Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 "If someone has the time, we're good to start a new thread for this. We're at 1500 posts." I rather like this 18z NAM solution ... not for it's deteministic value, but it has a nice solid 24 hour wintry look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 weathafella, on 30 Dec 2013 - 3:39 PM, said: He's got to be less emotionally invested.... I'm just thinking more moderation is required here, and cited veracious reasoning... I have maintained all along, I am more confident of something being on the charts than that 00z Euro run, and seeing the 12z shift around, just adds to my case. I did offer that a NJ Model low would be a better fit for this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 John, if I had a weather related business I'd hire you. Nice 1/6 thread and hopeful good juju for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The water vapor imagery suggests that the energy in question is blasting British Columbia, Canada right now. I think the faster models might be on to something and may actually be correct in a more progressive and out to sea solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 "If someone has the time, we're good to start a new thread for this. We're at 1500 posts." I rather like this 18z NAM solution ... not for it's deteministic value, but it has a nice solid 24 hour wintry look to it. "The I-90 snowstorm...Chicago-Buffalo-Albany-Boston" on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 John, if I had a weather related business I'd hire you. Nice 1/6 thread and hopeful good juju for this one. The problem with that Miami heights and mid level wind teleconnector I have is that it is not a 1::1. I have seen significant events occur when heights were high down there, and the winds were screaming... It's just that it "interferes" is the way to look at it, dimming "total" cyclogenesis parameters to various degrees. If a given S/W approaching 100 W is very powerful, it will overcome that.. I know that some others do not believe that data-sparseness is an issue, but NCEP does not concur with you. They have recently commented that the dearth in the input grids up over the N. Pac is a factor for the middle range, and as far as I can tell all guidance don't bring those dynamics into the denser soundings until overnight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The water vapor imagery suggests that the energy in question is blasting British Columbia, Canada right now. I think the faster models might be on to something and may actually be correct in a more progressive and out to sea solution. It's still south of the Gulf of Alaska. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html Actually there is an atmospheric river of moisture extending from Hawaii to the pacific northwest. The diabatic heating associated with that feature may cause some further uncertainty for the model forecasts as that piece of energy rounds the ridge near the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's still south of the Gulf of Alaska. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html Actually there is an atmospheric river of moisture extending from Hawaii to the pacific northwest. The diabatic heating associated with that feature may cause some further uncertainty for the model forecasts as that piece of energy rounds the ridge near the west coast. ooh good pt! it could cause the models to put the emPHAsis on the wrong syLLAbles so to speak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's still south of the Gulf of Alaska. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html Actually there is an atmospheric river of moisture extending from Hawaii to the pacific northwest. The diabatic heating associated with that feature may cause some further uncertainty for the model forecasts as that piece of energy rounds the ridge near the west coast. Oh that is a good possibility. I could be wrong in reading the water vapor imagery though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Haha, PHL gets 0 through the whole thing... wow. Somehow that seems like that should change but you never know.... oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Haha, PHL gets 0 through the whole thing... wow. Somehow that seems like that should change but you never know.... oh man I've seen more than a few times in a classic miller b they get nothing and NYC sees 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I will go 2-5" for BTV right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I've seen more than a few times in a classic miller b they get nothing and NYC sees 6 inches You know ... I remember in FAST we discussed the negative node associated with that phenomena. Basically, the primary comes along with it's driving mid level features, and then the primary can't go through the mountains/cold dammed, viscous air, so the a new low develops over the shore waters. But in doing so, the frontogenic mechanics wane with the primary, ...effectively abandoning the precipitation engine. That fades ... and the new one explodes with the new low closer to the coast. This is sometimes also referred to as a "humidity jump," and it will indeed cause a stripe to succeed through an event without actually getting the event - much to their bemusement, no doubt. I have actually seen that happen up this way, too, but yeah -- it's a more common of a boning reserved for DCA-PHL. Doesn't always happen, but in a pure Miller-B it is something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Disturbance is near the Gulf of Alaska right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sref's (Which I hate) and have been awful..but posting anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Disturbance seems to be near 50N and 150W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensemble mean QPF of about 1" for BOS and about 3/4" for most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sref's (Which I hate) and have been awful..but posting anyway We toss. I feel like outside of really close range, they have been pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know that some others do not believe that data-sparseness is an issue, but NCEP does not concur with you. They have recently commented that the dearth in the input grids up over the N. Pac is a factor for the middle range, and as far as I can tell all guidance don't bring those dynamics into the denser soundings until overnight into tomorrow morning.That data issue was clearly stated yesterday. They should be getting info soon tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Disturbance seems to be near 50N and 150W. It's tough to say... the 12z initialization of the operational GFS (fwiw) was more pearled out, showing several v-maxes along a common axis through 50N ... and if you push the chart ahead in time it is difficult to tell which is dominant, or if they phase together or what-else occurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We toss. I feel like outside of really close range, they have been pretty badThose are some pretty good probs for 4+ given the lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 That data issue was clearly stated yesterday. They should be getting info soon tho? ... last year a couple of times they flew special P3 sounding missions up in that region to supply better input into the grids -- I think they did so for the February blizzard but I'm not certain of that. I haven't heard of them doing so for this thing as of yet, or any plan to do so. But unless that happens, the models would receive the better feed overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Those are some pretty good probs for 4+ given the lead time. I suppose your right, but if trends continue that will all be shifted south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's tough to say... the 12z initialization of the operational GFS (fwiw) was more pearled out, showing several v-maxes along a common axis through 50N ... and if you push the chart ahead in time it is difficult to tell which is dominant, or if they phase together or what-else occurs... I think the dominant one is near 50N: 150W seen with the strong spin in water vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well no offense to anyone, but I'm all set being in the jackpot 4 days out. Good luck holding that. Yes it's a weenie comment, but true about 85% of the time. There are reasons why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Like the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Scott any thoughts on the handling of the energy near 50N: 150W near the Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS looks better..a little more consolidated, but faster too. You can tell it wants to form a low near WAL..but a weenie convective low sort of messes it up. Could be feedback, but also real as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually the energy I'm talking about is near 55N: 150W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Definitely better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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