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Big Snow threat, what will it do, part II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 12/30/2013 at 11:55 PM, mattb65 said:

Absolutely, many of them have years of experience forecasting for SNE, and they are synthesizing all the data and their past experiences to present their current thinking. Many are leaning >8" based on their maps. That information is valuable to me, just like when they are bearish on an event.

 

great. then watch tv and go to social media. that is what those avenues are for.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted
  On 12/30/2013 at 11:30 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said:

posting tv or social media mets snowfall amounts at this stage adds nothing to the discussion. just more garbage to sift through.

 

I agree..potential is there for just about anything. Right now conservative is the way to go. Moderate confidence in a moderate snowfall.

  On 12/30/2013 at 11:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

The factors look good overall for SNE. Good PVA, mid level circulation placements..etc. I like it.

Agree totally Scott. I'm having fun dissecting the 18z GFS in Wingridds.

  

  On 12/30/2013 at 11:39 PM, mattb65 said:

Disagree, their thoughts are useful and often valuable.

IMO its reckless.

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CTSkywarn

CTSkywarn

Posted
Posted

It's interesting, because the TV Mets in Connecticut don't really seem to hype anything.  A matter of fact, they seem pretty conservative, after-all.  It is usually the anchors who will hype the headlines... "some big snow coming".. etc.  But, I happen to think the Mets report responsibly and do a great job overall, in my opinion.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:24 AM, RI Rob said:

Help me out guys, still at work so I'm not able to check the models. Is everything trending south now? What happened to everyone being excited over the Euro/GFS?

 

There was a notable trend south, but still a good hit since most models have a very large precip shield well north of the low.

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

Posted
Posted

To put out snowfall maps in this situation is pointless, you are going to have to change it several times before the storm gets here.  It is a waste of your God given energy.  To me we should nail down the preferred track given guidance and with the disturbance in question not sampled yet given that its taking its sweet time making landfall, I would say 12z tomorrow runs will determine more than the 00z runs tonight.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:24 AM, CTSkywarn said:

It's interesting, because the TV Mets in Connecticut don't really seem to hype anything.  A matter of fact, they seem pretty conservative, after-all.  It is usually the anchors who will hype the headlines... "some big snow coming".. etc.  But, I happen to think the Mets report responsibly and do a great job overall, in my opinion.

What I heard was a couple inches Thursday with the chance for a bigger storm Thursday night. Local mets about as conservative as you can play it at this point.
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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:29 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't like conservatism in wx. But just about every other aspect of life I do . Interesting

You'd probably be the guy to shout "fire!" in a movie theater. Its about being responsible. Just saying. Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/30/2013 at 11:41 PM, DomNH said:

Man I'd like to lock the 12z Euro solution for here. That's gotta be a total fluffbomb and I like how the 700mb low closes off to the SW and passes to our SE instead of right overhead.

 

Givie me last night's EC.....

 

 

  On 12/31/2013 at 12:07 AM, weathafella said:

Great choice for days off for me. No work till Thursday. Lots of weenie time.

 

Same here----but I need to be judicious in my time with the family.

 

I really like where you are and points south.  I guess we might get some good snow out here, too.  But the best times will really be to the east wrt heavy snow and wind. 

 

14.6/6 at the Pit.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:38 AM, Wx4cast said:

You'd probably be the guy to shout "fire!" in a movie theater. Its about being responsible. Just saying. Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may.

I'll add that the extreme solution verifying is usually rare...especially if it's at d4-5 and only 1 or 2 runs of a particular model. But I guess the public doesn't care as much as they used to in this age of "reality" TV They just want drama and something to talk about in social media at this range. I think most of the public won't hold a forecast against you unless it's a forecast bust inside 24hrs.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:38 AM, Wx4cast said:

You'd probably be the guy to shout "fire!" in a movie theater. Its about being responsible. Just saying. Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may.

 

My brother in Concord just sent me a text that they (not sure who) was calling for 18".

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Wildcard

Wildcard

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:38 AM, Wx4cast said:

Most mets have a much larger audience and end user to serve and therefore being responsible and conservative is prudent. You don't have any responsibility attached to your forecasts so you can post and forecast as you may.

 

Don't post much (obviously) and I only lurk during the winter, but this is a great point. Mets that don't aire on the side of caution can literally start mass chaos (slightly overexaggerating) and then we go to buy groceries and there's no bread and milk..........it's all gone :( lol

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:43 AM, moneypitmike said:

Givie me last night's EC.....

Same here----but I need to be judicious in my time with the family.

I really like where you are and points south. I guess we might get some good snow out here, too. But the best times will really be to the east wrt heavy snow and wind.

14.6/6 at the Pit.

Our ratios should be great.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:43 AM, moneypitmike said:

Givie me last night's EC.....

 

 

 

Same here----but I need to be judicious in my time with the family.

 

I really like where you are and points south.  I guess we might get some good snow out here, too.  But the best times will really be to the east wrt heavy snow and wind. 

 

14.6/6 at the Pit.

 

You would do better with the 12z I think.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:28 AM, snowman21 said:

What I heard was a couple inches Thursday with the chance for a bigger storm Thursday night. Local mets about as conservative as you can play it at this point.

 

Yeah that's what I went with today. No point in getting more worked up - we'll see what tomorrow's models bring and then we can crank up the hype. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:48 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol.. And I certainly didn't vote for Obama.

Looks like a solid winter storm from border to border

Bet you won't vote for him in 2016! Would yu have if he guaranteed end to end snow every winter of his term and it was locked?...lol.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/31/2013 at 12:47 AM, CoastalWx said:

You would do better with the 12z I think.

 

In that case, I hope the 12z EC holds steady and does more of what it was doing.

 

  On 12/31/2013 at 12:50 AM, dendrite said:

QPFology > meteorology?

 

After yesterday, i no longer care about qpf.  I'm all about ratios.  Conclusion: 1:1 sucks.

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