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Emerging signal for storminess Jan 6-8


Typhoon Tip

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snowpack will be OK in the mts I think- water bars and stream crossing- well, that's a different story.  Outside of groomed/snowmaking- wil probably be on hold for a while.

 

Did the ~100F water test just with ~12 oz of water here in Burlington- couldn't melt a hole through it.   This snowpack is already resilient, and it hasn't had time to set up just yet.

 

Yeah I went out to see if I could better clear my path and it is a brick already (Hard to get rid of it being how cold it was recently). There is going to be a reset and I guess we will see what happens synoptically in a few weeks.

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Im outside with hotwater kettles trying to melt this sheet of ice on my driveway but the ground is so cold.  Maybe the air temp will be cold enough later this PM so when that batch of precip out west gets up here it will be a bit of snow, just enough to stick to all this ice so I don't have to wait until later this week.  If its just turning to snow at Stowe it will be close to get down here but something to watch.  Deer are trying to find apples in my orchard and with the deep powder it was a lot of work but they were having some success. The frozen glacier will put an end to that for awhile.  

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This would be sweet

 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.

OUT AHEAD...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AREAS OF FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAIN ALLOW FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. BELIEVE THERE IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR
THUNDER.

BEHIND...TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TO WHICH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFICULT TIME CATCHING UP ON. BEST GUIDANCE IS ON
THE HRRR THOUGH ITS DELAY DOES NOT CAPTURE THE PRESENT COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW OVER ALBANY. IT IS LIKELY THE FORECAST DOES
NOT MERIT THE OUTCOME. RATHER IT BEARS WATCHING THE SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERSPREADING THE
COLDER AIR SLIDING IN UNDERNEATH. ALREADY REPORTS OF SNOW OVER THE
BERKSHIRES HAS BEEN GATHERED AND AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT IT IS
LIKELY WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL DO THE BEST TO MODIFY THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. WESTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT GUSTY UP TO AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO H8 OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE.
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care to retract about you saying I called for wall to wall cold and snow? The pattern at times was very similar and in fact many many much more talented people than you, Jerry or I referred to the similarities. Reload times, congrats on 60,get out in the Mud and enjoy.

 

Nah.

Made it 62F.  Much easier in the wallet on the heating bill.

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Kevin, you cannot use Tolland Hills and ORH hills in the same sentence. No offense. They will have snow, you will not.

 

 

Well at least the east slope N of the pike...S ORH county and west of the spine is probably going to be majority bare (and downtown ORH is probably gioing to be at least swiss cheese...but winter hill will have full coverage I'm sure and up through Holden/Princeton/Sterling area)

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Nah, like Will said east slopes on north and including Ray and here at work. Still snowcover.

 

Even Weymouth is less torched than the pics out of NE CT, you should have 40-50% coverage this evening, still doing OK in immediate metro south, waiting for FROPA to start to mitigate carnage. I'm still anxiously rooting the front on, enough of a pack that I want to preserve it for this cold snap, dont give an F that it gets warmer at the end of the week, Id like to keep a halfway respectable wintry appeal and we just might if this front hurries up.

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Even Weymouth is less torched than the pics out of NE CT, you should have 40-50% coverage this evening, still doing OK in immediate metro south, waiting for FROPA to start to mitigate carnage. I'm still anxiously rooting the front on, enough of a pack that I want to preserve it for this cold snap, dont give an F that it gets warmer at the end of the week, Id like to keep a halfway respectable wintry appeal and we just might if this front hurries up.

 

Yeah, still some decent pack here. 

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I love how you try to melt everyone else's snow when yours gets torched.

 

 

Misery loves company.

 

Most of us down here will lose it on the weekend proabbly, but it is nice to keep mostly white ground for the upcoming cold shot. If there's one thing I hate worse than a torch in mid winter, its bitter cold with bare frozen ground. I'd prefer a torch over that.

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