should be a nice bitter cold, protracted 7" over 36 hours, with manageable .5"/hr rates in heavier bursts. Can't wait to discuss oes contribution prospects for my favorite beach in Duxbury. GOod recommendation, Ray. 7" over 36 hours. Add some compaction to the mix. But, it'll look and feel wintry with the cool templs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Call me crazy but I'd much prefer a degreed met to produce a map telling us what they think the region will get rather than 6 probabilities. And I'm sure the general non weenie public would prefer that method, but maybe I'm crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 40 percent chance of 16"+ for a huge area! Are you sure there is a 16+ probability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah to me it's upstream that is more the issue. Without the PV this thing is over our fannies. Hopefully things tick north today. 06z looked decent to me. I may not be a MET but I slept at a Holiday Inn. Just maybe that s/w as modeled comes in less amplified today. What's the word on the Euro Ensm? Did they hold serve from 12z? Spread? And QPF Queens? I'm not down on this system at all. All the caveats with it have been spelled out perfectly. Should be a pretty widespread warning criteria snow for SNE and maybe up into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Call me crazy but I'd much prefer a degreed met to produce a map telling us what they think the region will get rather than 6 probabilities. And I'm sure the general non weenie public would prefer that method, but maybe I'm crazy I'm with you. Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Are you sure there is a 16+ probability? One part says 12-16" Then his example says 16-16". Either way such a large area of 30-40% chance of 12-16" seems overly optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm with you. Weak sauce. It's kind of like saying" "Well my forecast is for between 1-16 inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 DT way more optimistic that I am with my #'s. I'm at >50% for 6"+ in SE MA and 15% for 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I may not be a MET but I slept at a Holiday Inn. Just maybe that s/w as modeled comes in less amplified today. What's the word on the Euro Ensm? Did they hold serve from 12z? Spread? And QPF Queens? I'm not down on this system at all. All the caveats with it have been spelled out perfectly. Should be a pretty widespread warning criteria snow for SNE and maybe up into CNE. The euro enaembles were south of 12z but not much so. I'll have a better look in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 DT way more optimistic that I am with my #'s. I'm at >50% for 6"+ in SE MA and 15% for 10"+. So your forecast is for 6-10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Call me crazy but I'd much prefer a degreed met to produce a map telling us what they think the region will get rather than 6 probabilities. And I'm sure the general non weenie public would prefer that method, but maybe I'm crazy I agree that 6 probabilities is a bit much, but he is forecasting for a very wide region so has to standardize somewhat. Also, when you have a forecast for, say, 4-6"... that is a probabilistic forecast. The met may not say it, but he/she also likely believes that <4/>6 is possible... but it isn't usually framed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Some dance with a coastal front, some CJ with OES. That's how it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I do like the probability based ones like Ryan does where it is for a specific locale. I do not like DTs but I sort of understand why he does it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Change the thread title. Big snow threat is gone. Moderate snow threat looks good. Should be a nice bitter cold, protracted 7" over 36 hours, with manageable .5"/hr rates in heavier bursts. Can't wait to discuss oes contribution prospects for my favorite beach in Duxbury. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's kind of like saying" "Well my forecast is for between 1-16 inches" You are still not grasping it correctly if that is how you view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So your forecast is for 6-10+ Safe bet right now and I'm more conservative than most here. The weenie GFS/NAM snow maps give most of us ~12"+ Not sure why some are so down on this system. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Safe bet right now and I'm more conservative than most here. The weenie GFS/NAM snow maps give most of us ~12"+ Not sure why some are so down on this system. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX Also the SREF Plumes are rather bullish for a lot of the region. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Salesmen don't grasp probabilities.. only yes or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That trough is literally about 12 hours (ok more like 8-10) faster than the 12z...really progressive. I think that suits this pattern better than the slower solutions. I seem to recall this was the consensus a couple weeks ago, that it was hard to get bombs in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 DT way more optimistic that I am with my #'s. I'm at >50% for 6"+ in SE MA and 15% for 10"+. Note that DT's forecast was made at 11pm last night, ie, before some key guidance came out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Safe bet right now and I'm more conservative than most here. The weenie GFS/NAM snow maps give most of us ~12"+ Not sure why some are so down on this system. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=BOX I won't speak for anyone else , but snow all day Thursday and Friday with temps near 0 with wind is going to be special to me. 8 inches or more for everyone . Pure heaven in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 EC ensembles definitely south a bit. Seems like the op. Pretty lousy performance by the vaunted EC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You are still not grasping it correctly if that is how you view it.Based on the replies you are in the minority. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The trough stays positive or neutral the entire time..at least until its well offshore. I agree the kicker smashing the ridge out west is a bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I seem to recall this was the consensus a couple weeks ago, that it was hard to get bombs in this pattern That's been the risk all along with this. But, we sometimes we see a tick N over the last 72 hrs. It wouldn't surprise me if we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I seem to recall this was the consensus a couple weeks ago, that it was hard to get bombs in this pattern Still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For a weather forum, DT's probabilistic scheme is fine and captures much of the technical discussion put out by the NWS offices in a concise format. But for general public consumption....good luck with that! They will have no clue and see what they want to see(either 1" or 16", as their fancy takes them.) You are still not grasping it correctly if that is how you view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 EC ensembles definitely south a bit. Seems like the op. Pretty lousy performance by the vaunted EC . Euro did this last year a couple times...had overamped systems in the 96-108 hours range only to come back around 72-84 hours...though it doesn't always do this. It went wire to wire with the Feb blizzard....but this is one I never great about for a huge system even when the Euro was showing it. Still could come back a bit bigger...but the huge wound up low went against the lognwave pattern a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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