dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 They were consistent on this one being mainly nothing to right home about. Euro and it's ensembles are mortal this year and have been badly wrong several times. The euro got schooled on this event as well, Its still very good, Just not infallible like it once was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What are the ensembles showing for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow it would be great to see this continue to trend east and be snow or an ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There are certain snowmobilers in that area who would love it also. Lol, Oh yes you, Was out yesterday did a small 50 mile loop, Trails were mint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 One thing is for sure...it's a very different animal from that mega torch. The system would have to do a hail mary pass of pulling mild temps up off the Atlantic for New England and it would be a lot briefer before the cold rushed right back in. Hopefully climo will have some role and the lowest surface pressure takes the coastal plain route. The alternative would be way west into central/western NY like some Euro runs have showed. The middle route up the mountains through like DDH is very rare and doesn't usually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What are the ensembles showing for this storm? The mean is east/colder than the op, but I haven't looked at the individual members yet to see what their doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The mean is east/colder than the op, but I haven't looked at the individual members yet to see what their doing. where can I look at the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 where can I look at the ensembles? Here are the members, mix of a couple cutters and some colder solutions. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, That is a good sign, The 12z GEFS is east of the op, Need to get the Euro on board now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Man I wonder if we are gonna dodge a bullet with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Man I wonder if we are gonna dodge a bullet with this one? Whatever the outcome, I'm trying to take some solace in the fact that it'll be brief. Would be nice if there was another snow threat to look forward to, especially with so many talking about a mid-month thaw beyond next week's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Man I wonder if we are gonna dodge a bullet with this one? The background pattern is still one of larger than normal gradients, and thus anomalously fast flow. That native progressive character to the flow, doesn't really lend too well to the Euro's operational solution. I suppose it is possible that the Euro could succeed in producing "an anomaly within an anomaly" - complicated discourse, but sometimes that sort of thing happens. But excluding that more rarefied outcome for a moment, the preferred solution really is the GFS operational together with it ensemble mean, in having the whole of the SPV evolution be somewhat E of the Euro camp; as well as any attendant sfc evolution through the period. As is, the GFS offers little time for very much meaningful thaw. In fact, some question comes into play as to whether western NE might even have to deal with some freezing/frozen. Yes the 12z came slightly E of the 00z with the sfc features, but that could also just be giga motions across successive runs. If the overall notion of a more east solution is the correct path, eventually, even the typical meridional model types would begin to concede. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, That is a good sign, The 12z GEFS is east of the op, Need to get the Euro on board now GEFS mean is a big snow storm from ALB to NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'd gladly take some sleet/zr over drenching rain. If it snows, all the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still a big cutter on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still a big cutter on the euro. It really hasn't budged for about 4 or 5 runs since it backed off the fantasy superstorm over BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still a big cutter on the euro. Puke'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meh..Euro on it's own.. I'd bet we see a big jump east 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meh..Euro on it's own.. I'd bet we see a big jump east 00z tonight It's not on it's own. GGEM/UKIE/NAVGEM all agree with it. GFS is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well, seeing the euro being consistent (more or less) leads me to favor that outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's not on it's own. GGEM/UKIE/NAVGEM all agree with it. GFS is all alone. LOL..the GGEM doesn't and neither does the Ukie..You're not getting a big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS has shifted this further east again, Tracks the low over the foothills here Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I need this thing to shift east about 50 or more miles. The last thing I want to deal with is a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 One thing is for sure...it's a very different animal from that mega torch. The system would have to do a hail mary pass of pulling mild temps up off the Atlantic for New England and it would be a lot briefer before the cold rushed right back in. Hopefully climo will have some role and the lowest surface pressure takes the coastal plain route. The alternative would be way west into central/western NY like some Euro runs have showed. The middle route up the mountains through like DDH is very rare and doesn't usually verify. Yeah ...honestly, if it is preservation of snow on the ground that is motivating folks I do not believe the events slated to transpire from late Sunday through Tuesday next week will be all that bad for you. Even the warmer guidance types only have about 9 hours of rapid translation through what really amounts to more of a hybrid warm sector as oppose to one of those full-on, odd-ball 60F DP transport, warm-CB events that occasionally occur in mid winter. That happened in 1995-1996s awesome season to temporarily put an end to the enormous snow pack -- this isn't one of those types of gales, not even close... Then, there is also still some chance the whole structure will edge east and thread needles, as it is said... Obviously the old adage that past performance does not necessarily apply can be incorporated in this, but still... the Euro has been unstable in this background progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I need this thing to shift east about 50 or more miles. The last thing I want to deal with is a slop fest. Toss the Euro for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Toss the Euro for now i really want , even the ens members are east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 LOL..the GGEM doesn't and neither does the Ukie..You're not getting a big snowstorm Did you even look at the GGEM before writing this? Twitter does not count as a model run. It's a rainstorm in Montreal with a low over ART. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Did you even look at the GGEM before writing this? Twitter does not count as a model run. It's a rainstorm in Montreal with a low over ART. image.jpg The 00z GGEM was an icestorm..I wasn't talking about 12z..and how many lows have you seen over Watertown NY in your life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00z GGEM was an icestorm..I wasn't talking about 12z..and how many lows have you seen over Watertown NY in your life?The Saint Lawrence Valley track is an almost climo favored spot with the mean trough so far west.Maybe someone else can chime in but ART isn't all that uncommon in our torch/cutters. Much more likely than like over the Adirondacks or Greens. It's usually ART or BTV and then east of there it's more like VSF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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