subdude Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow it would be great to see this continue to trend east and be snow or an ice storm... snow yes ice no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 According to the Euro (of a few days ago) we should have a 978 south of LI tonight headed for 962 off the Cape.... Hows that verifying. Toss the Euro for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe snow to ice in Montreal on that.... Did you even look at the GGEM before writing this? Twitter does not count as a model run.It's a rainstorm in Montreal with a low over ART.image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro Ens are similar to the op, they've been aweful consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That's disconcerting..Sounds like another GFS/GEFS-v Euro/Euro Ens battle..probably meet in the middle with a HRV runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The Saint Lawrence Valley track is an almost climo favored spot with the mean trough so far west. Maybe someone else can chime in but ART isn't all that uncommon in our torch/cutters. Much more likely than like over the Adirondacks or Greens. It's usually ART or BTV and then east of there it's more like VSF. actually GGEM is an ice storm for NNE http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thing is ...this is an arctic and/or polar stream short wave. It's not gonna be pushing particularly mild air ahead of it. There probably wont even be much qpf in the warmer sector initially. The only place that could theoretically torch badly as in >50 would be southern and eastern NE where the warm air can be brought up last minute (and briefly) from the Atlantic. So no doubt interior locales and much of NNE would be in more of an ice situation...assuming the ECM type track. actually GGEM is an ice storm for NNE http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thing is ...this is an arctic and/or polar stream short wave. It's not gonna be pushing particularly mild air ahead of it. There probably wont even be much qpf in the warmer sector initially. The only place that could theoretically torch badly as in >50 would be southern and eastern NE where the warm air can be brought up last minute (and briefly) from the Atlantic. So no doubt interior locales and much of NNE would be in more of an ice situation...assuming the ECM type track. I have been thinking ice for a while as you know, I agree with your line of thought here, that and the Euros want to overamplify troughs, battle royale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have been thinking ice for a while as you know, I agree with your line of thought here, that and the Euros want to overamplify troughs, battle royale I haven't been paying a lot of attention to this thread, Steve. Were you thinking ice earlier wrt to SNE? I assume that ship has sailed if you were since you're now speaking NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z gfs is cutting away, looks like the euro most likely wins this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I haven't been paying a lot of attention to this thread, Steve. Were you thinking ice earlier wrt to SNE? I assume that ship has sailed if you were since you're now speaking NNE. NNE, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Alright ... now that I have had some chance to look at everything, the signal is still there; it just may not be the type of drama people want. Folks here are clearly pre-concerned with snow, ice, and cold. However, considering where we will be in hollows of Friday night (temperature), and again next Tuesday night, to slip a warm rainy scenario in between is pretty damn dramatic. Particularly when considering that this is synoptic scaled mass-field flip overs. It's still not entirely etched in stone but I would side with wetter solutions, however, limit the amount of actual warming due to the speed of system translation. It's just not going to be around that long... This one may move by even faster than the last rain ball did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Every GEFS member is a cutter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 on the bright side, the leftover cement is going to have some staying power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NWS/GYX still forecasting snow for Newry, ME and Bartlett, NH. I wonder what they are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AFTER WAKING UP TO SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THREE YEARSSATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO AND A FRESHSNOWPACK IN MANY AREAS...READINGS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODERATE.IN FACT...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLY A MIXED PRECIPITATIONEVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE LOW ASMODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THISSYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...PREFER THE COOLER...MORE EASTERLY TRACK OFTHE GFS CONSIDERING HOW MUCH COLD AIR REMAINS IN THE REGIONAT THE MOMENT. THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN STILL APPEARS TO BE TOOFAR WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHERARCTIC SURGE ON THE WAY FOR OUR REGION. Never mind, it seems just the graphical and text forecasts call for snow, the AFD says 'mix' and possibly hasn't updated to the most recent GFS runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The one thing to keep an eye on is there are some subtle signs of a weak secondary /that would pop right along the s coast..It would still warm above freezing but if that indeed does happen it would help keep the LL cold in to some degree esp inland..Just something to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have the feeling this storm will deepen 10-15 mbs lower than current model runs and we'll start to see the real picture when the models factor in the deep snow cover being laid down tonight and Friday in the northeast. It may track as shown but it will be rotating like Roberto Luongo in game seven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 cutters gone cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eur insane troop, just insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eur insane troop, just insaneEuro still showing cutter? Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Euro still showing cutter? Rain?Yup. Torch Monday, but impressive cold following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yup. Torch Monday, but impressive cold following it. That is quite the shot of cool air behind it. BOX continues to hit mixed precip for quite a while out here with the event. I'm thinking that'll shift to more liquid as we go along, but I hold out hope that we mighit be able to get a changeover with an inch or two on the back end. We know how that usuallys goes, but the track and qpf may be more conducive for that out here than is typically the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That's just not right to get a rainer sandwiched between 2 polar air masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That's just not right to get a rainer sandwiched between 2 polar air masses Not only a rainer..but temps near 60 in SE Mass..brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not only a rainer..but temps near 60 in SE Mass..brutal Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not only a rainer..but temps near 60 in SE Mass..brutal Cutters gon cut. Hopefully, some mix as on the front-end as the cold gets scoured out and a flip to snow on the backend. Asking a little much, but that's about the best we can hope for methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Cutters gon cut. Hopefully, some mix as on the front-end as the cold gets scoured out and a flip to snow on the backend. Asking a little much, but that's about the best we can hope for methinks. Still think the Euro is probably too far west and too aggressive with the warmth. I mean it's got low 60's with dews near 60 in Se New Eng.. Hopefully it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Still think the Euro is probably too far west and too aggressive with the warmth. I mean it's got low 60's with dews near 60 in Se New Eng.. Hopefully it's wrong well it didn't do too well with the scooter,bob,messenger, Phil blizzard...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Up here, I think we will start out as a mix of snow/sleet and some rain showers before the front blast thru here monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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