ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is definitely not digging the trough as much as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 75 People on here waiting up to listen to the Euro coming out with a flatter solution lol. Oh Well. Euro can't lead ALL the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro extends the overrunning furthest north way up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Crummy ratios 2/13 - 14. Wonder how they came up with that SWE?Based on the depth increases matching the daily snowfall I'm guessing they measured the new snowfall by depth increase? For a prolonged heavy snowfall there was probably a lot of compaction in the latter stages of the event yielding lower ratios. With today's measuring standards they may have reported a storm total of over 3' new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 75 People on here waiting up to listen to the Euro coming out with a flatter solution lol. Oh Well. Euro can't lead ALL the time.Is Miss America watching the Euro roll out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro and gfs are quite similar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro def not going to be a big bomb. Still a decent event with decent gfs/euro agreement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That trough is literally about 12 hours (ok more like 8-10) faster than the 12z...really progressive. I think that suits this pattern better than the slower solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All the gfs bashers confident they'll awaken to a euro that ...isn't a near Carbon copy.llbut it's is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That trough is literally about 12 hours (ok more like 8-10) faster than the 12z...really progressive. I think that suits this pattern better than the slower solutions. So a 4-8" fluff job. Beggars can't be choosers and not every storm can be a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On phone. What're the deets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Moderate snow event. A tough night for the qpf queens. Bank on the initial overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So a 4-8" fluff job. Beggars can't be choosers and not every storm can be a KU. 8-10" is what I'm going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Moderate snow event. A tough night for the qpf queens. Bank on the initial overrunning. Yup I think most of us thought that's where this was going. Never really had that KU look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So much for the great ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I still think we have another 24 hours for this to settle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I still think we have another 24 hours for this to settle. Yes even Tony Romo can win a game with 2 min remaining.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 76 to 40 users lol. But if we can get the positives to come back and tonight is our low point in the storm, just to get 1" with 15:1 ratios is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 76 to 40 users lol. But if we can get the positives to come back and tonight is our low point in the storm, just to get 1" with 15:1 ratios is huge.This doesn't have a 1" qpf look anywhere except maybe the cape/islands. Unless we can sharpen that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still trending, too. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a cirrus to 2-4" deal, for the interior. Perhaps 12-24 hours of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Note that the 00z ECMWF is much slower and less progressive with the 500 hPa Newfoundland low... hence much less amplified solution. Pretty much my concern from this morning is being realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This a big snowstorm coming models are changing many times but look at the weather pattern storm will near the the coast on the artic front . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6z NAM is a Super Long Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6z GFS still same long 6-10 on 10:1 ratios which it will be better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF mean puts PVD at 10" and BOS at 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pretty much holding serve overnight..Other than that crazy Euro run yesterday..Still is a regionwide 8+..long duration fluffy moderate snowstorm with temps near 0 and tons of blowing and drifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good question. Firstly, we have to get closer in, because the models are detonating lows at least excuse imaginable, way too premature and prior to the main S/W mechanics crossing the baroclinic axis. Even the Euro has been guilty of this at times recently. These lows are born out of explosive convection born of intense baroclinicity as it is acted upon by very minimal diffluence aloft, and because there is so much instability present, the models then maximize; but that "steals" the dynamics away from the better deep layer mechanics for the latter S/W amplitude when it nears, such that the better forcing for low genesis has less to work with. It's common in progressive flows for this type of "convective shearing" of systems. To get a system further north in the models would require they stop blowing up lows too early. The only real way to correct for this is to put convective schemes in the models that truly work. Not sure why, but for some reason nearer term solutions seem to compensate and/or suppress over-zealous convective -derived low formation, in lieu of the better forcing that comes along with the S/W. So therein is the answer. Thank you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Glad I never expected more than moderate. The bulk of things up here will be Wednesday night/Thursday. For up here, I think the impact of the low will primarily be keeping some cool temps flowing in and the breeze blowing. At least the ground will be white. Pathetic that there's nothing on the ground after the amount of snow we've had thus far this season. Pathetic. 6.4/4 at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So the Newfoundland 500 hpa low being slower and less progressive mucks this up-re Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Toaster sales seem to be on the rise this morning........lol. Plowable snow still looks probable. Chances of something more significant decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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