CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hope so. Scooter's trolling worked. Got me all bummed out. All I said is that it's a viable option. You bring it on yourself by setting the bar high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's kind of early to assume a winter pattern. What comes after the arctic shot next week.. a 3-4 day torch from what we've been reading..That brings us into mid January..where it's almost half over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What comes after the arctic shot next week.. a 3-4 day torch from what we've been reading..That brings us into mid January..where it's almost half over Do me a favor. Think back to where I was last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Do me a favor. Think back to where I was last year at this time. That really doesn't have anything to do with this winter and the pattern we're in. Maybe the 2nd half will be a blockbuster with the developing weak nino..Until we have proof..it seems like this is what we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Its not a lock we get wiped out from the 1/7 storm...some of the guidance keeps us colder and shows signs of CAD...even icier. The milder rainy scenario is definitely a legit possibility, but I'd wait until we get more support for it before mentally erasing your snowpack. Euro in the D6 range can certainly be argued to have been over-zealous with its storm development this season (and last). is there any blocking around 1/7? I think that will help determine whether it's a Buffalo runner or maybe something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That really doesn't have anything to do with this winter and the pattern we're in. Maybe the 2nd half will be a blockbuster with the developing weak nino..Until we have proof..it seems like this is what we have Yes it does. I'm not saying to expect another 60", my point is long range is voodoo and there is no way to foresee a nice stretch especially since the hemispheric signals are not horrible. Maybe the 80s come back to say hello this year, but I think that's tough to say. Not every winter is 150%+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just think .... if things break right we could be missed by both systems altogether -- I actually wouldn't mind that, because the abject state of moods is amusing to me. Muah hahahahahahha. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just think .... if things break right we could be missed by both systems altogether -- I actually wouldn't mind that, because the abject state of moods is amusing to me. Muah hahahahahahha. j/k These threads would make a good case study for a psych student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 These threads would make a good case study for a psych student. Ha ha ha, I know it... man, I used criticize the collective for that ...neurotic behavior (for lack of better phrase) but quickly found that it does no good and stopped. Heh, you get what you pay for.... You wanna be part of the collection, you gotta handle the idiosyncrasies therein... It's a helluva lot better than being obsessed with, gee, I dunno, heroin, crack? Can't recall what thread I am in but the 18z NAM is substantially more amplified at 39 hours compared to the 12z's 45 hour, as the trough turns the corner in the MV/TV areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 EURO is to winter storms now as Nogaps is to tropical storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It looks to me like even the 12z GFS run isn't yet far enough east for this thing to hit NNE outside of the BTV area. Am I missing something? The mood in here is more positive than I am used to while staring down the barrel of a January rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It looks to me like even the 12z GFS run isn't yet far enough east for this thing to hit NNE outside of the BTV area. Am I missing something? The mood in here is more positive than I am used to while staring down the barrel of a January rain storm. Most are focusing on thurs/fri storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 OZ GFS cuts it from around NYC over SNE to PWM more or less. Snow in my area. Snow to mix/rain in SNE. No epic torches on the GFS because it would be a very brief mild-up and deep cold reload. I didn't see the ECMWF. Wunderground maps malfunctioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z Euro cuts the storm over Cleveland and into Ontario. Mild out ahead of it. Extreme northern NE doesn't quite "torch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sounds like just an unphased northern stream thing then.... and reload of the cold. 0z Euro cuts the storm over Cleveland and into Ontario. Mild out ahead of it. Extreme northern NE doesn't quite "torch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sounds like just an unphased northern stream thing then.... and reload of the cold. It gets pretty wound up (too lazy to go back and look but I remember 992mb over Cleveland and stronger in Ontario)... and yes reloads the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro ensembles cut a 990s low over BUF. Lets hope the gfs has a better handle on it 06z would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro ensembles cut a 990s low over BUF. Lets hope the gfs has a better handle on it 06z would be pretty nice.What way are you leaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What way are you leaning? The euro ensemble support is concerning, but it was also nice to see the gfs stay weaker overnight. gfs individual members are all over the place. I think itll probably be wet in SNE but it still may not be an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thing is ..if it goes way west and is just a polar/arctic stream clipper type low, it wont do great damage to us. Would be one mild day and some showers of R or S with a fropa. If it phases and passes nearby to the west that's the worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 fwiw the gem looks like more of a compromise, looks icy across NNE. But it is the gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thing is ..if it goes way west and is just a polar/arctic stream clipper type low, it wont do great damage to us. Would be one mild day and some showers of R or S with a fropa. If it phases and passes nearby to the west that's the worst case. I'm intrigued by the shifit on the GFS. Another thought wrt the EC. It would seem to me that the (assuming it continues) aspects of data forcing it to adjust the first system is having impact throughout it's view of the world. It can't change the immediate without an impact on what it will be showing 5 days from now. So--let the immediate system continue to change dramatically and let the chips fall where they will for this second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gusty (foolhardy???) call by BOX for this system in GC. No mention of rain. SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. . SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. . MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. . MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I smell an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I smell an ice storm You really see surfacte temps that low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I smell an ice storm with a fropa like that? Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I smell an ice stormWhere's the big sfc high in QB? Maybe the CAD spots start as ice, but I think the cold would rot quickly with latent heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Where's the big sfc high in QB? Maybe the CAD spots start as ice, but I think the cold would rot quickly with latent heating. Yeah even on the gem there isnt much of a high. Youd probably get some ice up there in CAD land. But at this point it could just as easily be the 50s the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Where's the big sfc high in QB? Maybe the CAD spots start as ice, but I think the cold would rot quickly with latent heating.GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFSWe'd better hope the GFS has an ounce of a clue or the mantle of white will be a mantle of green by Mon nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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