Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well I thought both the PV look and ridging ahead of the low seemed to argue a better solution to be honest. Both looked better than 18z. It was better at the surface for impact in SNE on this 00z oper. run than the 18z, but it is still committing too much to that errant low that scoots out toward the NS waters ... evacuating dynamics seaward, just like we discussed earlier. Overall it's another sh!t run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looked good at h5...and with the pv trying to dive in, i dont believe the surface is accurate. Well i was out to 60 hrs when you commented, And already saw it was strung out East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'd take my chances. This run is boring and lame. Hopefully the EURO is still more robust. You're setting your expectations pretty high for a solution that has probably a 1 in 3 shot at happening. Good batting average for baseball, but for meteorology it causes disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 In JAD I trust. All in for this one Ray. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was a better at the surface for impact in SNE on this 00z oper. run than the 18z, but it is still committing too much to that errant low that scoots out toward the NS waters ... evacuating dynamics seaward, just like we discussed earlier. Overall it's another sh!t run Remember though there's been multiple instances already this season where weak, barely closed lows raced out in advance of the best upper support but still managed to mess up the overall parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I understand the whole feedback thing, but it can be real too. Unless you are a meteorological God who can see everything..it's kind of early to trash a set of guidance based on previous performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well i was out to 60 hrs when you commented, And already saw it was strung out East I was behind only to 48hr....no biggie. Just seemed much better in the upper levels until the surface shoots out ENE after that. I personally think its wierd but i never said i was a pro or knew it all so i know i could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I understand the whole feedback thing, but it can be real too. Unless you are a meteorological God who can see everything..it's kind of early to trash a set of guidance based on previous performance. What, you can't simulate each term in your head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What, you can't simulate each term in your head? Apparently some can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I understand the whole feedback thing, but it can be real too. Unless you are a meteorological God who can see everything..it's kind of early to trash a set of guidance based on previous performance. The GFS has had a track record of doing this for a good 2-3 winters now with several storms, I think it was doing this with the 2/8 event last year with these multiple lows off NC and it did not finally catch on until about 2 days out...the NAM actually jumped on the Euro train before the GFS did...it would not surprise me if the same thing happens again here, it seems when the GFS struggles it struggles up until the 4th quarter...the Euro holding or even going more towards it previous idea will give me more confidence in believing the GFS is having issues with the evolution down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The GFS has had a track record of doing this for a good 2-3 winters now with several storms, I think it was doing this with the 2/8 event last year with these multiple lows off NC and it did not finally catch on until about 2 days out...the NAM actually jumped on the Euro train before the GFS did...it would not surprise me if the same thing happens again here, it seems when the GFS struggles it struggles up until the 4th quarter...the Euro holding or even going more towards it previous idea will give me more confidence in believing the GFS is having issues with the evolution down there. I know it struggles with it and it would not shock me for a tick north, but the trend is undeniable and yet it seems like some have blinders on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 gem holds ground.. out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I understand the whole feedback thing, but it can be real too. Unless you are a meteorological God who can see everything..it's kind of early to trash a set of guidance based on previous performance. Isnt weighing in models past performances part of the process? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Apparently some can. Most don't even use models. They just do all the physics in their head and are able to know exactly what's going to happen. Then they check their work with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Cmc similar to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Canadian is pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well hopefully the euro isn't caving too hard. The GFS op looked good and I would think it's similar or a bit better as far as the 00z euro op goes. The ukie and GEM have sh*t on themselves before in this range. I trust the GFS and Euro a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Off to bed. Hope the euro holds or the big snow option is pretty much all but gone (if it was ever really even there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Isnt weighing in models past performances part of the process? Of course, but you also need to keep in mind the recent trends. I said earlier that we probably won't have a final answer until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I know it struggles with it and it would not shock me for a tick north, but the trend is undeniable and yet it seems like some have blinders on. Yea, the trend in the entirety of guidance is pronounced and undeniable. Its why I feel ill. CJ watch is in effect....should the next 24 hours worth of runs continue to suck, and focus most of the excitement on the beaches of the s shore, then the cj watch may have to be upgraded to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well hopefully the euro isn't caving too hard. The GFS op looked good and I would think it's similar or a bit better as far as the 00z euro op goes. The ukie and GEM have sh*t on themselves before in this range. I trust the GFS and Euro a lot more. Both haven't been very good in our winter systems thus far this season...esp the GEM, its been horrific for some reason. I mean it's not supposed to be great, but it should be at least competent. Regardless, there is plenty to like synoptically about this system...SNE is essentially in the mid-level crosshairs to varying degrees on every model run, so I think confidence is growing for at least a moderate event. We'll hae to see if the Euro can lead the way with a larger event, or if it got too excited in the medium range for a couple runs. We've seen that before too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea, the trend in the entirety of guidance in pronounced and undeniable. Its why I feel ill. CJ watch is in effect....should the next 24 hours worth of runs continue to suck, and focus most of the excitement on the beaches of the s shore, then the cj watch may have to be upgraded to a warning. Riding it out with messenger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Canadian is pretty far offshore. Yeah, without seeing it ... it's probably doing the same thing... and they are going to keep doing it until it either misses or impact more formally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Of course, but you also need to keep in mind the recent trends. I said earlier that we probably won't have a final answer until tomorrow night. We have been trending from south to north and now its back down south. I dont know where it goes, never said i did. Frankly it doesnt matter what happens, this is a discussion/learning forum. Problem is, some people think this is a right vs wrong forum, and are too quick to put posts in a category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Exactly the scenario I was dreading.The fact you fell for the Euro über bomb last night is well, rather unsettling, cripes even Kevin downplayed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Both haven't been very good in our winter systems thus far this season...esp the GEM, its been horrific for some reason. I mean it's not supposed to be great, but it should be at least competent. Regardless, there is plenty to like synoptically about this system...SNE is essentially in the mid-level crosshairs to varying degrees on every model run, so I think confidence is growing for at least a moderate event. We'll hae to see if the Euro can lead the way with a larger event, or if it got too excited in the medium range for a couple runs. We've seen that before too. I feel pretty good for a moderate event, here. I like the synoptic look and flow off the water for now. Considering it's been brown since before Christmas...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised at a bump northwest as we get closer with all the circulation features...its hard to outrun a decent trough like that, but there's some speed divegence out ahead. I do think regardless, that the initial isentropic upglide looks pretty darn good. That could definitely over perform. That's where my money lies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The fact you fell for the Euro über bomb last night is well, rather unsettling, cripes even Kevin downplayed it. It always important to remember that we have multiple models. 4-5 days out is an eternity and things can happen. In fact, we may not be done with changes..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Because the person who would normally post this is fast asleep, I'll do it.... "@BigJoeBastardi: As usual GFS too far east with development as stronger 500 pattern argues for low off Delmarva, north se ACK. Error looks typical to me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Basically an OES machine for us, nice moderate event with upscale potential. Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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