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Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II


Typhoon Tip

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Crummy ratios 2/13 - 14.  Wonder how they came up with that SWE?

Based on the depth increases matching the daily snowfall I'm guessing they measured the new snowfall by depth increase? For a prolonged heavy snowfall there was probably a lot of compaction in the latter stages of the event yielding lower ratios. With today's measuring standards they may have reported a storm total of over 3' new.
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Good question.

Firstly, we have to get closer in, because the models are detonating lows at least excuse imaginable, way too premature and prior to the main S/W mechanics crossing the baroclinic axis. Even the Euro has been guilty of this at times recently.

These lows are born out of explosive convection born of intense baroclinicity as it is acted upon by very minimal diffluence aloft, and because there is so much instability present, the models then maximize; but that "steals" the dynamics away from the better deep layer mechanics for the latter S/W amplitude when it nears, such that the better forcing for low genesis has less to work with.

It's common in progressive flows for this type of "convective shearing" of systems. To get a system further north in the models would require they stop blowing up lows too early. The only real way to correct for this is to put convective schemes in the models that truly work. Not sure why, but for some reason nearer term solutions seem to compensate and/or suppress over-zealous convective -derived low formation, in lieu of the better forcing that comes along with the S/W. So therein is the answer.

Thank you for the explanation.
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Glad I never expected more than moderate.  The bulk of things up here will be Wednesday night/Thursday.  For up here,  I think the impact of the low will primarily be keeping some cool temps flowing in and the breeze blowing.

 

At least the ground will be white.  Pathetic that there's nothing on the ground after the amount of snow we've had thus far this season.  Pathetic.

 

6.4/4 at the Pit.

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