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Emerging signal for storminess Jan 6-8


Typhoon Tip

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Is this event being considered an ice storm by the media down there or something?!

lol...idk why he is keeping this going. I think he is trying to claim a victory. He said this would be an ice storm days ago and I said not without a good sfc high. When I read "ice storm" I think legit ice storm criteria, like you guys had in Dec, or at least close to it. If he had said we'd have the typical period of in-situ CAD icing I would've agreed.

We've been hovering at 32F for the last 5 hours after a few good hours of icing, but there hasn't been much glazing since midnight. Mod/hvy rain at 32F doesn't help accretion either. This snow pack will be ultra bullet proof once it ices up again tonight though. Hopefully we minimize the 40s today.

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Kevin, that's the point. What today doesn't finish next weekend will. Mid 40s and slowly rising with fog now. Not a recipe to keep snow although I suspect I have some left after fropa.....too much to melt in12 hours.

 

I think thte high ratios will be your undoing here.  It's great to have if for accumulations, but on the flip side, tthere's a whole lot less moisture to melt away.

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Slick slick and slicker out there.  Temps climbing into the mid 30s now, but was 33.5F when I left the house and cold roadways FTL.  There was enough ice or sleet or something for the plow to move around and the whole drive was just crunching ice.  Nothing on any trees or cars or elevated surfaces though.

 

Snow loss has been minimal so far... I had left the 2.5" of arctic sand on one snow board to see how long it would last, and it was only down a half inch or so.  That 9:1 ratio snow has some staying power and snow depth still around 8" at home.  But the real damage will be the next 6 hours or so.

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I think thte high ratios will be your undoing here.  It's great to have if for accumulations, but on the flip side, tthere's a whole lot less moisture to melt away.

 

Its all about the liquid equiv in the snowpack... high ratios will melt quickly at first, but it'll slow down.  If you get 1" of QPF and 20" of snow, and another person gets 1" of QPF and 10" of snow... they should both melt out at roughly the same time given the same set of conditions.  That's why you'll usually see J.Spin often reference the liquid in the snowpack and that even in a rain event, if you can add liquid to the snowpack its still sort of a net gain in that "staying power" department.

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Kevin, that's the point. What today doesn't finish next weekend will. Mid 40s and slowly rising with fog now. Not a recipe to keep snow although I suspect I have some left after fropa.....too much to melt in12 hours.

Jerry we're both headed for 60. This has busted even warmer than mets thought. This is as bad as the Xmas torch. Noone forecast this  much warmth

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Slick slick and slicker out there.  Temps climbing into the mid 30s now, but was 33.5F when I left the house and cold roadways FTL.  There was enough ice or sleet or something for the plow to move around and the whole drive was just crunching ice.  Nothing on any trees or cars or elevated surfaces though.

 

Snow loss has been minimal so far... I had left the 2.5" of arctic sand on one snow board to see how long it would last, and it was only down a half inch or so.  That 9:1 ratio snow has some staying power and snow depth still around 8" at home.  But the real damage will be the next 6 hours or so.

 

I'll be eagerly looking for the windshift.  Eastern folks are getting hit with warmer temps over a longer period of time with more snow on the ground.

 

Western folks down here have less snow on the ground but a shorter period of time in the torch.

 

Net result is likely to be the same.

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This winter gets a c- or maybe a c so far. Snowfall has been decent and cold has been good but the warmth and cutter ruin it . Hopefully the 2nd half performs

Agree. I would rather have a pattern with strong blocking and temps not as cold if it means we have a shot at monster storms. I hate the cold cutter cold pattern. Now we have to throw in a cold cutter cold torch pattern too.
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